July 2026

[MANDA]

27 minutes ago, TWCCraig said:

Still a little bit of low level smoke, but skies are much clearer overall. It's great seeing the sun again!

HRRR brings some smoke back in later tonight with the sea breeze. Looks pretty clear by Sunday 

Yeah.  Main smoke plume is shifting southward today.  Actually fairly clear up here in NWNJ right now with only some haze to the south and clear blue skies to the NW.

[Brian5671]

Some models have very little rain tomorrow.   Doesn't look like an all day washout

[Stormlover74]

13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Some models have very little rain tomorrow.   Doesn't look like an all day washout

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

[forkyfork]

looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change

[lee59]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2026	2.70	2.60	3.60	2.48	3.05	3.39	1.83	M	M	M	M	M	19.65
2025	0.61	2.60	5.52	3.25	6.58	2.46	4.03	2.21	2.76	4.08	2.09	3.38	39.57
2024	5.28	2.05	9.06	3.47	4.11	1.71	4.20	7.02	1.58	0.01	3.35	4.53	46.37

I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago.

[IrishRob17]

Satellite shows the smoke has pushed south but it’s deceiving, still lots of lingering ground level smoke easily seen when outside. 

[rclab]

15 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change

Forky please keep SPF 100 handy in case of unexpected clearing. As always …..

 

[SnowGoose69]

36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

[winterwx21]

49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening.  

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess

It'll be interesting to see if HRRR and NAM3km are correct about our area getting hit hard during the morning. I would think afternoon/evening is more likely, but we shall see. 

[SnowGoose69]

6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. 

Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen.  Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability