MJO812 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Air quality is still high at 177 but bearable compared to yesterday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Air quality is still high at 177 but bearable compared to yesterday We should hopefully be clearing out today. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 76 / 61 partyl cloudy with the worst of the smoke heading south. Mid 80s to 90 in the warmest locations. Saturday severe risk and rain / flood potential increasing. Clearing out for t=Sunday world cup game. Trough into the northeast 7/19 - 7/24 more rain/storm chances Tue-Wed keep heat south, enough sun / less rain could see temps spike wed-thu. Overall near / below normal the next week. 7/27 and beyond western heat coming east , see if the W. Atlantic ridge retro back west. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Records: Highs: EWR: 100 (2012) NYC: 100 (1953) LGA: 98 (2012) JFK: 97 (1969) Lows: EWR: 56 (1946) NYC: 57 (1892) LGA: 60 (1946) JFK: 61 (1989) Historical: 1902: Temperature range was 38° from 58° minimum to 97° maximum in Baltimore City, MD. 1934 - One of the worst heat waves in the history of the nation commenced. During the last two weeks of the month extreme heat claimed 679 lives in Michigan, including 300 in Detroit alone. (The Weather Channel) 1941 - A prolonged heat wave over Washington State finally came to an end. Lightning from untimely thunderstorms was responsible for 598 forest fires. (David Ludlum) 1942: A great flood developed over the Smethport area in Pennsylvania, resulting in an estimated 34.50 inches of rain in just one day, including 30.60 inches in only six hours, setting a world record. The official observing site, Smethport Highway Shed, reported only 13.08 inches for the entire month because the flood consumed the gauge after 6.68" of rain. The total results from the substitution of the officially estimated amount for the amount measured. 1943: Col. James Duckworth became the first person to fly an airplane into a hurricane. Duckworth took his AT-6 trainer right into the eye of a category 1 hurricane off the Texas coast. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1952 - Thunderstorms helped the temperatur at Key West, FL, to dip to 69 degrees, to equal their July record established on the first of July in 1923. (The Weather Channel) 1957 - On a warm and sunny day at Wilmington, DE, with a high of 86 degrees, a dust devil suddenly appeared. It tore most the roof off one house, and stripped shingles from a neighboring house. A TV aerial was toppled, and clothes were blown off clothes lines. (The Weather Channel) 1978: Severe thunderstorms ripped across southwest sections of South Dakota. One storm which dumped hail larger than golf balls and had winds which exceeded 80 mph was labeled as one of the most destructive to strike several western counties. Bennett County alone lost 20,000 acres and 600,000 bushels of unharvested winter wheat. The storms also did considerable property damage. Total price tag for the storms was near $28 million dollars. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1980: The maximum temperature ever recorded in Atlanta, GA was 105 °F on this date. The maximum temperature ever recorded in Macon, GA was 108 °F on this date. The high of 110 degrees at Newington, GA was just two degrees shy of the state record. (Extreme Weather pp. 22, 273, by Christopher C. Burt) 1981: Severe thunderstorm winds ripped a 10,000 square foot hole in a 90-foot high pavilion at Sea World in Orlando, FL. The storm panicked a crowd of 550 tourists. One death occurred due to injury and heart attack, and 15 people were injured. The canopy was made of fiberglass and Teflon, designed to withstand 120 mph winds. 1985: An F1 tornado touched down, 10 miles east of Raymond, SD destroying two cattle sheds and several buildings. Heavy rains, strong winds and hail up to 2.75 inches in diameter produced considerable damage to farm buildings between Raymond and Garden City. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches caused additional crop losses from erosion. A thunderstorm near Kennebec produced wind gusts to 80 mph and small hail was observed. Several car windows were broke from wind and small hail. A damage path from wind and hail continued to Clear Lake, to south of Gary and into Minnesota to the east of Canby. Winds gusted to 70 mph and hail ranged from one to almost two inches in diameter. Highway 77, south of Clear Lake was impassable due to hail on the ground. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1987 - Slow moving thunderstorms caused flooding on the Guadalupe River in Texas resulting in tragic loss of life. A bus and van leaving a summer youth camp stalled near the rapidly rising river, just west of the town of Comfort, and a powerful surge of water swept away 43 persons, mostly teenagers. Ten drowned in the floodwaters. Most of the others were rescued from tree tops by helicopter. