Junorch obs and discussion 2026

[TheClimateChanger]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

  ?

I think there's a pattern relative warm bias that is the CC expression that is sort of unnoticed - or maybe ...everyone knows it but chooses to ignore.  I dunno.   But what I mean by pattern relative warm bias is that the pattern essences may actually be verifying better than either the temperatures that result, as well as what folk tend to associate what those patterns look like the temps should be.  

I don't mean that necessarily wrt this last month's behavior ( necessarily...), but I always go ahead and assume two aspects: these 540 dm festering multi contoured hornet stings on the summer D9-13 charts we see over James Bay are not going to do that, and, whatever comes of it...we'll be 2-7F above scalar predictions anyway

It has certainly been a solid first decade of June for summer weather lovers in the northeast IMHO. Many places are in the top 10 for mean maximum temperature - including Caribou, ME (5th), Concord, NH (4th), Providence, RI (T-3rd), and numerous other sites around the region. Would expect these to trend even higher. Was it supposed to be cold or something?

[Typhoon Tip]

11 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It has certainly been a solid first decade of June for summer weather lovers in the northeast IMHO. Many places are in the top 10 for mean maximum temperature - including Caribou, ME (5th), Concord, NH (4th), Providence, RI (T-3rd), and numerous other sites around the region. Would expect these to trend even higher. Was it supposed to be cold or something?

sort of...  As Brian was intimating, there was conjecture/interpretation for a cooler first half of June back whence.

I personally give that the benefit of the doubt ( although privately ... there are those that falter implementation of any 'cold bullshit filter' so they may have a bias contribution that it's totally going so snow on July 20th ... weeee    Excluding that contribution though ), but in doing so, was adding the notion: it seems that verifying warmer than guidance is overwhelmingly the observation compared to colder than guidance, regardless of future patterns being offered. 

I mean it may have even verified a cooler "looking" pattern, but for whatever reason ( probably CC, let's get real - ) your likely to flop on the warm side. 

 

[tamarack]

Morning low of 65 here, first 60+ minima of the season.  First TD near/at 70 as well.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

All I know is after this weekend deep summer is canceled UFN.

Yeah. I keep looking for signs of real sustained heat in the long range and it’s not really there

[Typhoon Tip]

Wow, that's a mean lookin Dercho bitch about to unleash fury on Iowa City

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Bone dry here overall. Hate to see it 

[weatherwiz]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Wow, that's a mean lookin Dercho bitch about to unleash fury on Iowa City

Phil will be going crazy today

[PhiEaglesfan712]

To be fair, many thought it would be a cooler June, due to this being a pre-strong nino summer. Such Junes/summers are notorious for being cooler, like 1972, 1982, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

The only real exceptions to this rule were 1991 and 2015, and both were preceded by a warm neutral ENSO winter. That wasn't the case this year.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Yeah. I keep looking for signs of real sustained heat in the long range and it’s not really there

It’s 6/11. BOS normal is 75/58 today. It’s going to be 2 weeks of WAN by Sunday. We already have powderfreak running his AC at night. I’m not sure what people want or expect?

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s 6/11. BOS normal is 75/58 today. It’s going to be 2 weeks of WAN by Sunday. We already have powderfreak running his AC at night. I’m not sure what people want or expect?

Yeah, dews are 70F right now up here.

It’s warm and humid.  It’s barely mid-June.

Do we need 95F over 75F now until September?

[mreaves]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah, dews are 70F right now up here.

It’s warm and humid.  It’s barely mid-June.

Do we need 95F over 75F now until September?

Cue @CoastalWxto say that is the only acceptable weather in summer.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

To be fair, many thought it would be a cooler June, due to this being a pre-strong nino summer. Such Junes/summers are notorious for being cooler, like 1972, 1982, 1997, 2009, and 2023.

The only real exceptions to this rule were 1991 and 2015, and both were preceded by a warm neutral ENSO winter. That wasn't the case this year.

If anyone is forecasting based upon climate ( and I'm not saying that's what anyone or source actually did - ) they take risks to put it nicely.  

More of a philosophy of approach op ed:  Climate shouldn't be used as much of any correction for any scenario. 

We look over all these modeling depictions and/or cinemas going out way in time.. comparing those to trends ( which trend is a lost/deeper art than most are aware frankly but that's another discussion - ), we get an idea of/what the biases may end up like. That's our prototype/beta forecast.   Once we have that, we can/may/maybe should, reflect on whether or not climate should factor? 

