Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[powderfreak]

Absolutely pouring.  I thought the rain shield was down south and wondering why we are getting soaked.

Can’t miss right now.

[bristolri_wx]

Looks like some lower level dry air or mid level dry air knocking down what’s attempting to fall in SNE?

The look on radar between KOKX and KBOX is significant in SNE areas…

Glad we are getting some rain regardless!

[Damage In Tolland]

Torch !

[metagraphica]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Torch !

OooOOOh....RED.   

 

A 40-50% chance that we might be above normal. Could be 0.1 above normal, or +15 above normal, or not above normal at all.

[vortex95]

IL had 20+ tornado reports yesterday, and the state is now over 190 for the year (*reports*, not actual tornadoes, there are duplicate reports in this total).

 

Attached is a map for the bigger state totals through 6/19.  The disparity is amazing.  Why IL only so much more?  It's not like when an area is soaked or buried repeatedly w/ rain/snow.  That is more on the synoptic level and areal coverage is larger.  When you get down to a local level, such as an area that is about avg size for a U.S. state, that's not the same for scale.  And to get tornadoes, it is a lot more conditional (harder) than say a lot of heavy rain or snow over an extended period (CoastalWx would disagree about the heavy snow!). 

 

But given the vagaries of the atmosphere/patterns and given enough time, you are going to see things due to the law of large numbers and averages.  Just pointing this out b/c some try to assign a specific meaning or cause, where sometimes there is none.

 

Yes, I know of the hypothesis that tornado alley is shifting E, but we really do not have enough solid data IMHO.  Tornadoes, esp. weak and short-lived ones, were severely under-counted prior to the 1990s since storm chasing was not yet mainstream, WSR-88Ds did not exist for operational use, nor did the Internet (at least in widespread use).  ~35 years of data is not enough time to establish a trend either way.  I would argue that it wasn't until 2010 or so when we started to get close to actual number of tornadoes that occur every year in the U.S. w/ the  advent of the smartphone and dual-polarization radar.

 

 

[ineedsnow]

We pour! About damn time! 

[ineedsnow]

That storm that is severe warned in NJ looks a bit interesting 

[dendrite]

Just started and dumping. Love it.

63F +RA

0.17" 2.14"/hr

[Damage In Tolland]

Been raining since 10:30

.04 on the day dry under trees 

[metagraphica]

Light rain just a bit ago while out running errands. Temp down to 66 from a high of 71.  

Anti-Stein

Anti-Torch

ASAT

[Cyclone-68]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

IL had 20+ tornado reports yesterday, and the state is now over 190 for the year (*reports*, not actual tornadoes, there are duplicate reports in this total).

 

Attached is a map for the bigger state totals through 6/19.  The disparity is amazing.  Why IL only so much more?  It's not like when an area is soaked or buried repeatedly w/ rain/snow.  That is more on the synoptic level and areal coverage is larger.  When you get down to a local level, such as an area that is about avg size for a U.S. state, that's not the same for scale.  And to get tornadoes, it is a lot more conditional (harder) than say a lot of heavy rain or snow over an extended period (CoastalWx would disagree about the heavy snow!). 

 

But given the vagaries of the atmosphere/patterns and given enough time, you are going to see things due to the law of large numbers and averages.  Just pointing this out b/c some try to assign a specific meaning or cause, where sometimes there is none.

 

Yes, I know of the hypothesis that tornado alley is shifting E, but we really do not have enough solid data IMHO.  Tornadoes, esp. weak and short-lived ones, were severely under-counted prior to the 1990s since storm chasing was not yet mainstream, WSR-88Ds did not exist for operational use, nor did the Internet (at least in widespread use).  ~35 years of data is not enough time to establish a trend either way.  I would argue that it wasn't until 2010 or so when we started to get close to actual number of tornadoes that occur every year in the U.S. w/ the  advent of the smartphone and dual-polarization radar.

