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May 2026 Obs/Discussion


weatherwiz
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00z GFS significantly stronger and tucked back farther W w/ the closed 500 low for May 30.  It shows 4-8" parts of nrn NH.  What stands out is that the 00z GFS/ICON and the earlier UKMET show substantial QPF, 2-3" in some areas.  This is absolutely key for the Scott S+ this time of year (intensity).

I like that the GFS is showing more sfc low development just S of the region for more ageostrophic flow.
 

gfs3.png

gfs2.png

gfs1.png

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1 hour ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

We’ve already lost next weekend. WTF?

It will be worth it for the sneaky S+ risk!  Noted the 06z GFS has a max of 4.55" rainfall right over FIT.  Seems a lot for such a low track.  Where is all the moisture coming from, esp. since there is not much of a sfc low initially?  GFS not so OTL it seems b/c the 00z ECMWF has a max of 2.81" in the same exact spot.

That kind of pcpn intensity and a cold 850?  Things that make you go hmmmm....

gfs.png

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