Ju-ply 2026 Obs and Disco - Kicking it off with heat, humidity, and ... severe?

[CoastalWx]

MVY has had more convection than most of SNE. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Weeks and weeks of Steined 

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Parched

https://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/attleboro-drought-deemed-critical-bans-imposed/article_7e0dd875-fc6d-4266-ac29-aae90f0a30e1.html

 

 

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

OMG that is the most bullshit statement. JFC. It was the perfect rain.

 

2 hours ago, CT Rain said:

This drought stuff in out of control.

The last time the city entered critical drought restrictions was in July 2024, when the Manchester Reservoir lost 7 feet of water over seven weeks amid drought conditions. Critical restrictions remained in effect for months afterward.

Initially, officials believed the drought caused the severe water loss. It was later determined the loss stemmed from a valve connecting Orr’s Pond and Manchester Reservoir — Attleboro’s two main drinking water sources — that had been left open longer and wider than it should have been. The valve was open for nearly two months.

[Torch Tiger]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Weeks and weeks of Steined 

You have to be concerned. Drygust and Steintember to get through

[kdxken]

Headed out to the Tetons for some hiking. I think I'm just going to sit my ass in the Snake River. Mother fuc...

 

 

[powderfreak]

26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Headed out to the Tetons for some hiking. I think I'm just going to sit my ass in the Snake River. Mother fuc...

 

 

Sounds like you need to go above 7,500ft…. Get as high as possible.

[Chrisrotary12]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

MVY has had more convection than most of SNE. 

I feel like we’ve said this a bunch lately

[WxWatcher007]

44 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Headed out to the Tetons for some hiking. I think I'm just going to sit my ass in the Snake River. Mother fuc...

 

 

 

16 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like you need to go above 7,500ft…. Get as high as possible.

Looking at that heatwave I happened to look at the normals out there this time of year. Salt Lake City averages 93° and Denver 90° on July 10. That’s as warm as Miami (90°)!

[kdxken]

17 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Sounds like you need to go above 7,500ft…. Get as high as possible.

Certainly solve the problem. I'd have a coronary before I got too hot

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

OMG that is the most bullshit statement. JFC. It was the perfect rain.

I mean, ball kind of don’t lie. Ponds and streams are easily the lowest I’ve seen them in my area in the 7 years I’ve been where I’m at.

[BrianW]

12 hours ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Parched

https://www.thesunchronicle.com/news/local_news/attleboro-drought-deemed-critical-bans-imposed/article_7e0dd875-fc6d-4266-ac29-aae90f0a30e1.html

 

Noticed last week around Narragansett RI they had water ban signs up all over town. They also had all the beach showers and water turned off. I think Narragansett uses groundwater wells and they are exceptionally low.

The Providence Journal just published an article yesterday but its paywalled. Here is the headline.

To understand why Gov. Dan McKee, in June, declared a drought watch for only the second time in Rhode Island in 24 years, you need only look at the precipitation numbers over the last 12 months.

In nearly every month since June 2025, the state has fallen short of the historical average, leading to a cumulative deficit of 13.4 inches for the year and a total that’s at only 80% of where it should be.

[dendrite]

June is a convenient cutoff considering May 2025 was 8.05”. But I get it, I want more rain too.

PVD Historical Averages and monthly totals

May 25 3.38” 8.05” +4.67”
Jun 25 3.25” 1.15” -2.10”
Jul 25 3.18” 5.08” +1.90”
Aug 25 3.64” 2.76” -0.88”
Sep 25 3.60” 6.24” +2.64”
Oct 25 3.47” 4.80” +1.33”
Nov 25 3.88” 2.56” -1.32”
Dec 25 4.09 2.37” -1.72”
Jan 26 3.82” 3.08” -0.74”
Feb 26 3.32” 2.84” -0.48”
Mar 26 4.16” 5.57” +1.41”
Apr 26 3.86” 1.89” -1.97”
May 26 3.38” 2.01” -1.37”
Jun 26 3.25” 2.38” -0.87”

Plus did they underreport liquid equiv in the big snowstorms this year? Spring has been dry, but where is the longterm 13” deficit?

[Lava Rock]

Lawns are going to be toast by next wknd.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, BrianW said:

Noticed last week around Narragansett RI they had water ban signs up all over town. They also had all the beach showers and water turned off. I think Narragansett uses groundwater wells and they are exceptionally low.

The Providence Journal just published an article yesterday but its paywalled. Here is the headline.

To understand why Gov. Dan McKee, in June, declared a drought watch for only the second time in Rhode Island in 24 years, you need only look at the precipitation numbers over the last 12 months.

In nearly every month since June 2025, the state has fallen short of the historical average, leading to a cumulative deficit of 13.4 inches for the year and a total that’s at only 80% of where it should be.

