October 2026 general discussion

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I would be all for Winters that are relatively torch, but leave room for a big dog or two. Best of both worlds. I don't like it when Christmas torches so it would be nice for those couple of weeks to be seasonably cold. 

I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun. 

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun. 

That sounds appealing, if the alternative is 43°-50° and bleh

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

I would be all for Winters that are relatively torch, but leave room for a big dog or two. Best of both worlds. I don't like it when Christmas torches so it would be nice for those couple of weeks to be seasonably cold. 

I’m all for anomalies now. I’ve seen pretty much everything mother nature has for winter. I could give two effs about 2-4” events unless there was 2’ of snow otg. Give me something that leaves me in awe. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m all for anomalies now. I’ve seen pretty much everything mother nature has for winter. I could give two effs about 2-4” events unless there was 2’ of snow otg. Give me something that leaves me in awe. 

You could give 2 Eff’s or you couldn’t? 

[Ginx snewx]

19 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Way too cold here 

 

19 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Another one for the fakers 

 

19 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s at 6z too. Sunday morning is light winds.

 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Pace yourself.

Letting a joke about a mid October freeze get to you will have you getting multiple stents before the solstice. 

Good advice. I’m calm now.  We pace. 

[Brian5671]

21 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun. 

I remember the air conditioning having to be turned on at church that year at xmas mass

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Good advice. I’m calm now.  We pace. 

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum.  The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record.  Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum.  The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record.  Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly. 

Absolutely.  We know it’s part kidding, and part reverse psychology too.   We’ll have our chances, that’s for sure. 

[Brian5671]

Rain has ended here-let's see if we can get any sun later to destabilize.

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Rain has ended here-let's see if we can get any sun later to destabilize.

Not sure we really get much, if any sun today. Perhaps some local breaks but I don't think it will be anything meaningful in terms of destabilization. The destabilization of the atmosphere today is largely going to be due to the advection of increased moisture in the lower-levels and at the surface. The SPC noted weak mid-level lapse rates as a hindrance of instability because of some observed soundings, but not so sure I totally agree with that. Mid-level lapse rates may actually steepen some as the day progresses and that would help provide a bit of a boost. 

Better heating and cloud breaks will be just off to our southwest...though you in SW CT could get onto the northeast edge of cloud breaks, so perhaps a bit of an instability gradient will become established.  

Regardless we should see a line of heavy downpours with some localized embedded thunder/lighting and a quick burst of strong wind gusts. 

[dryslot]

45 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun. 

I hear you can do this regularly in florida year round.

[tamarack]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I like snow on Xmas, but *unpopular opinion* one of my favorite Xmas mornings was 2015 when I watched my niece and nephews open gifts and then I sat out on the porch and had my coffee in the warm sun. 

We're not fans of brown ground at Christmas, especially when the grandkids are looking to go sledding.  In 28 Christmases here we've had 5 with no snow on the ground, also 8 with 10"+ pack.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Not sure we really get much, if any sun today. Perhaps some local breaks but I don't think it will be anything meaningful in terms of destabilization. The destabilization of the atmosphere today is largely going to be due to the advection of increased moisture in the lower-levels and at the surface. The SPC noted weak mid-level lapse rates as a hindrance of instability because of some observed soundings, but not so sure I totally agree with that. Mid-level lapse rates may actually steepen some as the day progresses and that would help provide a bit of a boost. 

Better heating and cloud breaks will be just off to our southwest...though you in SW CT could get onto the northeast edge of cloud breaks, so perhaps a bit of an instability gradient will become established.  

Regardless we should see a line of heavy downpours with some localized embedded thunder/lighting and a quick burst of strong wind gusts. 

Ryan's station calling for 60 mph gusts????

[Great Snow 1717]

33 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum.  The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record.  Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly. 

I dont understand why some weather hobbyists and people who are employed in the meteorology field want it to be sunny and warm/hot/humid all of the time...how dull and boring is that?? Lol

[CoastalWx]

48 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You could give 2 Eff’s or you couldn’t? 

