October Comes Early: Late September Multi-Hazard Hybrid Storm

[CoastalWx]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I mentioned yesterday it's often overamped....I mean, it probably will have had the better idea when all is said and done, but it will also probably have capitulated to an extent relative to the more ominous runs.

I was thinking more strength wise. Like 1000mb seems a bit weak for this setup. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Loving the gloom. Let's see if we can get out of this thing without any rain.

Doubtful....it's just unlikely to be as memorable as many starving weather enthusiasts would like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I was thinking more strength wise. Like 1000mb seems a bit weak for this setup. 

Wow, that is probably too weak, but I'm balls-deep in ENSO right now, so only keeping peripheral tabs.

[qg_omega]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I was thinking more strength wise. Like 1000mb seems a bit weak for this setup. 

985 was always a bit suspect

[CT Rain]

Why am I not surprised this is turning out to be a snooze. 

 

Just enough to ruin another weekend too!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wonder if our resident -not-so-secret @CoastalWx admirer, Boris has put his clothing back on... @CoastalWx, take a peek outside your bedroom window and check...

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

0z seemed pretty meh overall 

We knew 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wonder if our resident -not-so-secret @CoastalWx admirer, Boris has put his clothing back on... @CoastalWx, take a peek outside your bedroom window and check...

Thankfully all clear.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Thankfully all clear.

Just be leery that it may not be the wind if the bushes are reverberating.

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Just be leery that it may not be the wind if the bushes are reverberating.

 

[MJO812]

Euro ticking east again

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro ticking east again

NYC in the clear?

[CoastalWx]

Euro ai holds steady 

[weatherwiz]

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). 

One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance) 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NYC in the clear?

Perhaps a few smashed pumpkins as they prep the razor blades for the trick or treat candy....

[amarshall]

What a difference between debbie downers here and the hype machine social media death and destruction with pretty colored graphics. Lots of reds and whites on maps.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Definitely a much less impressive LLJ on the Euro (except towards the Cape). 

One thing that seems noticeable too is differences with the handling of the high to the north (on all guidance) 

You mean impressive wind will be confined to the cape?? I had a great inside tip from my pal, climo....should have listened; dude knows his stuff-

[CoastalWx]

I do like seeing the euro AI kind of hold steady. It’ll be interesting to see what the 12z stuff does today. But when you get an anomalous 500 set up and multiple lows with convection all over the place, models are gonna have a tough time resolving it. I don’t know how good AI is for something like this.

[CoastalWx]

6z euro op doesn’t seem east at hr 66.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

NYC in the clear?

Hopefully

Im participating in the Tunnels to Towers 5k event in regards to September 11 2001.  Walking from Brooklyn through the tunnel to the new Freedom Tower.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Hopefully

Im participating in the Tunnels to Towers 5k event in regards to September 11 2001.  Walking from Brooklyn through the tunnel to the new Freedom Tower.

Good for you man. Great cause.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I do like seeing the euro AI kind of hold steady. It’ll be interesting to see what the 12z stuff does today. But when you get an anomalous 500 set up and multiple lows with convection all over the place, models are gonna have a tough time resolving it. I don’t know how good AI is for something like this.

This could be another great test for AI guidance.

However, didn't we have some similar scenarios last winter (maybe not truly anomalous as this setup is given time of year) but where we saw AI guidance holding steady and then collapsed towards traditional guidance inside of like 48-60 hr?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Hopefully

Im participating in the Tunnels to Towers 5k event in regards to September 11 2001.  Walking from Brooklyn through the tunnel to the new Freedom Tower.

Awesome.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Good for you man. Great cause.

This will be my 3rd year doing it. I did the Freedom Tower stair climb in June. Had to climb over 2k steps and 104 floors. Took me over an hour but I did it . 

[CT Valley Snowman]

I was never buying the GFS way OTS or the Euro hooking into NJ.  And i was never really "excited" for this event.  I've had enough rain and would have preferred to get a few things done outdoors this weekend. Lots of fairs, festivals, and fall events going on this weekend as well which sucks for those people trying to make a living.  30 mph winds isn't enough for me to sacrifice a weekend outdoors.   I can understand those along the coast being a bit more enthusiastic if the stronger/closer solutions verify.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

This will be my 3rd year doing it. I did the Freedom Tower stair climb in June. Had to climb over 2k steps and 104 floors. Took me over an hour but I did it . 

Imagine doing that with 100lbs of equipment under the stressful conditions in which they completed that task...

[MJO812]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Imagine doing that with 100lbs of equipment under the stressful conditions in which they completed that task...

Heroes

[CoastalWx]

6z euro is nasty here. Looks like it was drunk at 00z.

[CoastalWx]

Euro ai ensemble mean is stalled south of BID for awhile. 

[Brewbeer]

24 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

I was never buying the GFS way OTS or the Euro hooking into NJ.  And i was never really "excited" for this event.  I've had enough rain and would have preferred to get a few things done outdoors this weekend. Lots of fairs, festivals, and fall events going on this weekend as well which sucks for those people trying to make a living.  30 mph winds isn't enough for me to sacrifice a weekend outdoors.   I can understand those along the coast being a bit more enthusiastic if the stronger/closer solutions verify.  

this, chilly weekend washout is not welcomed; was hoping to finish the body work and painting on my old cars before it gets too cold for the paint to cure properly