That could tell us something about the reality of the urgency/risk to actual people.   

First, there's the "facade" of crisis, then ... we have to pay to find out how it will harm  us?  

Riiiight - 

What ...?  so let's venture a scenario.  Suppose the Canary Islands over there SSE of the Azores go on ahead a bifurcate in a geological event that sldes the western slope of the trillion trillion trillion ton volcanic shield's mass into the Atlantic depths ... sending enough wave energy to surge up a 1,000 foot high tsunamis into the eastern seaboard of America.  Media-sphere holds back, unless we spend 2.99 on a paywall site to find out what's going on.  Another 4 bucks for the premium service of finding out how one can save their ass or die.  That's right ... 4 bucks or you die! 

It's tacky at best.  I mean that's obviously a fictional/exaggerated depiction there but it takes elaboration of circumstance to brightly identify the point.  If it is really harmful, the ethical thing to do is tone down the rhetoric and up the expediency of useful/vital information -     

[CoastalWx]

11 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I mean, ball kind of don’t lie. Ponds and streams are easily the lowest I’ve seen them in my area in the 7 years I’ve been where I’m at.

The drought 3 years ago blows away anything I’ve seen. Ponds and what not look decent here. A little low but nothing atypical. 

[kdxken]

Fine looking summer week upcoming. Of course the nuts will want rain instead.

 

[dendrite]

Would love a week of rain. 

[dendrite]

Let’s keep fixing problems by treating the symptoms and not the cause

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2533348-seeding-clouds-with-seawater-could-prevent-a-super-el-nino/

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Would love a week of rain. 

Maybe by Oct 

[tamarack]

16 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Let’s get two tropical systems to pour on us like 1954 so we can get moved from moderate drought to abnormally dry. 

Carol and Edna each dumped a lot of rain, but they were about a month apart.  The next year Connie/Diane combined for 12-22" in 8-9 days over much of SNE.  Of course, the 1954 hurricanes had far more wind.

[CoastalWx]

Mid to upper 90s again next week. What a summer. 

[jbenedet]

13 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Looking at that heatwave I happened to look at the normals out there this time of year. Salt Lake City averages 93° and Denver 90° on July 10. That’s as warm as Miami (90°)!

Apples and oranges.

Dews…

We know this. 
 

Miami is +7 to that temp in terms of real feel, heat index, while Denver is -5.

So it’s really like 85 Denver, 97 Miami.
 

Yea that checks out….

 

[CoastalWx]

@CT Rain pointed this out but the 6z gfs for BTV Tuesday aftn is super impressive. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

@CT Rain pointed this out but the 6z gfs for BTV Tuesday aftn is super impressive. 

Wagons north for this potential 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Wagons north for this potential 

Stein here and derecho there. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Stein here and derecho there. 

No trees left in the Greens Mountain's? 

[Cyclone-68]

So first N NE and then the Mid Atlantic a few days later with great SVR potential. Just great 

[CoastalWx]

29 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

So first N NE and then the Mid Atlantic a few days later with great SVR potential. Just great 

Can’t spell Stein without SNE.

[Typhoon Tip]

question is ... how much of this survives an over-the-top delivery before the flow collapses into and around that autumn pattern later next week... 

 

Never seen sub 545 dm SPV over N Quebec, doing so in mid/late July nearing the perennial hottest time of the climate year, but the GFS is just getting more and more absurd ... not backing off, as we get closer.  This 120 hours... uuuusally when the amplitude starts to normalize.  We'll see tomorrow but jesus christ with this beast!

 

Euro's 10 or so dm shallower but still depicting the highly anomalous SPV, too.  It's not just that ... the west-NW Euro heat wave and associated ridging is paradoxical to that. The teleconnector correlations are in anti.     kind of fascinating...   It appears that what's going on is a very powerful -NAO, perhaps record breaking for summer ... **but** because it is situated so far E some of it's mass is lapsed outside the NAO domain space, so when calculating the EOFs ... we're missing something. Only getting these -1.5 type SD numerology from the agencies that calculate it. Meanwhile, this trough you see over eastern Canada is actually part of the same large scale wave structure - in and of itself highly unusual for summer months.   These features are just exotically amplified overall.   what the f chuck!

part of my wild imagination is that the models are just expressing some sort of desperate attempt at budgeting/explaining CC on some level. Because... if it were as hot in Europe, to then shallow that trough over eastern Canada, they'd have to go ahead and admit we're at the 1.5C threshold now.  ha.   

[powderfreak]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Would love a week of rain. 

Feels like that wouldn’t even satisfy folks, as soon as the GFS shows a dry 7 days it’d be like a week of rain never happened.