NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JR on Ch 7 calling for thundersnows also His 3-6" per hour graphic could scare the general public a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18 GFS is more amped up at 500mb but the surface low is further east of 12z? Makes no sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18z GFS going to keep us on our toes. Yup... not good.. east of 12z... Looks like this is a battle of the meso's vs the long range models. I'd expect a solution in between the NAM and GFS. What a hard forecast for places in W and C NE. The good thing is that we have ALL of the meso's on our side including the Euro. I'll take that any day. Hopefully its just a fluke run of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 althouh this too is quite the bomb, i suppose its not out of the realm is a band gets stationary for a while like it did in jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 JR on Ch 7 calling for thundersnows also Yup! Sjould be some embedded areas of thundersnow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 You know the NAM was fun when that ends up being a buzz kill! LOL, you'll do fine I think. The NAM might be the western outlier, but it may be on to something. We have a pretty dynamic system here. So perhaps we see something maybe just west of the euro track? It's possible. 00z tonight should probably nail down the uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18Z always produces something odd one way or the other. This run....both ways. SREFs, Euro, ensembles, call me in the morning. I'm a doctor you know.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Haven't plowed since last February here. Vim Toot But don't you guys wait until there is 6" on the ground to start plowing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS bumped a bit north with the mid-level lows though and as a result QPF is up a tick northward (for NNE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 NAM and GFS low positions are 100 miles apart (different) at 42 hours...18z GEFS is hopefully reassuring Boston from what I saw the 18z/6z gfs verify ok...not as good as the 0z/12z but not bad. I don't think we can really worry about minor shifts at 42 hours. let's see what the 0z brings, the 18z was very reassuring IMO. Nothing is off the table from a track like the NAM to even another decent bump east like we saw inside of 24 hours the other day. We can slice it however we want but in the end it's still a center jump east and those have been problematic for models TO THIS POINT this season. Until proven otherwise come Thursday I see no reason to think that suddenly they're going to nail it this time 2 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18 GFS is more amped up at 500mb but the surface low is further east of 12z? Makes no sense. Yeah I mentioned that. I would not think east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yup... not good.. east of 12z... Looks like this is a battle of the meso's vs the long range models. I'd expect a solution in between the NAM and GFS. What a hard forecast for places in W and C NE. The good thing is that we have ALL of the meso's on our side including the Euro. I'll take that any day. Hopefully its just a fluke run of the GFS Ya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18 GFS is more amped up at 500mb but the surface low is further east of 12z? Makes no sense. Its better then 12z up here..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS relaxes QPF for western sections a bit...does make sense as the run starts out more amped, but ends up further east somehow.......can anyone sort this out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 At hr30, vortmax is in exactly the same location. Half wavelength is a little longer, but some really good digging behind the vort. Trend today has been to increasingly back the UL flow on the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpickett79 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 18 GFS is more amped up at 500mb but the surface low is further east of 12z? Makes no sense. yes 500 trending stronger makes me smile. my guess would be the LP will go further west at 0z. .....would like to say split the euro/nam but just because that sounds good doesn't mean it won't be nam verbatim. more ridging out ahead of ULL.....meso models MSLP placement FTW On this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS relaxes QPF for western sections a bit...does make sense as the run starts out more amped, but ends up further east somehow.......can anyone sort this out? Yes. 18Z should be a guidance for trends and we have opposite signals. However 15Z SREFs didn't change much. Wait till 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I mentioned that. I would not think east. Wonder if the ensembles will be a bit NW then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 CMC at 18Z got my attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 GFS relaxes QPF for western sections a bit...does make sense as the run starts out more amped, but ends up further east somehow.......can anyone sort this out? The track of the low is not further east. QPF is lower on the west side because the low is more progressive, and we get less wrap around moisture Wednesday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Yeah I mentioned that. I would not think east. below Its better then 12z up here..... Actually I would "buy" it if this turned out to be correct. It's getting pointless though because models are not locking onto (at least the US/CAN) a solution in terms of the transfer of energy east. EDIT: It's maybe a 2-3 hour delay with the max vorticity but it's enough to play with the final outcome. I'm too lazy to do a graphic up right now and I think I'm out of storage but it's a sublte shift with the vorticity...it trails by a few hours this time so everything gets further east in the jump before it happens. Like I said, no sense really analyzing it we know where the sticking point will be and it's going to change 3 or 4 more times between now and 18z run tomorrow....IMO A pseduo screw zone appeared on the op this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 This run is almost a carbon copy of yesterday's 18z, QPF wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 The track of the low is not further east. QPF is lower on the west side because the low is more progressive, and we get less wrap around moisture Wednesday afternoon H5 trended stronger, yet the low is more progressive.....riiiight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 LOL, you'll do fine I think. The NAM might be the western outlier, but it may be on to something. We have a pretty dynamic system here. So perhaps we see something maybe just west of the euro track? It's possible. 00z tonight should probably nail down the uncertainty. I know.....I was just chuckling at the comparison. I'm going to ignore this run. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 given where the NAM tracked, i think youd like the GFS to be offshore a bit for boston, a compromise is most likely and the RGEM concurs with that idea. you certainly dont want everything shifting NW suddenly, need those eastern solution to temper them. GFS defintely ticked north though a bit, SN- for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 trended stronger, yet the low is more progressive.....riiiight. I am almost positive the ensemble mean will be a hair NW, slower, and juicier than the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nutmegfriar Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 Give me some heavy snow. Good chance of coming close to a foot. I'm happy. My sentiments exactly. A foot of snow is real hard to get in my neck of the woods. A foot will be a fantastic storm. Anything over and it becomes an instant classic. Somebody give me a "Game On"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 H5 trended stronger, yet the low is more progressive.....riiiight. It's actually it being stronger that's a smidge of the problem. Holds the vorticity longer, by the time it gets further north it's also further east as the entire thing begins to jump. Carbon copy of what happened at the very end the other day IMO but like I said pointless to talk about it, just one of those things to look at tonight at 0z. No changes. 6-12 everywhere west of HYA, all the way through all 3 of our SNE states, 8-16 loli between you weathafella and ktan etc etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 FIRST CALL IMBY: 8-14" SECOND CALL IMBY: 9-15" Final Call tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted January 10, 2011 Share Posted January 10, 2011 When the lowest forecast Ive seen for my area is 8-12+, I feel pretty damn good. Heavy, Heavy Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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