May 2026 Obs/Discussion

[weatherwiz]

Unfortunately, the prospects for any sustained temperatures above the seasonal average is quite low as we move into the month of May and we may even have to wait fairly deep into May to flip the script. Unseasonably strong late season blocking continues to be a dominant mode within the Arctic domain and Greenland resulting in troughniess and below average heights dominating from the northern Inter-mountain West region across the northern Plains, upper-Midwest, and Northeast. There are some hints on the GFS/Euro we could see this pattern breakdown a bit moving towards mid-May, however, it is very possible that is a bit too optimistic and it is just the weighting of climo towards the end of the run making it appear the pattern will breakdown. 

Hopefully towards the back end of the month we can introduce some heat, humidity, and severe weather chances. While May is the beginning of severe weather season, that doesn't mean we get flooded with threats right away. Just like how June 1 is the official beginning to the Atlantic hurricane season...we aren't flooded with hurricanes on June 2. Patience, patience, patience.