Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's pretty amped thru 30, but it's tough to put any stock in what it does. I think it's way too early to say (i mean it's still 42+ away) that it's definitely going to go anywhere. I have zero trust in the models right now. Agreement be damned. Bended knee if the euro nailed the track from just west of the BM to just se of ACK, precip etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some big changes on the NAM. Much deeper, sharper trough. Looks like mix issues east of the low...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I think its been pretty good...not all that many junk posts...but yeah, the fewer, the better.....the thread fills up as fast as it is and it doesn't need excess junk. Its to be expected we'll get one or two ranters out of the woodwork and a few weenies. Agree. I don't think I've deleted a post yet today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL, NAM is going to go over the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Ratios 8:1 or so near the coast, 10 or 12:1 a little inland, 12 to 15:1 as we get NW sound close? Is there a way to determine this ahead of time? Also, is there a technique for doing a core sample? I have dozens of graduated cylinders that I could pick from if that would help - of course they are mostly shorter than 12"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 nam is going to go right over my head. LOL. Looks kind of like the 06z run. Its not surprising...I'm sure we'll see it wobble a bit back and forth between that type track and further SE....that model in this setup is expected to be on the NW periphery of guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL, NAM is going to go over the Cape. Or even slightly west of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Go team NAM! If the NAM ends up being right, I may have to give it a bit of credit, as of now, I am a little skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM well west of 12Z. I'd like once to see a similar solution run to run....lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I am a bit concerned of a northern edge precip cutoff. you might be right on the edge in Nash-ville. it could be that you get 12" while i get 6" just 20 miles north of you. I don't think it'll be that sharp a gradient. Seems like the precip shield is pretty expansive. I wouldn't worry about that with a track near ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 up the canal. absolute snow bomb for parts of the area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NNE folks cranky today :devilsmiley: You got that right. ;-) Us SNE folks know how you feel, we went through this last year, next year is probably your year to get the big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 UL flow on the coast is even more backed than the previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL, NAM is going to go over the Cape. I don't think I could be clutching it any tighter. God I hope it wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One characteristic of my immediate locale's climo, which I'm sure Will could confirm via an extensive romp with stats, is that I tend to shine in seasons closer to the median and am not prone to as many dead ratters as other areas; however I am vulnerable in historicaly prolific seasons....IOW, my ceiling is not as high as se MA OR ORH (lower variance)....which is ironic because those are the seasons I Iong for. Bottom line is that I am growing increasingly confident that we are instore for a highly anomalous season and the fact that I am consistently NOT jackpotting caters to that point.....to quote Vin Scully after Dave Henderson's late inning blast in gm 4 of the 1986 ALCS......"We're seeing one for the ages here, folks"..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Tough sh**. I write this as Ray. :lmao: That's the funniest damn thing I've ever heard on this board. I raise a drink in your honor. LMAO!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM well west of 12Z. I'd like once to see a similar solution run to run....lol... Just enjoy the 18z porn run. Check out the simulated radar (I happen to love that tool for getting an impression of overall structure) for 42 hours out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Hasnt the NAM been doing this with every storm this year,every run has seen major changes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 One characteristic of my immediate locale's climo, which I'm sure Will could confirm via an extensive romp with stats, is that I tend to shine in seasons closer to the median and am not prone to as many dead ratters as other areas; however I am vulnerable in historicaly prolific seasons....IOW, my ceiling is not as high as se MA OR ORH (lower variance)....which is ironic because those are the seasons I Iong for. Bottom line is that I am growing increasingly confident that we are instore for a highly anomalous season and the fact that I am consistently NOT jackpotting caters to that point.....to quote Vin Scully after Dave Henderson's late inning blast in gm 4 of the 1986 ALCS......"We have one for the ages here, folks"..... As long as the ultimate outcome is more in our favor vs through Buckner's legs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 up the canal. absolute snow bomb for parts of the area though. Looks like 1"+ QPF in 6hrs for Will from 39-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM over the outer cape eventually. Snow graphics ironically nudge the 12-18 line to a broad area from PYM on the SE to GC west and all of CT/RI. Still going so can't tell further north yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 :lmao: That's the funniest damn thing I've ever heard on this board. I raise a drink in your honor. LMAO!! Cheers.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW........ :snowman: Low tracks into the GOM....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 yeah, looks like landfall in SE CT.... wtf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I don't think it'll be that sharp a gradient. Seems like the precip shield is pretty expansive. I wouldn't worry about that with a track near ACK. well if the NAM track taking the low up the CC canal is right, then all bets are off. that would be perfect for both of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GYX issuing Winter Storm Watches for coastal locations per updated AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And now we're inside that magical 48 hour range . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Looks like 1"+ QPF in 6hrs for Will from 39-45. yeah it absolutely crushes that area. it actually rides right up into the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW........ :snowman: Low tracks into the GOM....... please stall... please please please please... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Some big changes on the NAM. Much deeper, sharper trough. Yeah, the 18z/6z NAM have verified far worse than the 18z/6z GFS recently but FWIW, I'm just surprised people are so set on this not changing a ton when we've had nothing but change in tight for a lot of systems this year. It's inside of 48 they've all locked...we were right at that edge today at 12z. Anyway, it's the NAM but it's certainly opening the door back up to a much further NW track. Ski country in NH/ME get nailed. Dry slot over SE MA and warm air intrusion with an 8h low under RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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