Hoisting the Sultan Signal: Heavy Rain Event July 5-7

[weatherwiz]

12z HRRR yesterday did a nice job with the idea today and then NAM followed suite. Been steady all day but has been heaviest over the past hour. Breeze picking up too

[dendrite]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You had 5-6” in June 

Potted plants dry out fast and I prefer to use collected rain water. Have you learned anything from Growing Wisdom?

[Ginx snewx]

3 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

 

 

All of you were forecasting regional flooding and a few had 4-6” of rain for the area . None of those things happened. So sure there was more rain than I thought, but nothing like what you called for at various points the last  few days . Let’s look in the mirror and own up.

Link?we all said south coast to pike most vulnerable and it was south coast with 4 to 6. 

[CoastalWx]

At least it’s windy with the rain flying off the leaves. Nothing worse when it’s pouring and the GD canopy keeps it from soaking underneath. 

[kdxken]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At least it’s windy with the rain flying off the leaves. Nothing worse when it’s pouring and the GD canopy keeps it from soaking underneath. 

I can help with that.

[kdxken]

Jesus when is it going to stop raining? I thought it was supposed to be done by now.

[Chrisrotary12]

Soakage. Good for the soul

[SouthCoastMA]

Kingston getting croaked per usual

[SouthCoastMA]

1.45" but more to my north, south, east, and west

[HoarfrostHubb]

1.58” at a local Davis.   The wind is fun

[CT Valley Snowman]

Looks like today really saved the event from a bust back home   Closing in on 2.5 at a local PWS.  

[kdxken]

13 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

1.58” at a local Davis.   The wind is fun

You caught up in a hurry. Heaviest of the day right now in southborough.

[powderfreak]

Another sunny day and 81F.

Hasn’t rained in days.  Feels like a different planet from SNE.

[kdxken]

27 minutes ago, kdxken said:

You caught up in a hurry. Heaviest of the day right now in southborough.

Over 2 " for the day.

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Another sunny day and 81F.

Hasn’t rained in days.  Feels like a different planet from SNE.

Nice break for you finally

[wx_observer]

I don't care what the thermometer says.  61 degrees in July feels soooo much colder than 61 degrees in May.  I'm shivering my timbers over here...brrrr!

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, wx_observer said:

I don't care what the thermometer says.  61 degrees in July feels soooo much colder than 61 degrees in May.  I'm shivering my timbers over here...brrrr!

It's a bit uncanny too because of the Meteorology going on over this "cold" air. 

It's 582 heights with 570 dm hydrostats... 

We've been 96 F on those parametrics before.    

There's something peculiar about this area of the planet Earth. It's always, always, always, at least excuse imagined, the coldest it can possibly be relative to anything allowed.  

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

We've been 96 F on those parametrics before.    

There's something peculiar about this area of the planet Earth. It's always, always, always, at least excuse imagined, the coldest it can possibly be relative to anything allowed.  

But only in summer, not in winter.

[tamarack]

51 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Another sunny day and 81F.

Hasn’t rained in days.  Feels like a different planet from SNE.

Mostly cloudy 70s here, not a drop since June 28.  Water table is fine (5.53" in June) but the upper 6" is pretty dry.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

But only in summer, not in winter.

mm not really.   Snark aside ... I posted the monthly means every month of this last winter.  We were always the coldest or proximal to the coldest region during the 3rd warmest winter on record.  

Oh, but look out!  It'll be the warmest nights ever

 

[bristolri_wx]

If this storm teaches anyone anything it’s you shouldn’t say a forecast has busted until the storm is actually done.

Models were all over the place on QPF, and yes they also had some outrageous amounts that may have not ended up occurring, but it was always showing a 2.5 day event, and different phases or chapters. Areas of rain have been pulsing, regenerating, and dying out for the entire duration of this storm.

It also shows how much room for improvement there needs to be for modeling to nail down with better accuracy for these types of weather events. But the common sense forecast didn’t waiver much.

There will be some larger numbers reported once things wind down, and the widespread 1-2” with 3-5” isolated spots will not be too far off what was being forecasted in the mid-range.

[CoastalWx]

Pillaging rains and winds. 
 

One thing that worked out, were the dynamics. Enough moisture transport and even deformation to help wring out precip from processes helping with efficient droplet production.  I’ve seen that fail so I definitely underestimated that!

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, kdxken said:

Over 2 " for the day.

Make that two and a half. Another half in just the last hour.

[Snowedin]

Almost looks like your classic mid winter deform band setting up in the usual areas while the system slowly pulls away. But yeah, we’re catching up big time this afternoon in eastern mass. Finally getting the goodies!

[Damage In Tolland]

Look at that R++ headed at Taunton . Kid gonna end up 3-4” inches and 3-4 wives all at once .

[CoastalWx]

Man big fat L from me this morning. 00z euro wasn’t far off.

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just a nasty day all around.

[wxsniss]

This is impressive 

I thought guidance had most rainfall overnight into Tuesday morning… but by far best dynamics and rates of events now in EMA

Gonna be widespread 2-3”+ east with this late surge

Does have the feel of one of the storms we had last winter where we’re fully expecting a shank and then get destroyed late

[kdxken]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man big fat L from me this morning. 00z euro wasn’t far off.

I don't think many had this for Tuesday.

[kdxken]

Just now, wxsniss said:

This is impressive 

I thought guidance had most rainfall overnight into Tuesday morning… but by far best dynamics and rates of events now in EMA

Gonna be widespread 2-3”+ east with this late surge

Does have the feel of one of the storms we had last winter where we’re fully expecting a shank and then get destroyed late

Jinx. Just posted the same thing.