richmondsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 <br />Still think RIC is going to be mostly rain. I don't think the band of snow that will develop with the upper low will be as far south as RIC is. Could see some snow showers at the end maybe. ><; <img src='http://img.amwx.us/public/style_emoticons/default/arrowheadsmiley.png' class='bbc_emoticon' alt='' /><br /><br /><br /><br />Despite the trends of the 18z models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Chances that everyone is pissed at whatever DCA records for this storm: 90% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Chances that everyone is pissed at whatever DCA records for this storm: 90% dca is so lame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Feb/ 2 was am awful storm if you lived in DC, but noone really cared cause the Big Dog was already being majorly hyped as being right around the corner. Forecasts were for 3 to 6 inches and WSW were up, but the gradient across the city was among the steepest I have ever seen. From about Columbia Heights-Adams Morgan south to the Potomac River there was maybe a half-inch accumulation on the grass and nothing on the pavement from that storm, despite constant snowfall from like 5 p.m. to midnight. But I remember driving home that evening late and by the time you got to Upper Northwest there was a plowable 5 inches on everything. Just something to think about for this storm if someone has to make a forecast and using that as a possible comparision. May want to make a special exclusion zone for much of the city if things look similar to that storm regards to temps, which seems like a strong possibility. Yeah, that was a good example of what I noted before. We had about 1/2" of clear slop here on the grass IIRC. I drove up to North Arlington and it was one of those winter wonderlands. These types of events are certainly more common late February into March. I remember something similar from March 1st or 2nd perhaps 5 years ago where it snowed for hours and nothing, but that was a more region-wide fail I believe. Chances that everyone is pissed at whatever DCA records for this storm: 90% That doesn't mean it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yeah, that was a good example of what I noted before. We had about 1/2" of clear slop here on the grass IIRC. I drove up to North Arlington and it was one of those winter wonderlands. These types of events are certainly more common late February into March. I remember something similar from March 1st or 2nd perhaps 5 years ago where it snowed for hours and nothing, but that was a more region-wide fail I believe. I think you must be confusing 2/3 with another storm. Even DCA managed to get over 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Feb/ 2 was am awful storm if you lived in DC, but noone really cared cause the Big Dog was already being majorly hyped as being right around the corner. Forecasts were for 3 to 6 inches and WSW were up, but the gradient across the city was among the steepest I have ever seen. From about Columbia Heights-Adams Morgan south to the Potomac River there was maybe a half-inch accumulation on the grass and nothing on the pavement from that storm, despite constant snowfall from like 5 p.m. to midnight. But I remember driving home that evening late and by the time you got to Upper Northwest there was a plowable 5 inches on everything. Just something to think about for this storm if someone has to make a forecast and using that as a possible comparision. May want to make a special exclusion zone for much of the city if things look similar to that storm regards to temps, which seems like a strong possibility. Sounds quite odd, since DCA got 3.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cajuncook Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Forecasts were for 3 to 6 inches and WSW were up, but the gradient across the city was among the steepest I have ever seen. To be fair I wasn't model-hawking at the time (and I was just two weeks into my first undergrad dynamics course...), but I don't remember there being a strong forecast for snow until the day of the storm. I thought HPC had DCA at 10% for >4 inches the night before and it suddenly jumped to 40+% the day of. So if I'm recalling properly, that was what made that storm enjoyable to me. I'm not sure if we can really be upset with the same accumulation outcome (3-5" wet snow) from this one given the surface progs as this point in time (seasonal trend BS aside, too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 yeah feb 2-3 wasnt bad but it didnt really stick to roads and melted fairly fast. i barely remember that storm though overall. it was pretty in the a.m. with everything caked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's a first stab at some estimates: DCA: 2-4" BWI: 3-5" Areas just north and west of each city will see more. The jackpot will be in an area bounded by Leesburg, Hanover, PA, Greencastle, PA and Winchester. If this trends a bit further north, someone in Southern Adams and York counties will do very well. They always do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I only remarked on Feb. 2 to point out everyone needs to keep expectations in check with this one, despite what models say. A degree or two temp difference could be difference of 1 inch or six, especially around 95. Some forecasts will undoubtedly bust, either way too high or low. I would go low, an hope no one blames u if it's an over achiever, which I could see happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I honestly don't have a feel for this storm...I know that the GFS and NAM have trended towards some goodness but even still they are just now getting there while the euro has been steady eddy and frankly not snowy. I want it to snow and accumulate as bad as anyone......my fingers are crossed. Good luck all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
haudidoody Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think you must be confusing 2/3 with another storm. Even DCA managed to get over 3". Probably, I wish LWX had a decent archive. I could point out some of these storms I was referencing. As is, I only remember bits and pieces about the storms, not when they occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pojrzsho Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just got back from work. The last thing I checked before I left home early this morning were the 6z runs. At that point it was encouraging to see the NAM show a chance of some true back end snow....but it was just one run. Then to come home and see both the 18z GFS and NAM show a shot at good back end snow, was very encouraging. I would be very pleased with a 2 to 4 " event, IF it panned out. ....00z soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS snowfall without standard 10:1 ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I honestly don't have a feel for this storm...I know that the GFS and NAM have trended towards some goodness but even still they are just now getting there while the euro has been steady eddy and frankly not snowy. I want it to snow and accumulate as bad as anyone......my fingers are crossed. Good luck all You seem to be in reverse psychology mode. Even the "steady" Euro gives you 5 inches or more of snow as the ULL swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Weather channel has us hitting 50 tomorrow and rain and 41 on Weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTutton Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 What ratio is that using? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 18z GFS snowfall without standard 10:1 ratio If not 10:1, what is the ratio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You seem to be in reverse psychology mode. Even the "steady" Euro gives you 5 inches or more of snow as the ULL swings through. It's possible...I have been trying to remain distant and with low expectations...I get what the models are saying but I just don't quite feel comfortable yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 If not 10:1, what is the ratio? Its the accumulation you get from analizing everything, so the ratio would change, its better than the 10:1 ratio maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well, well, well....what have we here?? Funny story. I went online to show my co-workers how this would be a rainstorm regardless of what they were hearing. So, what do I do? Check the latest 18Z models, and I ended up stuttering for the rest of the afternoon. I've got no choice but to be balls out all in. This might be my only chance this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Its the accumulation you get from analizing everything, so the ratio would change, its better than the 10:1 ratio maps. well there is a 2-3 inch "snowhole" in central MD, so I guess this storm is going to go just like the rest of season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 <br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Snow to RAIN? If anything it will be switching from rain to SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 For once I finally feel some confidence that my area will get a decent hit. I told you all a week ago to "book it" as I am out of town. What else is new. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Has channel 9 looked at any models today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Has channel 9 looked at any models today? To be fair it was from this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 They had their second string met in their tonight talking about all rain for DC then showing a map with 3" of snow accumulaton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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