October 2026 general discussion

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

I hear you can do this regularly in florida year round.

F Florida

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well, last October and November, and December too…you were in a bad place, and you were as negative as could be(granted…you had a string of misfortune, so we all can understand the feeling).    So that’s why he lumped you in.  I think Vortex95 would agree. 

He’s still learning from me.

[ineedsnow]

ICON i know but looking interesting at hr 168

[ineedsnow]

Hr 180  has that piece of energy diving in like the Euro had the other night..  heading NNW at the end of the run 

[Prismshine Productions]

Hr 180  has that piece of energy diving in like the Euro had the other night..  heading NNW at the end of the run 

Keep going it will be a big problem

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[CoastalWx]

Don’t do it 

[Prismshine Productions]

Don’t do it 

I'm not, we all seen the song and dance

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[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I'm not, we all seen the song and dance

Sent from my SM-S176V using Tapatalk
 

Oh you’re doing it. Doing it well. 

[dryslot]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

F Florida

I can see you there in 20 yrs or so with the way your going now.

[dryslot]

Round 2 for Northern Maine.

[dryslot]

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I can see you there in 20 yrs or so with the way your going now.

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Nice banana high. Sign me up for one of those this winter with low pressure developing in the deep South 

[Modfan2]

Seems like a pretty unorganized line in NYS, and I don’t see us here EOR clearing any; nothing more than gusty/showery front passage?

[vortex95]

On 10/14/2026 at 5:10 PM, GaWx said:

 
 There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

-1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:



-1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12:


-1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf

-1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS:


-1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf

-1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf

1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain):


1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf

2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html



 So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

Then there's the MECS S+ part, at least for the Mid-Atlantic.  Feb 1983 and Jan 2016.  So the 4 very strong El Ninos since 1950, its 50-50 for that.  And for epic storms in general, the Jan 1998 "super" ZR storm NNE and srn Quebec!

Also, for a more localized bonus S+ events (the one @CoastalWx could not BELIEVE occurred, esp. since he got stiffed in GHG/Brockton), was the Dec 23, 1997 BOS Herald front page "THEY BLEW IT!" w/ mug shorts of the local BOS OCMs.  At most 4-8" fcst for SNE w/ a chance of mix, and it ended up 12-24" of super wet glop.  The one when Ayer MA got SNOINCR 8 and it was then realized how important the DGZ temps/saturate was (watershed weenie fcst moment for @CoastalWx)  That explained the MONSTA flakes and how a kind MEH sfc low could do such "KRAZEE" snowfall rates!

So really from the above and what @GaWxnoted, "KEWL TYMES" ahead for the E Coast!

 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That’s a stout HP building in next week to the north.

Forecast the High…we know the rest. 

[WinterWolf]

27 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Round 2 for Northern Maine.

Northern Maine may have a big year this year…lots of moisture could make things very nice. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Then there's the MECS S+ part, at least for the Mid-Atlantic.  Feb 1983 and Jan 2016.
So the 4 very strong El Ninos since 1950, its 50-50 for that.  And for epic storms in general, the Jan 1998 "super" ZR storm NNE and srn Quebec!

Also, for a more localized bonus S+ events (the one @CoastalWx could not BELIEVE occurred, esp. since he got stiffed in GHG), was the Dec 23, 1997 BOS Herald front page "THEY BLEW IT!" w/ mugs shorts of the local BOS OCMs.  At most 4-8" fcst for SNE w/ a chance of mix, and it ended up 12-24" of super wet glop.  The one when Ayer MA got SNOINCR 8 and it was then realized how important the DGZ temps/saturate was (watershed weenie fcst moment for @CoastalWx)  That explained the MONSTA flakes and how a kind MEH sfc low could do such "KRAZEE" snowfall rates!

So really from the above and what @GaWxnoted, "KEWL TYMES" ahead for the E Coast!

 

Lots of negative Nellie’s…you know the crew. 

[CoastalWx]

30 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather. 

Can we annex the area between Marco and Clearwater?

[dryslot]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Not happening. I’d rather live up here and complain about the weather. 

We know, You already have started.

[dryslot]

9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Northern Maine may have a big year this year…lots of moisture could make things very nice. 

Trip scheduled up the county for 2/1-2/5.

[WxWatcher007]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

I hear you can do this regularly in florida year round.

This. Some of my family was asking if I wanted to go south for Christmas when I usually host up here. I politely declined and told my wife separately HELL no.

I’ve had plenty of snowless winters in the south and the CT river valley and now that we have a place in SLK you think I’m going to give this up for a 70° Christmas? Absolutely not.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

This. Some of my family was asking if I wanted to go south for Christmas when I usually host up here. I politely declined and told my wife separately HELL no.

I’ve had plenty of snowless winters in the south and the CT river valley and now that we have a place in SLK you think I’m going to give this up for a 70° Christmas? Absolutely not.

Ha ha, You don't make that move to go to warmer weather, That is a great area for winter weather, And i'm contemplating moving further north when i retire.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

We know, You already have started.

I never stopped.