I can, can’t, could, and couldn’t give 2 effs.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ryan's station calling for 60 mph gusts????

That can't be ruled out, though probably rather localized. These setups are always extremely trickly...you have to respect the dynamics and you don't need a ton of CAPE but you need enough to combat the shear, otherwise the updrafts just topple over and it prevents vertical growth (big reason why these end up as low-topped events). One big discriminator in these events producing damaging wind gusts on a larger scale versus rather isolated is steep low-level lapse rates which we'll lack today. 

 

[CoastalWx]

38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum.  The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record.  Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly. 

Why put me in with Kev and Brett? I actually anticipated a decent winter last year. 
 

I just love going against the ACATT narrative and breaking the hearts of weenies. 

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

What is the best is like last year we can laugh at the DIT Scooter Brets of the forum.  The Eyeores of the forum. Oh me oh my . Warministas calling for a complete torch record snowless winter are on record.  Let the chips fall where they may. Love when Mother Nature says oh you think you know what is coming and whacks us relentlessly. 

I agree to a point. Record strong niño forcing is a concern, but there’s a relatively SSS there. It’s hard to see a path to a very cold winter, but snow is a wildcard. 

[CoastalWx]

Go for a warm winter and you win more often than not. That’s just the new Greta regime now. Deal. 
 

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Go for a warm winter and you win more often than not. That’s just the new Greta regime now. Deal. 
 

 

Greta is an idiot…you see what she’s doing now. She’s a goof…you deal. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I agree to a point. Record strong niño forcing is a concern, but there’s a relatively SSS there. It’s hard to see a path to a very cold winter, but snow is a wildcard. 

Throw in the state of the PDO into the mix too. I haven't followed too closely the progression of the PDO since spring/summer but it seems to me like the -PDO has re-established itself to some degree...can't really strong Nino's with this degree of PDO regime. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Greta is an idiot…you see what she’s doing now. She’s a goof…you deal. 

I’m just sitting  back smiling. 

[CoastalWx]

Snow is definitely the wild card as it is for any winter. But we will be mild. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow is definitely the wild card as it is for any winter. But we will be mild. 

 We’ll have our shots.  And we will have our cold shots as well.  

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Rain has ended here-let's see if we can get any sun later to destabilize.

You have a much better shot than we do east of the river; let’s see how quick you clear and then see If we can clear out.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Snow is definitely the wild card as it is for any winter. But we will be mild. 

Not exactly going out on a limb here. Every winter is mild and AN now, I’m sure wolfie will have the fangs out and say Feb 15 was very cold, but you get the idea. It’s a couple months BN buried in a sea of warmth.

As we’ve seen though, all it takes is one mega winter event and you’re close to normal snow.

I think in balance, this winter will suck, but you obviously can’t rule out a rogue storm or two that brings people close to average 

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That sounds appealing, if the alternative is 43°-50° and bleh

That is the most likely scenario as warming continues in this region. Notice it's a lot of the over the top warming with tons of onshore flow underneath.  

[WinterWolf]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why put me in with Kev and Brett? I actually anticipated a decent winter last year. 
 

I just love going against the ACATT narrative and breaking the hearts of weenies. 

Well, last October and November, and December too…you were in a bad place, and you were as negative as could be(granted…you had a string of misfortune, so we all can understand the feeling).    So that’s why he lumped you in.  I think Vortex95 would agree. 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Not exactly going out on a limb here. Every winter is mild and AN now, I’m sure wolfie will have the fangs out and say Feb 15 was very cold, but you get the idea. It’s a couple months BN buried in a sea of warmth.

As we’ve seen though, all it takes is one mega winter event and you’re close to normal snow.

I think in balance, this winter will suck, but you obviously can’t rule out a rogue storm or two that brings people close to average 

Last winter was plenty cold…how quick we forget.