Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Should be tucked in closer if its stronger at H5 i would think..... Normally yes but the 5h is in the process of jumping to the vorticity....so if that's further NE that's where the 5h will end up and that's where everything else ends up too in this depiction. Part of that is driven by the strength of the vorticity and in this run it came in a smidge weaker so it's weaker through the layers, a it all happens a smidge NE. Not saying this is right but this is going to be the game, the vorticity max coming off the coast will drive the entire kaboose just like it did the other day with the big difference being this one is much wetter and further north to begin with, and that it's not on an E or ENE track, it's coming NE. The big challenge will be in that intricate timing. Ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ALY is livening up their AFD's the last couple of days. SO...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM CATCHES UP WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BAROCLINICITY...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN A SOLID SNOWSTORM. AREAS FROM POU TO NW CT TO AROUND PSF AND BRATTLEBORO VT COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHEN THE BIG FIST OF A LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO YOUR REGION...SOMEPLACE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...AND AGAIN AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE POU TO NW CT TO PSF TO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN VT...AND POINTS EAST. Yeah this could be nice for the east slopes for those reasons. Don't fret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Meanwhile I bet you would be pleased with anything over 8" for Noho. Where do I sign for my 8"? Actually I will confess, looking at the NAM VV maps, and hearing Feb '01 bandied about, I am tempted to hold out for more. On second thought, give me my 8" and send the leftovers to the poor souls in NNE along with warm wishes. Finally, skiing imminent!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ryan not making any posts/ideas or calls..Come on step to the plate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just took a closer look at the GFS. Looks like the mid level low is *deeper* but not as tight. Like I said before, looks like the trough is a little broader. So we end up with more speed shear related to the jet, than we do directional shear related with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ryan not making any posts/ideas or calls..Come on step to the plate Been on the road oday will post thoughts tonight... hopefully before you go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 Rolling right along. Will give this thread another hour or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheetah440 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Again...going to be a great storm. Unlike many, I actually enjoy the time it is snowing better than the chase. If I get 9 inches and Ray gets 20, fine. If I get 3 inches of slop and Ray gets 15, I'll be pizzed off. these things usually make me giddy and excited, but this one is turning out to be a big pain in the ass. I hope my wife remembers how to use a shovel, it's been a looooong time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Any dryslut issues to be watched for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z gefs over ack...then sorta stretch east of cc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 http://www.americanw...-january-11-12/ Rolling right along. Will give this thread another hour or so. LOL..giving directions to the mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z gefs over ack...then sorta stretch east of cc AWT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Been on the road oday will post thoughts tonight... hopefully before you go to bed. That gives you about 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BANG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Just took a closer look at the GFS. Looks like the mid level low is *deeper* but not as tight. Like I said before, looks like the trough is a little broader. So we end up with more speed shear related to the jet, than we do directional shear related with the low. The 18z GFS OP did something very similar yesterday and dumped it at 0z FWIW. The 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW ens mean is right over ACK it seems. Very juicy too. Looks like the op laid an egg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm thinking the winds are actually gonna rip pretty good even inland as this thing deeps so rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 BANG! A little different than the op, eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 woah!!!! BANG! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 That gives you about 2 hours. 3 I already know his forecast..10-16 with iso amts to 18 is what he would issue on air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ens mean really beefed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here's the 72 QPF. The other day CoastalWx/Scott was telling me that the GEFS were less meaningful to him at this range vs the OP. I'm presuming that's resolution but I'm not sure I got an answer on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW ens mean is right over ACK it seems. Very juicy too. Looks like the op laid an egg. Where can I find the 18z ensemble members? I see they're not there on e-wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Where can I find the 18z ensemble members? I see they're not there on e-wall. They'll be on ewall in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 3 I already know his forecast..10-16 with iso amts to 18 is what he would issue on air keV thanks for the update, just got in, awesome skiing day at Beast, not much cover up there lots of wind blown bare spots at 2 k. 12-18 lollis of 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ens mean really beefed up I'm also starting to think that as this goes to town, we may see the big ccb closer to the low center. It's also timing well for our area (general sne area) for rapid cyclogenesis and heavy precipitation development. That's what we would probably expect with such quick deepening. Take a look at the 15z eta on psu ewall. It shows this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ETauntonBob needs to continue the winter good juju in a new thread Where is Ginx? Skiing at the Beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastBayWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At this point, the only two questions left in my mind are: 1) Where does the Coastal Front setup- ie Cape Cod Canal, Rt 24 corridor, or I-95? and 2) Where does the CCB/ deformation band setup? I should have a good idea tomorrow late afternoon about where the CF will be, it usually sets up 12 hours before the event even begins. The CCB is still a wild card. If the rapid intensification happens off the Jersey Shore, NYC/ SW Ct will cash in, if it happens south of Montauk, eastern CT, RI and Eastern 1/2 Mass will cash in. The ENE movement after intensification takes place looks valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS ens mean really beefed up There's your 25-30 call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 10, 2011 Author Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL..giving directions to the mod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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