October 2026 general discussion

[VivaManchVegas]

11 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

As usual, the foliage around here varies with random species of trees. I thought the maples this year looked great, better than I can remember for a while. The oaks are turning, but the Oaks always suck.
I don’t know what species there are that turn this vibrant, yellow, maybe Hickory? But those have been bright this year.

Beech and obviously birch do yellow pretty well.  I agree, oak sucks.  The one in my front year is usually shedding until the following spring.  

[tavwtby]

1 hour ago, Cyclone-68 said:

I was in Phoenix about 30 years ago to visit a friend and we had a wild thunderstorm at night. Absolutely loved it. But yea phoenix itself does little for me 

the worst part was the color of everything is tan or Terra Cotta...bridges and overpass, match the landscape...was there for a month once, so I decided to drive to the Grand canyon and didn't realize the temp difference from PHX to there was like 60 degrees+ and freezing there, beautiful to see but honestly not worth the drive and money, packed with people too.

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, tavwtby said:

colors are poppin, it's always usually the third week of October for peak here...now comes the clean up...

Wow…everybody saying the same thing in New England about what a great foliage year.  Nice picture. 

[MJO812]

Great video
https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

[dendrite]

45 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Great video
https://youtu.be/4gP_R1OGeQ8?is=EA6MCfhV6sw9i-6k

Holy AI slop

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow…everybody saying the same thing in New England about what a great foliage year.  Nice picture. 

Well, almost everybody. 

[dailylurker]

12 hours ago, VivaManchVegas said:

Beech and obviously birch do yellow pretty well.  I agree, oak sucks.  The one in my front year is usually shedding until the following spring.  

White oaks are super underrated. I know there's not a lot of them in New England. We have lots here in Maryland. The thing about the oaks and hickory is that they turn late. I call it second peak. White oaks get auburn and purple. The reds oaks get bronze, and the hickory trees get gold. I live how the backdrop is gray from bare softwood trees during second peak. Oaks are the king of the forest. 

[weatherwiz]

Just your usual 5 AM supercells in Arizona 

[WinterWolf]

16 hours ago, Layman said:

Beauty of a day here.  Wife and I got almost the whole woodpile stacked but it got warm out there.  No complaints!

Wow 74.1 there yesterday….impressive and very nice. We weren’t even close to that.  About 68 here for the high.  

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

White oaks are super underrated. I know there's not a lot of them in New England. We have lots here in Maryland. The thing about the oaks and hickory is that they turn late. I call it second peak. White oaks get auburn and purple. The reds oaks get bronze, and the hickory trees get gold. I live how the backdrop is gray from bare softwood trees during second peak. Oaks are the king of the forest. 

There’s not a lot of hickory up here. Most of the large beech, chestnuts, butternut, and ash are gone. A lot of the yellows are aspen and birch which turn with the maples. There’s some ironwood and basswood around too, but they don’t grow like weeds like the others.

[kdxken]

44° with a decent breeze. Beginning to look and feel like November. Only real green left in the woods is Christmas ferns and winterberry. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Coastal front went through was 52 with strong NE wind. Now 49.7 with lighter N wind. Not that it’s exciting, but sort of an interesting mesoscale feature. 

[WxWatcher007]

 

[CoastalWx]

Man euro AI just wiped its ass with the euro op this weekend. Euro op had this cold shot coming in while euro AI laughed at it. Robots won. 

[CoastalWx]

But since I’m a man that’s honest, euro AI failed with the rain over us too back a few days ago. 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man euro AI just wiped its ass with the euro op this weekend. Euro op had this cold shot coming in while euro AI laughed at it. Robots won. 

Screaming PAC jet. Nino here 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

But since I’m a man that’s honest, euro AI failed with the rain over us too back a few days ago. 

But the takeaway, are the bots getting it right more often? Or no? 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Screaming PAC jet. Nino here 

It won’t be your standard super Nino though…lots more in play…there will be surprises. 

[Typhoon Tip]

.. there's historic data that suggests warm ENSO autumns frame cyclonic tendency in that region along and off the middle Atlantic.  This year really hitting that with panache. 

