October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[Cobalt]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

a lot those warm water temps did for the zero hurricane season in the Atlantic to date.  Wasn’t it supposed to be just the opposite?  

Two things can be true at the same time. Take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies:

Gulf of Mexico is far and away the warmest compared to average to date at the moment. Central Atlantic top 3, subtropic Atlantic top 5. That you can't deny without trying to discredit the satellite data. At the same time though, obviously shear is an overwhelming issue in the Atlantic basin, given that the El Nino is the most anomalous feature on the planet. But importantly, take a look at the ocean temperature anomalies nearer to this storm system. Surely that is promoting a stronger storm, and if you go back into the database, such anomalously warm waters only started showing up there more recently.

[DirtySnowDen]

Only reason k remember 3ff of snow is because, the precursor storm was plowing MLway above model expectations.

[DirtySnowDen]

I’m still hungry. Still waiting for my dinner of “words”, cuz I do not want this for me/family and friends, but sadly the trend is not a friend I have..

[DirtySnowDen]

If the high pressure over SE Canada does a 50/50, we are  in quite the pickle for us “flat-landers”

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, DirtySnowDen said:

I’m still hungry. Still waiting for my dinner of “words”, cuz I do not want this for me/family and friends, but sadly the trend is not a friend I have..

As he licks his chops he theoretically hopes it misses?

[DirtySnowDen]

I really don’t at this point in my life. But like writing, it’s seems it does have writing on some sort of wall.

22 minutes ago, weathafella said:

As he licks his chops he theoretically hopes  When I was a young lad I wanted wild weather.

[WxWatcher007]

Rain forecasts from the GFS and Euro at 00z. Ugly stuff from the Euro. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro and euro AI more north before the west turn. Seems to be a subtle trend at 00z. That’s more of an impact for SNE. Hope it continues.

[tiger_deF]

Lots of mesoscale models(NAM, HRDPS, RGEM, etc) have been ramping up the short term intensity of the storm +24h tonight 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and euro AI more north before the west turn. Seems to be a subtle trend at 00z. That’s more of an impact for SNE. Hope it continues.

Seems most storms get pulled north and east the last 24 to 48 hours hopefully this works in our favor.. 12z will be interesting either way

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and euro AI more north before the west turn. Seems to be a subtle trend at 00z. That’s more of an impact for SNE. Hope it continues.

Happening as we get closer to gametime too. Might be converging toward that middle ground I talked about last night. 

Another 50-100mi north wouldn't be outrageous. This is still a tough setup to precisely predict. 

[DirtySnowDen]

3 hours ago, weathafella said:

As he licks his chops he theoretically hopes it misses?

I care about my chops only to the nave.

[DirtySnowDen]

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and euro AI more north before the west turn. Seems to be a subtle trend at 00z. That’s more of an impact for SNE. Hope it continues.

Icon also

[CoastalWx]

Nams seemed like they wanted to at 6z, but they still seem a bit lost. 

[DirtySnowDen]

This is a Nowcast storm, but generally, the trend hasn’t been friendly overnight as game time approaches.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, DirtySnowDen said:

This is a Nowcast storm, but generally, the trend hasn’t been friendly overnight as game time approaches.

??

[CT Rain]

What’s the deal with OKX not issuing high wind warnings?

[Ginx snewx]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro and euro AI more north before the west turn. Seems to be a subtle trend at 00z. That’s more of an impact for SNE. Hope it continues.

AI gives you 8/9 inches of rain.You sure you can handle 8 inches.

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, CT Rain said:

What’s the deal with OKX not issuing high wind warnings?

Wait I keep watching u guys at30 yesterday mehing this. Ikon is not good

[CT Rain]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Wait I keep watching u guys at30 yesterday mehing this. Ikon is not good

I had 50-60 at the coast.

[DirtySnowDen]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

??

The dynamics are dynamic, one will not know with certainty till the first quarter of the game.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

AI gives you 8/9 inches of rain.You sure you can handle 8 inches.

 

 

And then some 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

What’s the deal with OKX not issuing high wind warnings?

No clue. Li is a given and likely srn CT.

[CoastalWx]

NAMs are nasty here. Definitely increased winds from 00z.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Harv had been worried about the west jog happening before it got up here.  But that was based on yesterday afternoon/evenings runs. 

[DirtySnowDen]

Also, the ticks north pregame, mean the north trend isn’t done. [my forecasting experience is old enough to legally vote]

[DirtySnowDen]

I remember the NGM, like Pepperidge Farms.

[ok, Grandpa]

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, DirtySnowDen said:

The dynamics are dynamic, one will not know with certainty till the first quarter of the game.

Edibles?

[CoastalWx]

Models definitely got a lot wetter overnight with some of these sort of north jogs.