Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Take a deep breath and suck a bun LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS and EURO and respective ensembles do not agree with the NAM..at least yet. Take solace in that. Also Newport is in a better spot than the cape as far as any changeover is concerned.. at least with this storm You'd be surprised about the southern tip of Newport's little micro-climate. Yes, we're farther west than you and this should make a difference. But...Newport's on an island in the middle of Narragansett Bay comprised of Newport and two smaller towns. Last storm..the 26th....south Newport only had 6 inches and we changed to rain while the upper part of the island stayed all snow and hovered at 33-34 while I hit 36...while ALL the towns to the north, west, and even east had 10-11 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Brotha got a lock? if I could bind and gag it and lock it in my basement I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I was living there from 88 - 93. And while I remember some good snows, you may be right. It may have been 1 or 2 per year, and the one or two big ones that happened over the course of 5 years stick out the most. The biggest storm of this era was Veterans Day 1987. Not sure if you were there for that one. Feburary, or I believe Janiary 1988 had back to back snowstorms the sam week that dumped over a foot combined and March 1993 dumped about 8-9 inches on Bristol but in the years you lived there I don't remember there being a 10 inch plus event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think they run it down to 4km? The NAM is 12km and Euro 16km?? I may be wrong with this..someone else can chime in. They run it down to 4km, but only out to 36 in that mode I think. Either that or it takes so long to integrate that the new runs are coming in before it has a chance to finish... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not afraid to say it..some places will pull 30 out of this. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There always seems to exist a disconnect between the QPF distribution and the mid level depictions, in the sense that the QPF jackpot is always within the nw part of the mid level dry slot's progression. 18z NAM isa perfect example of this phenomenon in that it bullseyes mby, however a gander at the mid level plots reveals that I eventually become enveloped in the dry slot, thus it seems that that bullseye is displaced about ~40 miles to the se of where it should be. Thoughts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not afraid to say it..some places will pull 30 out of this. Yup Higher elevation areas I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I find it amusing that we have most models starting to lock in a widespread 10"-15" snow event and people are concerned about somehow getting "screwed". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not afraid to say it..some places will pull 30 out of this. Yup I've been equivocating via references to the blizzard in the form of questions to mets; very stealthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 EXCELLANT DENDRITIC GROWTH IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG LIFT...20 MICROBARS PER SECOND OR ROUGHLY 70 MB PER HOUR...OVER CT-RI- SOUTHEAST MASS. TEMPS ON THE OUTER CAPE AND NANTUCKET LOOK MARGINAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION. QPF/TEMPS/LIFT SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH HEAVIEST AMOUNTS IN CT- RI AND ADJACENT MASS. HEAVIEST SNOW SHOULD BE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phishn Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Updated NWS Map 4:18 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There always seems to exist a disconnect between the QPF distribution and the mid level depictions, in the sense that the QPF jackpot is always within the nw part of the mid level dry slot's progression. 18z NAM isa perfect example of this phenomenon in that it bullseyes mby, however a gander at the mid level plots reveals that I eventually become enveloped in the dry slot, thus it seems that that bullseye is displaced about ~40 miles to the se of where it should be. Thoughts?? The bullseye is often just NW of the dryslot because that area stays in the heavy snow the longest.....as the band pivots back to the east. Each storm is different but that is a common occurrence. You can of course get secondary maxes from banding further NW and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I find it amusing that we have most models starting to lock in a widespread 10"-15" snow event and people are concerned about somehow getting "screwed". Agreed, compared to the last three storms, it looks like everyone gets to play in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I'm not afraid to say it..some places will pull 30 out of this. Yup If someone can squeeze 20-22 hours out of...maybe. I think we still need it to trend waaaay slower for that to even be in the discussion. Shoot for 20 first, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Anyone slightly concerned with the massive dryslot that develops in ESNE at 48? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 20 minutes old - this went up a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 There always seems to exist a disconnect between the QPF distribution and the mid level depictions, in the sense that the QPF jackpot is always within the nw part of the mid levels dry slot's progression. 18z NAM is perfect example of this phenomenon in that it bullseyes mby, however the a gander at the mid level plots reveals that I eventually become enveloped in the dry slot, this it seems that that bullseye is displaced about ~40 miles to the se of where it should be. Thoughts?? The qpf is 6 hour increments, the 700mb rh is time ending that hour. So you can have a dry slot over Wilmington and 1" of qpf for 0z Thu NAM, for ex, if the precip fell in less than 6 hours, between 18z and 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If the euro is right we do great here same as gfs. Nam was the worst model verifying in the past week so it's for fun only until supported. i think the nam has support from Meso models and i think most mets are not waving off the nam like you may be doing. this thing may want to demolish NYC. i.e tuck in 70 M south of central Long island. i.e east of toms river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 If someone can squeeze 20-22 hours out of...maybe. I think we still need it to trend waaaay slower for that to even be in the discussion. Shoot for 20 first, lol. It is going to snow for that long or longer. But some places are going to get 12-18 inches in 6-8 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL...this is when you grab your balls and weenie..really your whole package and just smash people across the face with it Your package wasn't packing a very strong punch on saturday night when you forecast 4-8/5-10 for the Cape/South Coast while most areas only had 1-3...except for a couple spot 5 inch marks which Messenger had to drive all over the Cape to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Updated NWS Map 4:18 PM Looks the same as this morning's map for most areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The bullseye is often just NW of the dryslot because that area stays in the heavy snow the longest.....as the band pivots back to the east. Each storm is different but that is a common occurrence. You can of course get secondary maxes from banding further NW and such. That is my point.....it bulleyes me, but I make it into the dry slot; models do that consistently. The jackpot should be over N ORH co and SW NH on that run, not mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JR from WHDH pegs 12-16" in a 50 mile wide band from PVD-BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Your package wasn't packing a very strong punch on saturday night when you forecast 4-8/5-10 for the Cape/South Coast while most areas only had 1-3...except for a couple spot 5 inch marks which Messenger had to drive all over the Cape to find. How come you're not calling out all the mets who called for that..or BOX who had WSW up for that area? My other zones in SNE were on point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I find it amusing that we have most models starting to lock in a widespread 10"-15" snow event and people are concerned about somehow getting "screwed". THE MAIN REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IS THE DEGREE OF MIXING OR CHANGE TO RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. NANTUCKET IS NOT IN THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH BUT WILL HAVE THE STRONG WINDS. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks the same as this morning's map for most areas? It's beefed up about 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Warnings up now for the Taunton forecast area. I only see watches.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 20 minutes old - this went up a bit The western edge of Upton's map looks a little low for the City and Bergen/Essex Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Well I pretty much went balls out with my map, Kevin certainly can't say I'm too low on this one. I'm feeling this one very well, I think there is a GREAT chance I finally see my first 10'' since Feb 12th, 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.