July 2026

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Ive missed all the heavy storms for 3 days

 

.18 tonight

.17 yesterday and .12 Friday

The batch coming in from eastern PA should give us a decent soaking overnight, even if we miss the heavy downpours. 

[SI Mailman]

that line on the jersey shore racing northeast to LI

Pretty much just got an inch from that line.

[weathermedic]

 Got 1.20 from that line 

[LCPhotowerx]

i figure this is as good of a time for my first post as any. Nother long time lurker. Was quite the show here in mid Staten Island for a bit there

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Port Jervis/Huguenot area looks like it’s getting crushed. That area had a wicked flood in 2006/2007 I think, when the Neversink went over its banks.

Hopefully the stationary cells start to lift. 

That area still looks to be getting pounded. Especially Huguenot to Otisville. Several hours now of 50dbz+. Could be some areas over 4" of rain already.

[NEG NAO]

[winterwx21]

Just had a pretty good downpour. 0.45" so far tonight. 

[Snowlover11]

Pretty unimpressive so far, heavy echos dried up on arrival and kinda just showery all night.

[IrishRob17]

4.76" since 7pm last night here near Campbell Hall.

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Should be fun in the morning heading home. There is a creek down my street and there’s no other way around it.

Zzzzzz maybe .25 overnight while the HRRRRR had over 3 inches for the same period

[Snowlover11]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Zzzzzz maybe .25 overnight while the HRRRRR had over 3 inches for the same period

Yeah definitely didn’t get the goodies, orange county and areas NW got a good drink.

[steve392]

45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

4.76" since 7pm last night here near Campbell Hall.

This system just kept hammering you guys up there! 

[winterwarlock]

And underwhelming half inch the past 2 days. Still under an inch past 4 days

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is that accurate. That's 10"+ in central NJ over the next 2 days

The location of the heaviest potential with HFEF max around the region usually shifts from run to run. But the signal is there mesoscale banding producing localized 5”+ amounts.

Sometimes the mean chart is closer the actual amounts and other times the max does better. We never really know for sure. So it’s good to post the mean and max together to show the range of possibilities. The WPC and NWS use that as one of the models for their QPF forecasts. We can see a few spots so far are over 3”.

But the nature of convection usually means that the models can’t really pinpoint the exact locations. The latest runs have shifted east a bit which is par for the course with convective rainfall forecasts.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST Massachusetts... ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Waves of low pressure ripple along a latitudinally wavering stationary front causing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. During this period the front will likely be sprawled from central Ohio to central New Jersey. Two distinct shortwaves moving along this front will help track dual waves of low pressure eastward, each of which will locally enhance ascent (one across western Pennsylvania, the second from New Jersey into southern New England). Broad areas of ascent, instability with PW values exceeding 2" will be aligned near this front to yield a significant risk for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The latest guidance mainly focuses the heaviest QPF over southern New England and portions of northern/coastal New jersey. Although the placement widely varies among the hires guidance there continues to be consensus for areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ as reflected by the REFS and HREF PMM. The neighborhood probabilities reach above 40% for coastal New England and Long Island for 3"/24 hr and 15% for 5"/24 hr. Rainfall rates at times reaching 2-3"/hr combined with aligned mean wind/Corfidi vectors which are parallel to the boundary will drive training/backbuilding to support these heavy rainfall amounts. A Moderate Risk cover far northeast New Jersey, Southeast New York and Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and portions of southeast Massachusetts.

[IrishRob17]

2 hours ago, steve392 said:

This system just kept hammering you guys up there! 

Up to 5.25” and still raining but the current rate is a much more manageable .26” per hour. 

[FPizz]

56 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

And underwhelming half inch the past 2 days. Still under an inch past 4 days

Yup, .93 the past 4 days

[IrishRob17]

33 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The location of the heaviest potential with HFEF max around the region usually shifts from run to run. But the signal is there mesoscale banding producing localized 5”+ amounts.

Sometimes the mean chart is closer the actual amounts and other times the max does better. We never really know for sure. So it’s good to post the mean and max together to show the range of possibilities. The WPC and NWS use that as one of the models for their QPF forecasts. We can see a few spots so far are over 3”.

But the nature of convection usually means that the models can’t really pinpoint the exact locations. The latest runs have shifted east a bit which is par for the course with convective rainfall forecasts.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST Massachusetts... ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Waves of low pressure ripple along a latitudinally wavering stationary front causing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. During this period the front will likely be sprawled from central Ohio to central New Jersey. Two distinct shortwaves moving along this front will help track dual waves of low pressure eastward, each of which will locally enhance ascent (one across western Pennsylvania, the second from New Jersey into southern New England). Broad areas of ascent, instability with PW values exceeding 2" will be aligned near this front to yield a significant risk for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The latest guidance mainly focuses the heaviest QPF over southern New England and portions of northern/coastal New jersey. Although the placement widely varies among the hires guidance there continues to be consensus for areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ as reflected by the REFS and HREF PMM. The neighborhood probabilities reach above 40% for coastal New England and Long Island for 3"/24 hr and 15% for 5"/24 hr. Rainfall rates at times reaching 2-3"/hr combined with aligned mean wind/Corfidi vectors which are parallel to the boundary will drive training/backbuilding to support these heavy rainfall amounts. A Moderate Risk cover far northeast New Jersey, Southeast New York and Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and portions of southeast Massachusetts.