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - A dozen cities in the eastern U.S., and six others in California, reported record high temperatures for the date. Downtown San Francisco, CA, with a high of 103 degrees, obliterated their previous record high of 82 degrees. Philadelphia, PA, reported a record five straight days of 100 degree heat, and Baltimore, MD, reported a record eight days of 100 degree weather for the year. Afternoon and evening thunderstorms produced severe weather along the Middle Atlantic Coast, and over southern New England. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from South Dakota to Lousiana, with 126 reports of large hail and damaging winds during the day and night. Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced hail four inches in diameter in Frontier County, and at North Platte, causing millions of dollars damage to crops in Frontier County. Thunderstorms in Oklahoma produced wind gusts to 90 mph at Peggs. Tahlequah OK was drenched with 5.25 inches of rain. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary) 1993: All-time monthly record rainfall established already at Concordia, KS as rainfall records continued to fall across the Midwest during the Great Mississippi Flood of 1993. Total rainfall so far was 13.26”; this broke the old record of 11.19”. On this date, two inches of rain fell in 12 minutes in parts of Montgomery County, Iowa. 12 inches fell in just three hours near Bamboo, WI. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1994: Atlanta, Georgia saw a record-tying, 14 straight days come to an end on this day. The entire month of July had 17.71 inches, the wettest month ever in the Georgia capital. 1995: A 15-year-old boy was injured by lightning while touching an outdoor light switch at a swim and tennis club just outside Charlottesville, VA . He had been playing tennis and was leaving the courts due to the storm when he was struck. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History) 1997: Tropical Storm Danny strengthened in the Gulf of Mexico off of the Louisiana Coast and moved slowly toward land. This marked only the third time in 126 years that four tropical storms had formed so early in the season (1886, 1959 were the other years). The storm would eventually stall over Mobile Bay, dumping incredible amounts of rain on the Alabama coast. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2000: Intense storms produced a vivid lightning display in the early a.m. over Kansas City, KS/MO. 2,000+ cloud-to-ground bolts hit Johnson County between 2-3 a.m.; the number of intracloud bolts may have exceeded 20,000 in the same time span. (Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2003: Denali National Park, Alaska: One inch of snow falls at Denali National Park Headquarters, the first occurrence of measurable snow ever recorded in July. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2005: Needles, CA reached a high temperature of 125°, recording their hottest temperature ever. Other daily records included: Palm Springs, CA: 121°, Borrego Springs, CA: 120°, Yuma, AZ: 117°, Las Vegas, NV: 116°, Phoenix, AZ: 116°, Kingman, AZ: 113°, Tucson, AZ: 111° and Winslow, AZ: 105°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Really a bummer. Ducks game is gonna be cancelled. Bought a bunch of tickets. Fireworks were supposed to be after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.70 2.60 3.60 2.48 3.05 3.39 1.83 M M M M M 19.65 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 2.21 2.76 4.08 2.09 3.38 39.57 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Still a little bit of low level smoke, but skies are much clearer overall. It's great seeing the sun again! HRRR brings some smoke back in later tonight with the sea breeze. Looks pretty clear by Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 27 minutes ago, TWCCraig said: Still a little bit of low level smoke, but skies are much clearer overall. It's great seeing the sun again! HRRR brings some smoke back in later tonight with the sea breeze. Looks pretty clear by Sunday Yeah. Main smoke plume is shifting southward today. Actually fairly clear up here in NWNJ right now with only some haze to the south and clear blue skies to the NW. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Some models have very little rain tomorrow. Doesn't look like an all day washout 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Some models have very little rain tomorrow. Doesn't look like an all day washout Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 hour ago, bluewave said: NYC needs to pick up 2.77” by the end of July to have their first average to above precipitation month since May 2025. https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=NYC&product=CLM&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2026 2.70 2.60 3.60 2.48 3.05 3.39 1.83 M M M M M 19.65 2025 0.61 2.60 5.52 3.25 6.58 2.46 4.03 2.21 2.76 4.08 2.09 3.38 39.57 2024 5.28 2.05 9.06 3.47 4.11 1.71 4.20 7.02 1.58 0.01 3.35 4.53 46.37 I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Satellite shows the smoke has pushed south but it’s deceiving, still lots of lingering ground level smoke easily seen when outside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 15 minutes ago, forkyfork said: looking forward to the soot rain tomorrow morning. i love climate change Forky please keep SPF 100 handy in case of unexpected clearing. As always ….