 

 

That is a pretty amazing disparity. I hope an angry God isn’t the cause. Ha

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Steady light rain here since about 1pm.

Just what the gardens needed!  

[Typhoon Tip]

Approaching 600 dm non-hydrostats is nuts since the shit version of the GFS in 2017 was retired...

[dendrite]

60.7F 0.30"

[Typhoon Tip]

Euro's just unbearable.    Anything imaginable to stop heat getting in New England, at the end of this rendition used a closed low at 590 heights

I'm not saying I want it hot per se but jesus with that

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

60.7F 0.30"

Haven't you had enough rain?

[MJOatleast7]

26 minutes ago, Cyclone-68 said:

That is a pretty amazing disparity. I hope an angry God isn’t the cause. Ha

What's their congressional voting record?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Haven't you had enough rain?

After last summer keep it coming.

I fertilized and put compost around the fruit trees this morning so I want it drenched in. There's no fungi or water in the basement yet so we good.

[Damage In Tolland]

Steady batch now here . This is our whole rainfall for event next few hours so hoping for at least  .50

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Steady batch now here . This is our whole rainfall for event next few hours so hoping for at least  .50

You will get more later on

[Torch Tiger]

Always looked like a .5-1" type deal. maybe a few higher stripes/ lollis

[TheClimateChanger]

19 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Approaching 600 dm non-hydrostats is nuts since the shit version of the GFS in 2017 was retired...

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

You will get more later on

Nothing is modeled 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

IL had 20+ tornado reports yesterday, and the state is now over 190 for the year (*reports*, not actual tornadoes, there are duplicate reports in this total).

 

Attached is a map for the bigger state totals through 6/19.  The disparity is amazing.  Why IL only so much more?  It's not like when an area is soaked or buried repeatedly w/ rain/snow.  That is more on the synoptic level and areal coverage is larger.  When you get down to a local level, such as an area that is about avg size for a U.S. state, that's not the same for scale.  And to get tornadoes, it is a lot more conditional (harder) than say a lot of heavy rain or snow over an extended period (CoastalWx would disagree about the heavy snow!). 

 

But given the vagaries of the atmosphere/patterns and given enough time, you are going to see things due to the law of large numbers and averages.  Just pointing this out b/c some try to assign a specific meaning or cause, where sometimes there is none.

 

Yes, I know of the hypothesis that tornado alley is shifting E, but we really do not have enough solid data IMHO.  Tornadoes, esp. weak and short-lived ones, were severely under-counted prior to the 1990s since storm chasing was not yet mainstream, WSR-88Ds did not exist for operational use, nor did the Internet (at least in widespread use).  ~35 years of data is not enough time to establish a trend either way.  I would argue that it wasn't until 2010 or so when we started to get close to actual number of tornadoes that occur every year in the U.S. w/ the  advent of the smartphone and dual-polarization radar.

 

 

Wouldn't they have been under counted in Oklahoma as well?

[vortex95]

2 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Wouldn't they have been under counted in Oklahoma as well?

Yes, all states under-counted a lot prior to the 1990s.  Once the NWS Modernization and Restructuring occurred in the 90s, detection or documentation of tornadoes improved considerably.

[Brian5671]

Steady mod/hvy rains here

[CoastalWx]

Best rains may by CT/RI/SE MA with this batch. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

49 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Euro's just unbearable.    Anything imaginable to stop heat getting in New England, at the end of this rendition used a closed low at 590 heights

I'm not saying I want it hot per se but jesus with that

There is a force field over the northeast it seems

[kdxken]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Haven't you had enough rain?

Yeah no s***.

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Yes, all states under-counted a lot prior to the 1990s.  Once the NWS Modernization and Restructuring occurred in the 90s, detection or documentation of tornadoes improved considerably.

So all states would be skewed in the same manner pretty much right? How would that data be invalid for hypothesizing about a movement east of tornado Alley?