October 2026 general discussion

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Models backing off cold this weekend. Lets keep that going through winter.

[Torch Tiger]

wow poof...gone

[Prismshine Productions]

Keep in mind folks it is MID OCTOBER

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[Damage In Tolland]

Those west moving typhoons .. gets the ACATT crew all the time . We warned em’

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Those west moving typhoons .. gets the ACATT crew all the time . We warned em’

who cares about that as long as its not hot and humid I'm good 

[kdxken]

I'll take Sunny please.

 

[Torch Tiger]

30 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Keep in mind folks it is MID OCTOBER

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concerns

[Baroclinic Zone]

What a day. Had a downpour this afternoon at the office.

[WxWatcher007]

52 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Useless model.

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

@ineedsnowand @CoastalWx immediately rushed to see what *exactly* happened in SNE in 2000-01 winter!

Great winter here, especially the pack.  Still 47" deep on April 1.  (Not foolin' - had 19" on 3/30-31.)

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

When we get the ultimate 'cane here, this will be the most popular video by far!  @CoastalWx be like, "how can this happen?!"

 

Venturi

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Useless model.

Euro backed off too. 

[Ginx snewx]

Its coming 

https://www.facebook.com/share/r/1Jv5zciTYS/

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Uh oh. October snow. Winter canceled?  
 

A little skeptical, but it’s still an area climatologically favored. Euro legacy has it too now. Ensembles don’t really bring it up here though.

 
 There’s a strong correlation between very strong El Niños and having one significant to historic U.S. E coast storm in Oct as ALL 9 of the other very strong El Niño Octobers had one:

-1877: Hatteras had 1002 mb on 10/27 along with significant rainfall and strong NE winds caused by gradient between a sub 1000 mb low offshore and a 1022 mb high over Quebec. Norfolk got 2.71” of rain. The low was TS #7 then to the S moving OTS:



-1888: TS #7 went up the coast 10/11-12:


-1957: a strong nor’easter (995 mb) went up the coast 10/5-6 giving Hatteras 4.62” of rain:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1957/19571006.pdf

-1965: TS # 9 formed 10/16 NW Bahamas and hit NE FL 10/19 producing 8.3” on rain at CHS:


-1972: very strong nor’easter went up coast NC-NE 10/5-8 with strong winds and heavy rains (>4” NYC, nearly 4” Hatteras):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1972/19721002-19721008.pdf

-1982: strong winds/heavy rain (3.64” of rain Hatteras) from nor’easter 10/23-26 due to strong gradient between 1004 mb low Hatteras and 1030 mb high NE US. I experienced this in DC and still clearly recall the unusual combo of continuous rain, wind, and cold:

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821018-19821024.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1982/19821025-19821031.pdf

1991: “Perfect Storm” 10/30-11/1 H #8 (Boston 2.69” of rain):


1997: nor’easter 10/18-20 (Hatteras 1.4” of rain):

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971013-19971019.pdf

https://library.oarcloud.noaa.gov/docs.lib/htdocs/rescue/dwm/1997/19971020-19971026.pdf

2015: strong front pushed by 1045 mb SE Canadian high gets hung up along E coast with ~stationary upper low SE US and MH Joaquin ~stationary Bahamas interacting in a way few have ever seen resulting in >17”/historic flooding CHS Oct 1-4:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/dwm_stnplot_20151002.html



 So, all 9 very strong El Niño had one impactful to historic US E coast storm in Oct! Are the 12Z UKMET, Euro, Euro-AIFS, and Icon sniffing out something real for 2026’s turn? Based on the history noted above, I wouldn’t at this point discount at least the possibility of something notable happening near the E coast next week.

[Ginx snewx]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro backed off too. 

Definitely warmer next week but cold Sat with wind chills in the 20s. Probably wont break 50 all Sat with temps going down with sun.

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, vortex95 said:

@ineedsnowand @CoastalWx immediately rushed to see what *exactly* happened in SNE in 2000-01 winter!

It was a good winter.  

[HoarfrostHubb]

Wind this afternoon was pretty sweet

[CoastalWx]

47 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Definitely warmer next week but cold Sat with wind chills in the 20s. Probably wont break 50 all Sat with temps going down with sun.

It will be in lower 50s outside elevations. 

[Damage In Tolland]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It will be in lower 50s outside elevations. 

Yeah the cold and freezes literally vanished . Started noticing it Monday . Just a slight BN day now 

[Great Snow 1717]

Some people here need to consider moving to the deep  south...

[SJonesWX]

2 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Keep in mind folks it is MID OCTOBER

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thanks captain obvious 

[WinterWolf]

17 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

thanks captain obvious 

Well to be fair…we have nonsense talk for mid October already.  So I kind of get where he’s coming from.  It’s starting earlier and earlier.