There really wasn't much of an input in terms of arriving S/W mechanics into that region leading into that thing.  There was only weak sauce arrival prior to the one at the end of September, either ... that made major media outlets millions on pimped out headlines...  

My hypothesis is that it is the CAG climo repositioning up and off the eastern seaboard - 'CAG' referring to the Central American Gyre...  It's a general region of cyclonic tendencies that formulates in late summers and throughout autumns, situated as the naming suggests... around the western Caribbean/adjacent.  Anyway, this is a source of 'home grown' TCs in the October climatology for west Atlantic Basin activity.  Fronts or frontal echoes decaying through the Gulf can also formulate 'book end' spins but ... overlapping general vorticity potential in the area is an overall culture jelly.  The CAG is there because of overall large scale Coriolis balancing underneath autumn high pressure settling through the TX.

My hunch is that the large hemispheric circulation mode/manifold, indirectly related to the warm ENSO, favors this more off the EC than down there in typology.  We have a high pressure seemingly eternally lodged and incapable of settling S of us - see current sfc analysis' - which has been there for days.  When it breaks down... no worries.  Another dying cool boundary wafts silently trough, and reinvigorates the high pressure all over again... and this is causing a standard weakness over/off the M/A just like the CAG machinery.   interesting...

 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But the takeaway, are the bots getting it right more often? Or no? 

I feel like the robots are winning this. Another test is that big typhoon out in the west pac. Seems like bots are winning, but bots sort of moved towards the physical models with that.

[weatherwiz]

Gotta say...the bots have been quite impressive with pattern recognition and just an overall better idea of the general idea of the larger-scale storm details (development, track). Certainly enough I think to give a big boost in confidence for medium-range forecasting. Not entirely sure about the inside 48-hours or storm specific details but they've been a big boost in the medium-range for sure.

[Layman]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Wow 74.1 there yesterday….impressive and very nice. We weren’t even close to that.  About 68 here for the high.  

My station isn't in a dendrite-advised-or-approved location so the direct sun likely skews the temp a bit, but it was a fabulous day nonetheless!

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

44° with a decent breeze. Beginning to look and feel like November. Only real green left in the woods is Christmas ferns and winterberry. 

 

 

Stunning autumn weather for outdoor work.  I'm sure someone will chime in with drought talk again by next week.    

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 

Stunning autumn weather for outdoor work.  I'm sure someone will chime in with drought talk again by next week.    

Yep, and now back to our regularly scheduled best October ever. 

 

 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yep, and now back to our regularly scheduled best October ever. 

 

 

Weather and step down has been superb…picture perfect autumn so far.  Last year was good also. 

[weatherwiz]

Two trees we have in the front yard had some amazing vibrant colors...mostly yellows. Both the trees though have pretty much dropped all their leaves. One I think has fully dropped and the other like 90% dropped. I don't really know tree species but its interesting because these are legit the only two trees in the neighborhood which have not only fully changed but dropped leaves. 

[dryslot]

19 hours ago, tamarack said:

The red oak sapling outside the window has a nice but not vibrant burgundy color but the 24"/90ft red oak 50 yards away is going toward brown.  The only bright red oaks I see in this area are the pin oak street trees in Farmington - moderately common in the mid-Atlantic but not native to Maine.  Jeff has a couple of them in his yard; haven't heard how they've colored this fall.

Other than the oaks and some dark yellow understory beech, we're in stick season.  Many of those beech leaves will turn tan and hang on until bud break in May.

22/25/27 lows the most recent 3 mornings.

Tom, That first pin has a bit more color then the last several years, The one to the left is still mostly green, Genearlly they end up pretty dull reddish/brown and go to brown and hang on to most of the leaves until spring.

[Cyclone-68]

4 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

Just your usual 5 AM supercells in Arizona 

Those…..were…….AWESOME

it was incredible. Earth shaking thunder and frequent lightning strikes either here or very close by. Rain was so heavy at times I couldn’t see past our patio door. I took fantastic four minute video of it and when I learn how to post it I will. 
 

Edit: tornado watch issued until 6pm pst here

[Torch Tiger]

Was this wind forecast? Worse than anything this month

[weatherwiz]

26 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Was this wind forecast? Worse than anything this month

yes