dailylurker Posted Wednesday at 10:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:33 AM It looks like a front will be stalling over our area late Friday afternoon and low pressure in the Midwest moves along the front and into the area. It looks like a slow mover. It could be a long duration, beneficial rain event. Let's talk about it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 10:36 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 10:36 AM WB 6Z EURO has heavy rain moving through on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 11:55 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:55 AM That needs to shift south by about a hundred miles 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM 7 minutes ago, stormy said: That needs to shift south by about a hundred miles LOL, I think everybody would be happy if it just EXPANDED 75-100 miles to the south. A good 2-3" soaker would do a lot of good for most of us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:03 PM We'll see. Yesterday afternoon looked great on paper with LWX highlighting Calvert and St. Mary's for heavy rain potential, and I got a quarter inch. My area has a departure of -8 inches for the year and would need rainfall of 150% to 200% of normal for four straight months to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted Wednesday at 12:19 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:19 PM Have an event Saturday morning at the National Zoo. Hoping this is delayed a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 12:20 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 12:20 PM WB 9Z NBM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted Wednesday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:53 PM I’ve seen that image before. I’ll expect the under. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDphotog Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:32 PM 3 hours ago, canderson said: Have an event Saturday morning at the National Zoo. Hoping this is delayed a day. I would like to see the airshow in Baltimore on Sunday and go to the National Zoo on Saturday. I vote for delaying it two days! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 04:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:06 PM WB 12Z model runs: note GFS has rain coming in Friday evening; RRFS and 12K NAM are nothing burgers (not shown); Canadian on board; EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted Wednesday at 04:35 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 04:35 PM 1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said: I’ve seen that image before. I’ll expect the under. Let's save it for the winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 05:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 05:15 PM 5 hours ago, stormy said: That needs to shift south by about a hundred miles and East Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 06:08 PM given recent tendencies, sounds like that means sprinkles Saturday and actual rain Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 08:40 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:40 PM 3 hours ago, frd said: and East I would hope that north/south/east and west all get a good soaking................... The extended NWS slows the front down because Sterling increased my POP on Sunday from 30% to 60%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted Wednesday at 08:45 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 08:45 PM 4 minutes ago, stormy said: I would hope that north/south/east and west all get a good soaking................... The extended NWS slows the front down because Sterling increased my POP on Sunday from 30% to 60%. WPC increased 7 day totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Wednesday at 09:43 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:43 PM Excerpt from latest Sterling NWS discussion. They should use this line for every event.... In short, it is a very complex forecast situation, so stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates as we get to look at more data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Wednesday at 09:50 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 09:50 PM 1 hour ago, frd said: WPC increased 7 day totals Unfortunately, I'm on the extreme south edge of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 01:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:37 AM WB 0Z NBM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 01:55 AM Share Posted Thursday at 01:55 AM 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: Excerpt from latest Sterling NWS discussion. They should use this line for every event.... In short, it is a very complex forecast situation, so stay tuned to the latest forecast for updates as we get to look at more data. We don't do complex well in these parts. Safer to take the under on this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted Thursday at 10:08 AM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:08 AM I probably should I waited to start this thread. Everything pretty much trended north where they don't need rain. Hopefully it keeps going north. Not trying to ruin the weekend with worthless sprinkles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 10:47 AM Share Posted Thursday at 10:47 AM WB 9Z NBM...here we go again... but don't worry the WB 6Z 12K NAM will save us! Actually, the WB 6Z RDPS is ok for northern areas as well. We are still in wait and see mode... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted Thursday at 04:30 PM Share Posted Thursday at 04:30 PM Would be really nice to be able to lock in a heavy precip event, but there is just too much uncertainty with position of the front, timing of waves, and overall strength of the system. My dream heavy rain scenario is convection along (or just behind) the front later Friday, overrunning showers and storms Friday night, and more elevated convection Saturday with the front hanging around and a shortwave. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted Thursday at 07:21 PM Share Posted Thursday at 07:21 PM 9 hours ago, dailylurker said: I probably should I waited to start this thread. Everything pretty much trended north where they don't need rain. Hopefully it keeps going north. Not trying to ruin the weekend with worthless sprinkles. A good chunk of PA isn't far off from being as bad as us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 08:07 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:07 PM WB 18Z NBM; better than I expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted Thursday at 08:08 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:08 PM By the way my, site very slow for 2 days. Keep getting upload errors... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:48 PM 18z NAM shifts qp south thru Sunday. WPC camps out front near Winchester thru Sat morning then crawling south . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted Thursday at 08:56 PM Share Posted Thursday at 08:56 PM 6 minutes ago, stormy said: 18z NAM shifts qp south thru Sunday. WPC camps out front near Winchester thru Sat morning then crawling south . Yup. 18z NAM is rather dry. A narrow stripe of 1" - 2" along I-66, while just about everyone else gets less than half an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted Thursday at 09:06 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:06 PM 57 minutes ago, Weather Will said: By the way my, site very slow for 2 days. Keep getting upload errors... I've had the same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted Thursday at 09:22 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:22 PM 25 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. 18z NAM is rather dry. A narrow stripe of 1" - 2" along I-66, while just about everyone else gets less than half an inch. 18z 3k NAM looks great to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM Share Posted Thursday at 09:53 PM 29 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 18z 3k NAM looks great to me It also looks great to me compared to earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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