Frankly, it won't factor very much.   

Why?  because climate is a mean of everything that happens.  It says nothing about the SDs that took place along the way - in fact... it hides them!  

Climate invocation should be limited to the obvious:  it's probably won't snow in June; it probably won't be 90 in January - though revisit that in 30 years lol

The fact that Climate Change is hugely coherent and objectively real, and cannot be denied  by anyone that is not diluted ...eh hm, means that all the above is especially made more true.  Because climate inference, itself, is problematic when the proverbial goal posts are moving - not just moving, but accelerating, too.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s 6/11. BOS normal is 75/58 today. It’s going to be 2 weeks of WAN by Sunday. We already have powderfreak running his AC at night. I’m not sure what people want or expect?

That's funny you wrote this... I was wondering how being +2 to +5 for 10 days isn't sustaining?

I guess the subjective side of that needs to be brown out 100s for 10 straight days and with Locus swarms, brimstone and and booming voice from the heavens that says, "I don't like you!"   lol

[SouthCoastMA]

13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

It’s 6/11. BOS normal is 75/58 today. It’s going to be 2 weeks of WAN by Sunday. We already have powderfreak running his AC at night. I’m not sure what people want or expect?

Months and months of torch talk from the usual suspects builds the zeitgeist of the board, so we are conditioned to have  unrealistic expectations. throw in some Greta, and boom

[SouthCoastMA]

Talk of sustained 90/75 this early on is setting yourself up for failure. I expect we all be cooking by late June

[weatherwiz]

OMG it hasn't rained for 3 hours....must be a drought!!!!!!!!!!!

[Typhoon Tip]

Oh my god, I haven't been blue light social media over stimulated in 3 hours, there must be a dystopian wave of horror folding over the horizon

[FXWX]

44 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

OMG it hasn't rained for 3 hours....must be a drought!!!!!!!!!!!

I saw National Guard tanker trucks racing northward on I-95... They are heading to Tolland to water the lawns..

 

[SouthCoastMA]

82/72.  feels like summer

[kdxken]

Something's not matching up. The ponds are nearly full in my area. That doesn't happen in extreme drought.

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Something's not matching up. The ponds are nearly full in my area. That doesn't happen in extreme drought.

The problem is their methodology. If we have lower precip  winter, they count as a negative. But in winter, all the precip  it’s either going into the ground or to the lake and rivers, etc. Nothing is absorbing it. So it makes it look like we are El Paso but it’s just kind of silly if you asked me. It’s definitely been dry but extreme is kind of ridiculous. We actually had decent rain last summer too.

[CoastalWx]

Stream flow is low, but severe makes it sound like everything is drying up.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, mreaves said:

Cue @CoastalWxto say that is the only acceptable weather in summer.

Truth 

[dendrite]

Scott is right about piss poor w.e. measurements in some of the big snow events. Slap on a few inches there. The last 20+ years have been really wet overall too and that has caused a bump up in the 30 years normals. Throw in a slightly dry stretch and the same period looks a lot drier now than it would’ve in the 90s.

I’m not saying it hasn’t been BN in some areas long term, but I think lake and stream levels are better indicators. And don’t get me started again about 1” lawns.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Scott is right about piss poor w.e. measurements in some of the big snow events. Slap on a few inches there. The last 20+ years have been really wet overall too and that has caused a bump up in the 30 years normals. Throw in a slightly dry stretch and the same period looks a lot drier now than it would’ve in the 90s.

I’m not saying it hasn’t been BN in some areas long term, but I think lake and stream levels are better indicators. And don’t get me started again about 1” lawns.

Logan is referenced all the time. Have an intern look up the coops and they’ll see it’s off by 2-3” total LEQ for the late Jan and late Feb snow events. But the media just blindly runs with it.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Logan is referenced all the time. Have an intern look up the coops and they’ll see it’s off by 2-3” total LEQ for the late Jan and late Feb snow events. But the media just blindly runs with it.

[CT Valley Snowman]

91 and steamy.  

[jbenedet]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

It’s 6/11. BOS normal is 75/58 today. It’s going to be 2 weeks of WAN by Sunday. We already have powderfreak running his AC at night. I’m not sure what people want or expect?

Yea our June’s have been so incredibly warm recently that our collective bias is +5 

 

[Brewbeer]

5 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

91 and steamy.  

I installed one yesterday and the other this morning.