Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This is the newer BOX map. Expect that red dot near pawtucket to be over attleboro and about 4 inches less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know that alot of this does not effect most down in SNE but each run we seem to be losing the ENE scoot up this way and are getting more of a NNE track and thats whats bringings us back into the better qpf up here....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chill Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know that alot of this does not effect most down in SNE but each run we seem to be losing the ENE scoot up this way and are getting more of a NNE track and thats whats bringings us back into the better qpf up here....... Hopefully keeps trending this way..... we need every flake we can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wokeupthisam Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 For areas like MBY, S VT and S ME.. I would honestly rather see the NAM come back east a little bit..like Scott said earlier, there is going to be a monster deformation band with this and per the 18z Nam that would be located in central Vermont and NH.. I could see places like laconia an rutland cash in 15-18 on the 18z Nam and s NH and ME get 10-12.. just the nature of the band Yup... not good.. east of 12z... Looks like this is a battle of the meso's vs the long range models. I'd expect a solution in between the NAM and GFS. What a hard forecast for places in W and C NE. The good thing is that we have ALL of the meso's on our side including the Euro. I'll take that any day. Hopefully its just a fluke run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 It's actually it being stronger that's a smidge of the problem. Holds the vorticity longer, by the time it gets further north it's also further east as the entire thing begins to jump. Carbon copy of what happened at the very end the other day IMO but like I said pointless to talk about it, just one of those things to look at tonight at 0z. No changes. 6-12 everywhere west of HYA, all the way through all 3 of our SNE states, 8-16 loli between you weathafella and ktan etc etc lol...if that's the case the model is completely off it's rocker. This solution should not lead to a more OTS track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah...don't mind him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know that alot of this does not effect most down in SNE but each run we seem to be losing the ENE scoot up this way and are getting more of a NNE track and thats whats bringings us back into the better qpf up here....... It still can. It's not like the ensembles or even the OP EC/ENS are infallable. I'm not going to get back into it re the other event and model performance but it busted for a reason and it wasn't because forecasters misread the models....it's because the majority of models botched the transfer. Here's the GFS same time period. It's a subtle change out under us, it holds back the max vorticity just a smidge and it's a little weaker initially so it's able to get a little further NE before it does the wrap up. It's a subtle different off the coast of NJ and south of LI. Doesn't mean it's right, it's going to change a bunch more times but it goes to show how a very small timing difference between 33-39 hours has major effects. No different than what the NAM did in rolling NW some. When people say the m/l is "stronger" sure it is a little. But the vorticity is weaker that spins up the low and it takes it 3-4 hours longer to get organized. Again not saying it's right just saying it's not off the rocker. We just went through this and everyone said the models were wrong right up until the thunderstorms fired 300 miles east of the cape under the new center. Absolutely no sense really going into detail until a change sticks on a run for a few or transfers to the euro etc. Just interesting discussion...actually it's no longer even interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 lol...if that's the case the model is completely off it's rocker. This solution should not lead to a more OTS track. Should be tucked in closer if its stronger at H5 i would think..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ETauntonBob needs to continue the winter good juju in a new thread Where is Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I know that alot of this does not effect most down in SNE but each run we seem to be losing the ENE scoot up this way and are getting more of a NNE track and thats whats bringings us back into the better qpf up here....... And that's what makes us smile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 And that's what makes us smile. Yes it does.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hope NNE gets clobbered (as long as we do in SNE of course...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hope NNE gets clobbered (as long as we do in SNE of course...) Really don't even need to get clobberd, Just give us a decent event we are overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SC48 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Pete Bouchard on channel 7 WHDH just increased amounts 16"+ West Southwest of Boson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 WOW!!! http://www.meteor.ia...am/nam_kbdl.dat Clearly if anyone reports 30 out of this it'll probably be BDL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 I hope NNE gets clobbered (as long as we do in SNE of course...) Screw 'em! They're crabby! Jk. I hope they get nailed early and often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Again...going to be a great storm. Unlike many, I actually enjoy the time it is snowing better than the chase. If I get 9 inches and Ray gets 20, fine. If I get 3 inches of slop and Ray gets 15, I'll be pizzed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Clearly if anyone reports 30 out of this it'll probably be BDL When I looked at the PNS yesterday afternoon I couldn't believe I saw BDL with 3.3''...highest by far in the county...they sometimes seem to come in quite high with events like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Again...going to be a great storm. Unlike many, I actually enjoy the time it is snowing better than the chase. If I get 9 inches and Ray gets 20, fine. If I get 3 inches of slop and Ray gets 15, I'll be pizzed off. And its during the daytime mostly..which is always nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ETauntonBob needs to continue the winter good juju in a new thread Where is Ginx? He called me earlier. Was skiing all day. Said only 3-4 inches at 2k in the Berks lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Again...going to be a great storm. Unlike many, I actually enjoy the time it is snowing better than the chase. If I get 9 inches and Ray gets 20, fine. If I get 3 inches of slop and Ray gets 15, I'll be pizzed off. Bigger spread then the Srefs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Another light snow event coming up Saturday night/Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z GFS ens started...can't wait to see what they have for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 ALY is livening up their AFD's the last couple of days. SO...AS THE NORTHERN STREAM CATCHES UP WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM...BAROCLINICITY...CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY AND UPPER DYNAMICS WILL RESULT IN A SOLID SNOWSTORM. AREAS FROM POU TO NW CT TO AROUND PSF AND BRATTLEBORO VT COULD SEE A FOOT OR MORE OF SNOW BEFORE ENDING LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WHEN THE BIG FIST OF A LOW LEVEL JET PUNCHES INTO YOUR REGION...SOMEPLACE IN THE FORECAST AREA WILL TAKE A BIG HIT...AND AGAIN AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE POU TO NW CT TO PSF TO PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN VT...AND POINTS EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Clearly if anyone reports 30 out of this it'll probably be BDL Meanwhile I bet you would be pleased with anything over 8" for Noho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wwlp is going 6 to 8 for me wtf haha!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 He called me earlier. Was skiing all day. Said only 3-4 inches at 2k in the Berks lol Forgot. He went to see ProLurker at the B'East for Coke Monday Glad he got to do that. How does one save radar loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wwlp is going 6 to 8 for me wtf haha!!? Rip and read the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 wwlp is going 6 to 8 for me wtf haha!!? Brian and crew are on the job and doing their best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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