July 2026

[winterwx21]

4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Ive missed all the heavy storms for 3 days

 

.18 tonight

.17 yesterday and .12 Friday

The batch coming in from eastern PA should give us a decent soaking overnight, even if we miss the heavy downpours. 

[SI Mailman]

that line on the jersey shore racing northeast to LI

Pretty much just got an inch from that line.

[weathermedic]

 Got 1.20 from that line 

[LCPhotowerx]

i figure this is as good of a time for my first post as any. Nother long time lurker. Was quite the show here in mid Staten Island for a bit there

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, ForestHillWx said:

Port Jervis/Huguenot area looks like it’s getting crushed. That area had a wicked flood in 2006/2007 I think, when the Neversink went over its banks.

Hopefully the stationary cells start to lift. 

That area still looks to be getting pounded. Especially Huguenot to Otisville. Several hours now of 50dbz+. Could be some areas over 4" of rain already.

[NEG NAO]

[winterwx21]

Just had a pretty good downpour. 0.45" so far tonight. 

[Snowlover11]

Pretty unimpressive so far, heavy echos dried up on arrival and kinda just showery all night.

[IrishRob17]

4.76" since 7pm last night here near Campbell Hall.

[qg_omega]

7 hours ago, Snowlover11 said:

Should be fun in the morning heading home. There is a creek down my street and there’s no other way around it.

Zzzzzz maybe .25 overnight while the HRRRRR had over 3 inches for the same period

[Snowlover11]

9 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Zzzzzz maybe .25 overnight while the HRRRRR had over 3 inches for the same period

Yeah definitely didn’t get the goodies, orange county and areas NW got a good drink.

[steve392]

45 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

4.76" since 7pm last night here near Campbell Hall.

This system just kept hammering you guys up there! 

[winterwarlock]

And underwhelming half inch the past 2 days. Still under an inch past 4 days

[bluewave]

22 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Is that accurate. That's 10"+ in central NJ over the next 2 days

The location of the heaviest potential with HFEF max around the region usually shifts from run to run. But the signal is there mesoscale banding producing localized 5”+ amounts.

Sometimes the mean chart is closer the actual amounts and other times the max does better. We never really know for sure. So it’s good to post the mean and max together to show the range of possibilities. The WPC and NWS use that as one of the models for their QPF forecasts. We can see a few spots so far are over 3”.

But the nature of convection usually means that the models can’t really pinpoint the exact locations. The latest runs have shifted east a bit which is par for the course with convective rainfall forecasts.

 

Excessive Rainfall Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 423 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026 Day 1 Valid 12Z Mon Jul 06 2026 - 12Z Tue Jul 07 2026 ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW JERSEY TO SOUTHEAST Massachusetts... ...Mid-Atlantic and Northeast... Waves of low pressure ripple along a latitudinally wavering stationary front causing multiple rounds of training thunderstorms. During this period the front will likely be sprawled from central Ohio to central New Jersey. Two distinct shortwaves moving along this front will help track dual waves of low pressure eastward, each of which will locally enhance ascent (one across western Pennsylvania, the second from New Jersey into southern New England). Broad areas of ascent, instability with PW values exceeding 2" will be aligned near this front to yield a significant risk for heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding. The latest guidance mainly focuses the heaviest QPF over southern New England and portions of northern/coastal New jersey. Although the placement widely varies among the hires guidance there continues to be consensus for areal averages of 3 to 6 inches with local maximums of 8+ as reflected by the REFS and HREF PMM. The neighborhood probabilities reach above 40% for coastal New England and Long Island for 3"/24 hr and 15% for 5"/24 hr. Rainfall rates at times reaching 2-3"/hr combined with aligned mean wind/Corfidi vectors which are parallel to the boundary will drive training/backbuilding to support these heavy rainfall amounts. A Moderate Risk cover far northeast New Jersey, Southeast New York and Long Island, southern Connecticut, southern Rhode Island and portions of southeast Massachusetts.