Hazey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the Reg at 36hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Bustin into the PINKS! lol at the discontinuity between BOX and OKX from RI into southern CT I'm surprised at where Taunton puts the jackpot. I would bump things up over NE MA, and trim back in southern RI, and a little less in ORH Co Your first brew is on me in BWI next summer. I just wish the cf would make it a but further in than I think it will, but 0 complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It looks freakishly similar to the one I made 3 hours ago! Same delineation for 8-12 and 12-16 and I based it on the Euro Did you post it on here? I usually enjoy seeing your accumulation maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ok....so it seems the NW portion of the dry slot zone is often the best place to be, then. It honestly depends on the exact setup of each storm....no two storms are exactly alike and there isn't exactly a set rule we can use to say where the jackpot is every storm. In the blizzard of 1996, New Bedford, MA (and other southeast areas) drslotted....it almost made it to me. They got 27" while I got 15"....so the "rule" didn't work out so well that time. Parts of E MA actually briefly dryslotted or came close (precip started to break up a bit) in 12/9/05 but then got 14-16" jackpot amounts anyway as the ccb from hell destroyed them. I know your BY didn't dryslot but areas to your south that still had high amounts flirted with it. A lot of it depends on the orientation of the CCB....if it starts out more ENE to WSW and then tilts over time to almost NNE to SSW...then areas who eventually get dryslotted could still be in the max as they are piling it up rapidly for hours before it reaches areas NW of them....only to kiss them for a couple hours and then collapse back SE. Its something we'll have to monitor as we get closer. On the whole though, the mid-level tracks don't get much better for a good portion of SNE as stands right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is what I was saying, yesterday.....storms like this drip 30" in 12 hrs sometimes.....Earth light got just over 30" in about 12 hrs in that blizzard. NEVER expect that, but it's not impossible and is VERY localized. any indications on ratio's with this one..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is the Reg at 36hrs 48 is out too. euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 any indications on ratio's with this one..... 10 weenies to 1 mouth(yours) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Exactly..this is precisely how you get those mega amts. You don't want it to stall out. You'd never expect that much ..but every single one of us here..including the mets knows there will be some 25-30 inch amts in a few lucky zones. Noone knows where..but we all know those big numbers will occur Here is my call on where that will end up: Jackpot around the Norwood area....20"+......secondary, larger and relatively unexpected one in N ORH CO, SW NH....that is where you will see your 30" c*mshot.....Jaffrey, Princeton....shutout to Cpick's wawa fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Canadian regional looks like it goes east of ACK perhaps, and then north towards GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings up through NYC and LI. It won't be long now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is my call on where that will end up: Jackpot around the Norwood area....20"+......secondary, larger and relatively unexpected one in N ORH CO, SW NH....that is where you will see your 30" c*mshot.....Jaffrey, Princeton....shutout to Cpick's wawa fetish. One place we know it won't end up is MBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Damn RGEM is nearly a perfect SNE hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 48 is out too. euro Now that's a whuppin'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JR from WHDH pegs 12-16" in a 50 mile wide band from PVD-BOS. Here it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Guys - At least for MBY - This will be HISTORIC if I can pull 15" out of this. The reason being: 2 15" Snowstorms within 1 month of each other - 1. The Incredible December of 1945 had 2. 2. December and January of the 1947-1948 Winter had 2. 3. The UnREAL February of 1969 had 2 (20"+ too) 4. January and February of 1978 of course had 2 (20"+ of course) Very Close Call on January and February of 1994 and February of 2003. But THAT is all. Some Huge company there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It honestly depends on the exact setup of each storm....no two storms are exactly alike and there isn't exactly a set rule we can use to say where the jackpot is every storm. In the blizzard of 1996, New Bedford, MA (and other southeast areas) drslotted....it almost made it to me. They got 27" while I got 15"....so the "rule" didn't work out so well that time. Parts of E MA actually briefly dryslotted or came close (precip started to break up a bit) in 12/9/05 but then got 14-16" jackpot amounts anyway as the ccb from