Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Ya i think we whiten tomorrow.. HRRR is fun 

We're onto next season.

[Typhoon Tip]

59 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Could see some squalls or heavier snow showers moving through right in time for AM rush hour tomorrow

I noticed that too... 

Might be the last snow in air we see outside alpine regions until the mandatory, season ruining Halloween 3.7"

[Typhoon Tip]

39 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It doesn't help that the increase in temps is more likely to be observed nocturnally, which doesn't help awareness/mindfullness. I'm not saying the daytime maxes aren't warming....they absolutely are, but it's just that it's realized to an even greater degree at night.

OH yeah, that's an excellent point. 

I keep having to also remind myself that we are not running around naked at 3:29 a.m. when it's supposedly a warm cloth Asian massage out there.  

Seriously... there's probably a pretty significant sensible/exposure bias involved - there has to be... we're human "animals".   Completely enslaved to what we see, hear, smell, touch or taste in our defining the nature of our surrounding.

It's also as least partial in why CC is so easy to collectively deny ... it just doesn't readily appeal. Not readily enough.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

OH yeah, that's an excellent point. 

I keep having to also remind myself that we are not running around naked at 3:29 a.m. when it's supposedly a warm cloth Asian massage out there.  

Seriously... there's probably a pretty significant sensible/exposure bias involved - there has to be... we're human "animals".   Completely enslaved to what we see, hear, smell, touch or taste in our defining the nature of our surrounding.

It's also as least partial in why CC is so easy to collectively deny ... it just doesn't readily appeal. Not readily enough.

I never realized CC was so XXX.

[ineedsnow]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

certainly could see some coatings on grassy/colder surfaces 

I could see a inch or two here if things break right.. NAM and HRRR look good

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I could see a inch or two here if things break right.. NAM and HRRR look good

That might be a tough ask. Ski areas up north though I could wee getting 2-4...maybe 5". 

[Brian5671]

6 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Long period of Stein beginning 

https://x.com/jimcantore/status/2041071819201859899?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

TORCH!!!

[SouthCoastMA]

 

hmm

On 3/17/2026 at 4:00 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

There will probably be some nuisance colder-profile storm on April 7th or something that drops 1-3" of slop somewhere in elevated SNE. But I'm pretty much done with winter at this point. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

5 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

 

hmm

Not bad!

[ineedsnow]

16 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Not bad!

Getting some flakes here now

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Getting some flakes here now

It’s been off and on flurries all day in Greenfield.

[DavisStraight]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We're onto next season.

Super Duper El Nino?

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like 80's for the 14th 

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks like 80's for the 14th 

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

maybe you'll hit 60°? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Definitely a warm look upcoming.  

[mreaves]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Definitely a warm look upcoming.  

As Journey sang: 

So here I am with open arms
Hoping you'll see what your dews mean to me
Open arms
 

[Damage In Tolland]

Mass installs later this week 

[powderfreak]

The consistent squally weather has been at least mildly interesting today.

Super sharp gradients to each of them…

It snows hard then rolls out, some of them miss you by 100 yards or so.

Not snowing over here but hard on the other side of the field. Then eventually moves in.

[metagraphica]

Super Duper El Nino?

Let’s do it!

[ineedsnow]

2 hours ago, Torch Tiger said:

Looks like 80's for the 14th 

Sounds about right..  probably going to be slightly warmer than average this summer with slightly below average precip

[dendrite]

20 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

Let’s do it!

+3C ONI is what we want

[Torch Tiger]

Strongest ever Nino.. lfg

[Typhoon Tip]

The (not so) sci-fi version of this El Nino...

It will rise to historic proportions, but ... no one saw the bigger issue coming - though in retrospect, really should have. Why? because it already happened once, in 2023.  The whole planet surged, by almost .4 C spanning a 2.5 month period that spring, brining the planet perilously close to the theorized threshold of +1.5 C  over the IR.   Only this time ... by a whole degree C       Such that not only are we at 2.5 over the Industrial Revolution entry mean, it is so crazy warm that relative ONI renders almost meaningless outside of the immediate tropical atmosphere.  Vaguely coupling to the mid latitude pattern ( meaning weakly correlating)   

It's going to be the first panic year of this ongoing CC explosion, which just moves slower than human perception - geologically?   It's detonating.  

0 summer ice in 5 years.  

Roth slides into the ocean...   Global tsunamis claims a billion lives

[kdxken]

Folks are spooked from this past winter. I've been getting inquiries on large amounts of firewood recently. Way earlier than usual. I guess the commander in Chief may have something to do with it.

[vortex95]

3 hours ago, metagraphica said:

Let’s do it!

Strongest in a century?  We don't have adequate/detailed enough ocean temp records prior to the 1970s to properly quantify the true extent of super El Ninos, which explains why we have only have had 3 since the 1980.
https://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

of 4 if you use RONI: 
https://ggweather.com/enso/roni.htm

Also, any headline that asks a question, the answer is almost always a "NO."  It is a devious way to present something as if it will happen when it is not likely to happen or highly uncertain at the time.  This is done in wx en masse w/ teasing suppositions and conjectures.

And the sub-headline states:

"increasingly likely wide-reaching climate impacts that last into 2027."

First, it is not climate impacts, it is wx impacts.  Atmospheric phenomena impacted from El Nino are short-term.  That is wx, not climate.  It does not impact "average wx over a long period," it impacts individual wx events/patterns of various degrees in the 1-1.5 year window El Ninos last.  This idea that wx=climate and vice versa is ridiculous.  Changing the meaning of words to fit a narrative/ideology.

Second, why wouldn't El Nino (of any strength, or La Nina for that matter) not have wide-reaching impacts?  This is redundant.  We know ENSO has wide-reaching impacts, as do the at least a dozen other global and hemispheric oscillations that exists.

Third, how can a potential of something be increasingly likely to have impacts?  You have something that is uncertain to occur (potential), so how can it be scaled as being increasingly likely to have impacts when you are not even sure if it will occur in the first place?  You are putting the wagon in front of the horse here.  

Not being pedantic here.  How science-based information is conveyed is important.  Not defining terms correctly or using improper logic/reasoning is bad science.

[Masswx]

A super nino here means napril all of next winter here