Septorcher 2026 Discussion - Endless Summer

[VivaManchVegas]

Summer is officially over.  Traded the flip flops for the moccasin slippers.   56 and dropping. 

[vortex95]

14 hours ago, BrianW said:

Hopefully you get swarmed and covered in honeydew..

 

Spotted lanternflies produce honeydew as a sticky, sugary waste fluid when they feed on plant sap, coating nearby trees and objects.

It makes outdoor furniture, decks, and cars sticky, dirty, and hard to clean. Bees also collect it, changing the taste and look of local honey.

I had never heard of lantern files until now.  Are they endemic to New England?  Worse than stink bugs?

[bristolri_wx]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I had never heard of lantern files until now.  Are they endemic to New England?  Worse than stink bugs?

https://dem.ri.gov/agriculture/caps-program-pests-spotted-lanternfly

[vortex95]

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino?  The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer.

See here:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I looked at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer.  Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case.

So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino?   Such as <gasp!> the upcoming winter for the CONUS?  Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted?

I often wondered if we could get a wicked -NAO during very strong El Nino, what would come out of that?  @CoastalWx likely would come up w/ this scenario.  "Well, we saw what happened in the epic -NAO in 2009-10.  Hmm, since the Mid-Atlantic got crushed, and much of New England missed out, maybe that means the STJ active and warmth pushed N, and the cold pressing more S, that would make SNE in "snow weenie heaven!!!!"  I could also add in @ineedsnow here as to thinking that! 

Also, since I am not an uber winter weenie, is there any actual difference between the AO and NAO?  You look at NOAA here, and I don't see anything.  The graph looks a lot like NAO phases.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation
 

[vortex95]

We now have the lowest Atlantic ACE season-to-date -- 4.4 units as of 9/6.  This is the lowest in the satellite era, and prior, since 1941.

Given TC records are more incomplete as you go further back, this record today is even more outstanding, as historical seasonal ACE, prior to the satellite era especially, is too low.

[CT Valley Snowman]

47 here. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

49-50F this AM. Brisk baby

[Damage In Tolland]

And near 80 this afternoon. Warm baby 

[Modfan2]

47F here in E CT as well

[HoarfrostHubb]

My low was 48.4 but a PWS Davis near me recorded 43.7

Should be beautiful later today 

Finally some CoC

[moneypitmike]

23 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

We should get into the 40s tonight 

Got into the 40's all the way  to the shore of Buzzard's Bay.  Impressive.

[Spanks45]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

My low was 48.4 but a PWS Davis near me recorded 43.7

Should be beautiful later today 

Finally some CoC

Yeah, beautiful out there, 48 here but it won't kill the mosquitoes....they are horrendous right now

[HoarfrostHubb]

Just now, Spanks45 said:

Yeah, beautiful out there, 48 here but it won't kill the mosquitoes....they are horrendous right now

Yeah. They were noticeable during our fire out session last night.  Not as bad as other times but I can’t wait for them to die

[Damage In Tolland]

Very warm week this week with a mild down for the weekend 

[Damage In Tolland]

Of course aerating and overseeding lawn and he decides to show up for the month 

[Brewbeer]

looks like a gloriously dewless forecast setting up as far as the eye can see, except for overnight Wednesday into Thursday, after which drier air and more comfortable air returns   

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And near 80 this afternoon. Warm baby 

COC 

[Ginx snewx]

58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Of course aerating and overseeding lawn and he decides to show up for the month 

You bitched about rain yesterday lol. Always something to bitch about 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Very warm week this week with a mild down for the weekend 

Its over

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Ginx snewx said:

You bitched about rain yesterday lol. Always something to bitch about 

Well when we are promised a weekend of coc k and it rains much of the time and that forecaster doesn’t own up and apologize.. well it isn’t great 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Its over

Yes , the rains of the past 2 days are.

[Brian5671]

Nice day on tap!   We missed the showers yesterday thankfully

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Well when we are promised a weekend of coc k and it rains much of the time and that forecaster doesn’t own up and apologize.. well it isn’t great 

It rained a few times but it wasn't bad at all. 

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, vortex95 said:

Want to see an unexpected large-scale difference from other years going into a very strong El Nino?  The area above 80N barely got above freezing this summer.

See here:
https://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

No other summer since records began in 1958 has been this cold, and I looked at other very strong El Ninos, and all got to a mean of 1 C at least for the summer.  Since this is an avg over large area, 1 C is a significant in this case.

So this begs the question, how could this impact things as to what we typically expect in a very strong El Nino?   Such as <gasp!> the upcoming winter for the CONUS?  Is the AO, and by extension, the NAO, impacted?

I often wondered if we could get a wicked -NAO during very strong El Nino, what would come out of that?  @CoastalWx likely would come up w/ this scenario.  "Well, we saw what happened in the epic -NAO in 2009-10.  Hmm, since the Mid-Atlantic got crushed, and much of New England missed out, maybe that means the STJ active and warmth pushed N, and the cold pressing more S, that would make SNE in "snow weenie heaven!!!!"  I could also add in @ineedsnow here as to thinking that! 

Also, since I am not an uber winter weenie, is there any actual difference between the AO and NAO?  You look at NOAA here, and I don't see anything.  The graph looks a lot like NAO phases.
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-variability-arctic-oscillation
 

2009-10 was the winter that BWI had 7" more snow than CAR.   100-year event?  Even longer?