lbchandler Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I could see it getting wetter and maybe getting colder but the latter is more iffy. If the nam still shows snow inside of 24 hrs, I'll start getting excited. Right now it's still too much of a thread the needle deal for most of us. Where you live, you might be OK anyway sinc eyou're farther away from the ocean. DC needs help. Any possibility of ice around CHO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rainstorm Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Same here! Looking to join! welcome to the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its a whiff for NYC/NE... throw it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 66 hr nam does gove us some snow as the upper center passes by and the heights and temps collapse but its pretty late in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The 66 hr nam does gove us some snow as the upper center passes by and the heights and temps collapse but its pretty late in the game. Not sure anyone can buy into these solutions yet given the huge changes every six hours. The 06Z NAM gave some areas 15 inches of snow and now we get this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Fox 5 Morning DC weather just said starting early morning with a mix then rain S & E, snow N & W of DC, ending as about 6 hours of snow from about 6PM - Midnight. FWIW. That's just a premature forecast. No way they can be confident in that right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The nam surface looks weird when compared to the 500h center. I'm not sure what it means. It certainly has lots fo convection out with the eastern low. That might be right but could also be an artifact of the latent heating from its convective scheme. This run does illustrate how much this is a thread the needle deal which around hee usually doesn't work that well. Looking at the upper air everything converges at northern GA, AL area at 54 when the surface looks like it wants to start popping a surface low there. Could we be looking at the northern low escaping with a secondary forming to the south? Or is this the NAM not sure whether to capture the low or not so it leaves it strung out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Not sure anyone can buy into these solutions yet given the huge changes every six hours. The 06Z NAM gave some areas 15 inches of snow and now we get this. I agree but for us to get a big snowstorm is still less likely than a rain to possibly ending as snow storm. I suspect that the NAM surface is goofy based on its 500h pattern but that's a guess as this year quite a few lows have elongated like the nam is forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's just a premature forecast. No way they can be confident in that right now. My forecast is for rain or snow with liquid equivalent amounts ranging from .10 inches to 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg81988 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Does hr 66 have snow for ric? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Double-barreled lows at 72h? Really NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looking at the upper air everything converges at northern GA, AL area at 54 when the surface looks like it wants to start popping a surface low there. Could we be looking at the northern low escaping with a secondary forming to the south? Or is this the NAM not sure whether to capture the low or not so it leaves it strung out? I don't know, it sure has lots of rainfall/convection with that initial low. That might be right but the latent heat from the convective scheme could also be lowering pressures too much too far east. I'm not smart enough to know whether it's real or memorex. I do remember the jan 2000 storm had issues because the latent heat wasn't handled properly among other things. I'm not saying that is true here, I don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well north of philly doesn't get much of anything on this run. This solution is definitely an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't know, it sure has lots of rainfall/convection with that initial low. That might be right but the latent heat from the convective scheme could also be lowering pressures too much too far east. I'm not smart enough to know whether it's real or memorex. I do remember the jan 2000 storm had issues because the latent heat wasn't handled properly among other things. I'm not saying that is true here, I don't know. Don't let SNOWLUVER from CWG see you say that you don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't know, it sure has lots of rainfall/convection with that initial low. That might be right but the latent heat from the convective scheme could also be lowering pressures too much too far east. I'm not smart enough to know whether it's real or memorex. I do remember the jan 2000 storm had issues because the latent heat wasn't handled properly among other things. I'm not saying that is true here, I don't know. 06 Z had a very similar look as well. Thought that didn't look right then and I don't think the 12Z looks right now. But you have to wonder when you have 2 runs back to back like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06 Z had a very similar look as well. Thought that didn't look right then and I don't think the 12Z looks right now. But you have to wonder when you have 2 runs back to back like this. 06Z was totally different at the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 front end monsoon followed by some upper action? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 06Z was totally different at the surface. Upper air was very similar with the elongated dual structured low on the surface as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The sref members as a whole look good, as far as precip that is. There are, however, two members that are a complete whiff, as in no precip, for the NVA and CMD areas. As skittish as we are, and with what the NAM just did to northern MD, its hard to not be apprehensive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think most of us have believed in a decent precip event for almost a week now. I never took the OTS runs seriously. Not saying they weren't possible but living in this area for the better part of 35 years kept me pretty confident on a decent precip maker given the consistent H5 evolution. The bigger challenge has been temps of course. Not overly impressed with the temps regardless of the track and strength of the low. The earlier post about the front end would be more organized if the high to the N was in place was a great post. More resistence = more lift. Very easy to understand. I can't see how we get 1 - 2" of precip without a stronger high to the N. It looks like the majority of our precip will be driven by dynamics and the strength and position of the H5 as it moves through. This is what makes this a fun storm. A lot of things can happen with a relatively potent surface low and a great H5 track. This is probably our only saving grace when hoping to overcome the obvious temp issues. It will be great if we do get accum snow near the cities but the odds are a bit stacked against us at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My forecast is for rain or snow with liquid equivalent amounts ranging from .10 inches to 3 inches. Don't go out on a limb so early... I hereby predict that you are right. In all seriousness, I think some mixing is probably inevitable, the issue of course being whether its rain with a few flakes or vice versa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Fox 5 Morning DC weather just said starting early morning with a mix then rain S & E, snow N & W of DC, ending as about 6 hours of snow from about 6PM - Midnight. FWIW. I'm not sold until WB 50 jumps on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT seems pretty gungho for north and west of the cities on his first call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT first call southern portions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Babybee2010 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I will add my been lurking for a while and I also love reading everything you all say. I will now go back to lurking and reading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey there...long time lurker here....hopefully everyone gets feet of snow!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 went out to my garage comp. and found this on it not bad from 264 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT can issue a forecast in the future? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 "Issued 1am Jan 25" Wow...DT's forecast of the future! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT can issue a forecast in the future? His north and south maps seem to mildly contradict each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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