East of the Parkway Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think. Seaside Parks reverse OEM reverse call is going to panic a lot of people. Probably rightfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago The 12k NAM takes the center to basically Cape May by 06z Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago I'm at the Manasquan Inlet prepping for a 5pm live and it's not too bad here yet. The Stevens tide model is showing major here for Saturday morning, a bit higher than the NOAA guide which keeps it just at moderate/minor levels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 15 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Both nams say what rain? At least thru late saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NsWx516 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think. Very much agreed. Factoring in ground saturation, heavy rains, and a full moon is no bueno for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 25 minutes ago, Rjay said: I think the coastal flooding is going to be worse than many think. They are all working on the cf products but they just told me and one of the TV mets that Hey guys were are still working on it. There are some changes to water levels and its complex coastline that we are dealing with. No changes to coastal flood benchmarks. Expecting a new CFW out within the hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago What's interesting here on the east end, the tide gauge in orient had a rather low, low tide level at 3:53. Lower then the last 2 low tides. Winds are less today though so dunno exactly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago First call on the track 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Rjay said: First call on the track Hopefully we get a repeat in February 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Most models seem to have the system max out sometime between 00z and 06z Sunday. So here's the 12z Euro ensembles at 06z Sunday. First image standard physics based EPS. Second image AI EPS. Personally still thinking this occurs somewhere just south of Montauk (~50-100mi). Be interesting to see what guidance does tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Man this would've made an incredible winter storm! Hopefully it sets up for the winter. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago This is from stony brooke storm surge research group. Not much surge for Orient it would appear. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, mob1 said: RGEM also shifted SW. If this trend is real (too soon to tell given how globals look), it'll really eat into the precipitation totals for northern areas. This storm might be warm core. Getting interesting. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This storm might be warm core. Getting interesting. Warm seclusion/weird hybrid 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Well this looks bad? I'm horrible at fully understanding surge forecasts... wish it could be overlays with minor moderate and major flood thresholds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Ai, says that forecast us showing me at moderate to possibly major flooding.... that's a big is legit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Gefs has me over 6 and gfs has me at about 6. NAEFS-Based Guidance, which is multi model ensemble showing over 6... jeez didn't expect to see those kinda predictions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol way way south.....hmmm NAM too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Lol “Look kids! Big Ben, Parliament!” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Would seem the storms been trending stronger as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Did anyone see the hrdps? Looks quite impressive at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 36 minutes ago, Rjay said: First call on the track NAM 3km model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago rainfall wise-the RGEM has trended south some-heaviest now south of LI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rmine1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Bust calls incoming. Typical me, I’ll let others start them, and I’ll join later on. Doh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 18z gfs ai still doing is loop over Montauk. Not doing what the rgem or nam did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Good thing the rain comes in waves instead of a continuous downpour. Will help with flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wthrmn654 Posted 57 minutes ago Share Posted 57 minutes ago 18z gfs looks very similar to the ai cones too too about the shore of Long Island then decides to head to times square 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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