hell destroyed them. I know your BY didn't dryslot but areas to your south that still had high amounts flirted with it. A lot of it depends on the orientation of the CCB....if it starts out more ENE to WSW and then tilts over time to almost NNE to SSW...then areas who eventually get dryslotted could still be in the max as they are piling it up rapidly for hours before it reaches areas NW of them....only to kiss them for a couple hours and then collapse back SE. Its something we'll have to monitor as we get closer. On the whole though, the mid-level tracks don't get much better for a good portion of SNE as stands right now. Will, thank you; this answers my questions about as extensively and thoroughly as possible.....exactly what I was looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One place we know it won't end up is MBY At least this is one event to where even if you don't jackpot you're still doing pretty damn well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Lol...you guys are talking 30"? I doubt it...but 20" jackpot isn't out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You guys are gonna love this. The Reg at 48hrs For those of us (me) who can't read those at all--what's it show? Also, how does it compare to prior run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is my call on where that will end up: Jackpot around the Norwood area....20"+......secondary, larger and relatively unexpected one in N ORH CO, SW NH....that is where you will see your 30" c*mshot.....Jaffrey, Princeton....shutout to Cpick's wawa fetish. First call...for our backyards? FMBY...what you say (+2) j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It honestly depends on the exact setup of each storm....no two storms are exactly alike and there isn't exactly a set rule we can use to say where the jackpot is every storm. In the blizzard of 1996, New Bedford, MA (and other southeast areas) drslotted....it almost made it to me. They got 27" while I got 15"....so the "rule" didn't work out so well that time. Parts of E MA actually briefly dryslotted or came close (precip started to break up a bit) in 12/9/05 but then got 14-16" jackpot amounts anyway as the ccb from hell destroyed them. I know your BY didn't dryslot but areas to your south that still had high amounts flirted with it. A lot of it depends on the orientation of the CCB....if it starts out more ENE to WSW and then tilts over time to almost NNE to SSW...then areas who eventually get dryslotted could still be in the max as they are piling it up rapidly for hours before it reaches areas NW of them....only to kiss them for a couple hours and then collapse back SE. Its something we'll have to monitor as we get closer. On the whole though, the mid-level tracks don't get much better for a good portion of SNE as stands right now. Yeah that's true as well. Overall people shouldn't rip and read qpf because it may unnecessarily excite them or disappoint. It's good to see some that are looking beyond qpf and trying to understand the inner working of these systems. There is also things like OES and low level frontogenesis that can throw qpf off. I do think that sometimes snowfall is underdone in areas that get into the good mid level frontogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings up through NYC and LI. It won't be long now. CT will be getting them around 11 tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Exactly..this is precisely how you get those mega amts. You don't want it to stall out. You'd never expect that much ..but every single one of us here..including the mets knows there will be some 25-30 inch amts in a few lucky zones. Noone knows where..but we all know those big numbers will occur seems a bit low assuming we use the MPM Kev conversion ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One place we know it won't end up is MBY Mine, either......I don't jackpot with a with the cf pinned along the immediate n shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Here is my call on where that will end up: Jackpot around the Norwood area....20"+......secondary, larger and relatively unexpected one in N ORH CO, SW NH....that is where you will see your 30" c*mshot.....Jaffrey, Princeton....shutout to Cpick's wawa fetish. I think I love you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Give me some heavy snow. Good chance of coming close to a foot. I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Haha beat me to it. Wow nice hit for you guys. Now if I can get it to start sliding ENE from there, I'll have a nice storm 48 is out too. euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This thread is too long....Bob, want to continue with the new one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 First call...for our backyards? FMBY...what you say (+2) j/k First call: 8-16" 2nd call: 9-18" Final call tmw night, after wk..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 10 weenies to 1 mouth(yours) Did you get drunk at daycare today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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