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 36 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 49 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Double hits rarely occur but there is enough forcing tomorrow even with the 1st round early afternoon I like the chances of seeing a 2nd round later in the evening. I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Rarely is. Probably a line of storms but who knows when. Evening I guess It'll be interesting to see if HRRR and NAM3km are correct about our area getting hit hard during the morning. I would think afternoon/evening is more likely, but we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 6 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: I see HRRR and NAM3km actually have a morning round now too, hitting us very hard here around 10am. Then the afternoon round and another round later at night. Hard to believe we'll get hit by 3 rounds, but 2 rounds seems like a pretty good bet. We need more rain so I hope the models are right. Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen. Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 7 minutes ago, guinness77 said: I’m in Babylon right now but the skies seem much bluer today than yesterday and the sun is actually present and normal. I’m heading to Queens now but the smell and feel in my chest is completely gone (for now). Don’t know if it’ll be worse in Jamaica. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 3 hours ago, lee59 said: I suppose we were due for this. Over the past 50 or 60 years precipitation has increased quite a bit. That 46 inches in 2024 would have been above normal some 50 years ago. We began to dry out shortly after the super El Nino in 2023-2024 during the fall. The warmer climate requires more water than 50 years ago due to increased evaporation rates. One of the areas that needs more research are these expanding 500mb ridges that get stuck in place for weeks to months. So we get regions with record drought under the ridges which are bounded by record flooding like we are currently seeing in Texas. The more erratic precipitation patterns are a real challenge for the agricultural and landscaping fields. Since long range precipitation forecasts beyond a week or two aren’t the greatest. Trying to figure out where your local area will end up between the wet and dry extremes isn’t the easiest to navigate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve392 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Had blue skies at home today. No smell if smoke but still hazey. Driving down turnpike you can almost see the cutoff from heavy smoke to light haze by Middlesex County area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 18 hours ago, guinness77 said: I’m on west end of tracks 1 and 2 in Jamaica and the pics really aren’t doing it justice. Obvious smoke in the air, an overt campfire smell, you can feel it in your chest. Lots of people masking up. It’s feeling pretty post-apocalyptic here. Same location about 19 hours later. Much bluer in the sky, a little haze with little humidity so it probably is a little smoke but no ill feeling in my chest and there’s a very distinct smell of a bit of smoke. But, much much better than yesterday early evening. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 87 here much clearer as smoke south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 2 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Those mini rounds 14-16z on the HRRR/RRFS could be disruptive to the 18z one if they happen. Ideally you'd want that one to not happen so you don't have clouds in place or too much stability Strong shear, lapse rates and high dews could counteract the lack of sun here especially with the fronts being nearby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 Flood watch issued for most..city on west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 17 Author Share Posted July 17 Enhanced severe risk as well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 Big time boom or bust potential tomorrow. It all hinges on how fast can we clear out after the warm front lifts through 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 17 Share Posted July 17 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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