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Saturday, July 18, 2026 Thunderstorm/Severe Weather Potential


weatherwiz
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Unimpressed with everything about this day, had zero expectations. It was always going to be a slopfest, there was only ever one run of one model that looked really interesting for my area, and obviously that ain't enough to get exited about, unless maybe if you're Wiz (just kidding). I did raise an eyebrow when the SPC expanded probs for spinners here but never really bought into that because experience has taught me they seldom do great with New England setups and I just didn't see anything that looked unusually good for tors and supes this far north and east, despite the decent shear. Could still get surprised, I suppose, but I consider that possibility increasingly unlikely. Maybe the next one, sigh...

 

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7 minutes ago, ct_yankee said:

Unimpressed with everything about this day, had zero expectations. It was always going to be a slopfest, there was only ever one run of one model that looked really interesting for my area, and obviously that ain't enough to get exited about, unless maybe if you're Wiz (just kidding). I did raise an eyebrow when the SPC expanded probs for spinners here but never really bought into that because experience has taught me they seldom do great with New England setups and I just didn't see anything that looked unusually good for tors and supes this far north and east, despite the decent shear. Could still get surprised, I suppose, but I consider that possibility increasingly unlikely. Maybe the next one, sigh...

 

Expectations should always be low in our setups really. At least for me, part of the fun in all this is the "unknown". 99.999999% of the time (or some number that's essentially 100% without being 100%) severe weather here is not going to be widespread or even concentrated, its just going to be some reports scattered about and localized. But back to the fun...its the tracking and monitoring to see even if one storm produces...and if that one storm does produce, there is someone out there who was directly impacted. 

These setups are just so intriguing in that regard because the kinematics support the potential and generally instability is usually just enough to warrant some concern, but ultimately low enough to where maybe only a few storms will ever become mature enough to utilize the environment. 

 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

yes MCD was issued which includes western CT mentioning uncertainty in whether downstream watch will be issued

 FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. 
 

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

 

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8 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

 FYI That line east of KBGM has a tor warning. You had interest in that line earlier. 
 

Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Binghamton NY 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 NYC025-182300- /O.CON.KBGM.TO.W.0011.000000T0000Z-260718T2300Z/ Delaware NY- 637 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2026 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR SOUTHWESTERN DELAWARE COUNTY... At 636 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located near Harvard, or near Walton, moving east at 40 mph.

 

yup multiple warnings. 

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26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All heading for where the warm front passed. Far SW CT to NYC. Rest of region is screwed 

Wasn’t expecting severe here but we have been getting downpours here on and off for the last two hours as these little clusters of heavy showers move east.

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7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

sweet, my bitching worked. 

.38"+ and heavy downpours

sometimes you just gotta pull one out of the tblizz playbook to combat stein

Weenied the cape to some totals. A lot more to come 

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