The models did a decent job showing it was going to dump somewhere and as you stated the exact the locations are always going to move around in these types of setup’s. I got under that band but other places in Orange County received much less. Everyone in the region getting 3-5+” was never likely and most of us knew that but not everyone reads the actual discussions, they just look at the pretty graphics on their phone app.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Jones beach air show cancled, for what so far has amounted to nothing more then light showers on the south shore of Nassau.


.

[MANDA]

Still no power.

Rainfall total as of 7:00 a.m. a beneficial and manageable 1.36".  Thankfully the excessive totals did not pan out over a large area.  Isolated excessive amounts only.  @IrishRob17seems to have jack potted.  Threat of Flash Flooding much reduced for rest of today but still some locally heavier showers around.  Temperatures down but humidity is sky high.  Very soupy out there this morning.

[IrishRob17]

3 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Still no power.

Rainfall total as of 7:00 a.m. a beneficial and manageable 1.36".  Thankfully the excessive totals did not pan out over a large area.  Isolated excessive amounts only.  @IrishRob17seems to have jack potted.  Threat of Flash Flooding much reduced for rest of today but still some locally heavier showers around.  Temperatures down but humidity is sky high.  Very soupy out there this morning.

My son over near Milford PA is at 6”. Hopefully that power gets back on soon!

[jm1220]

About an inch here so far, maybe less. A couple heavy showers here otherwise just light/moderate.

[bluewave]

1 minute ago, IrishRob17 said:

The models did a decent job showing it was going to dump somewhere and as you stated the exact the locations are always going to move around in these types of setup’s. I got under that band but other places in Orange County received much less. Everyone in the region getting 3-5+” was never likely and most of us knew that but not everyone reads the actual discussions, they just look at the pretty graphics on their phone app.

Yeah, people have to remember that models can give us signals but the exact amounts and locations are going to vary. Especially when they are modeling convection where mesoscale boundaries and processes are at play. It’s better to think in ranges of possibilities so if you live in a flood prone area you can at least prepare. I can remember growing up when the models wouldn’t even give us any signal at times and some of the events came as a complete surprise. 

[Rjay]

0.47" so far.  Not expecting much more

[Intensewind002]

0.55" in Lindenhurst

[weathermedic]

2.6 overnight at my station

[WestBabylonWeather]

22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Jones beach air show cancled, for what so far has amounted to nothing more then light showers on the south shore of Nassau.


.

Did they get in the full show yesterday at least? 

[jm1220]

If this is all we’re getting, definitely not even a drought dent here. And we’re supposed to heat up again late this week. 

[weathermedic]

Upton still on the rain train as per their AM Discussion:

A stationary front will remain south of Long Island today.
Multiple rounds of heavy rain, along with embedded thunderstorms
are expected as a series of shortwaves ride along the boundary
through tonight.

Showers along with embedded thunderstorms are expected to
continue through much of the day today as better upper level
support/jet energy moves into the region. Conditions remain
favorable for torrential rainfall rates/flooding today due to a
humid air mass over the region. PWATs remain around 2 inches
areawide today, although PWATs of 2+ inches may periodically
advect into the southern portion of the area, which is higher
than daily max sounding climatology values. Some of the 00z
forecast models have indicated PWATs maxing out closer to 2.4
inches.

With an easterly flow, mainly parallel to the frontal boundary,
training of storms will be likely with potential for backbuilding.
00Z HREF probabilities for 3 inches of rain or more in 3 hours
highlights portions of the NE NJ, NYC and Long Island in a 30
percent contour for this evening into tonight, which is
typically a good indication of flash flooding potential for this
area.

As a result, WPC has placed NYC, Long Island and southern CT in
a moderate risk for excessive rainfall today.

In terms of rainfall amounts, storm total QPF through Tuesday will
likely range between 2 and 3 inches with locally higher amounts
of 4+ inches. Rainfall rates will likely be 1-2 inches per hour
with locally higher rates possible. The main area of
uncertainty with the forecast is where the highest rainfall
totals and resulting flooding will occur and will depend on the
exact placement of the frontal boundary.

Flooding impacts would be highest in urban and poor drainage
areas in addition to the most responsive rivers/creeks/streams.

[Brian5671]

1.03 here so far

[Intensewind002]

23 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Did they get in the full show yesterday at least? 

Yeah i was there, sun was actually out for a decent portion of it