Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs

[rclab]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Beautiful forecast for International Falls , Minnesota. 

Sooner or later they all catch up. Stay well, as always …

 

[dendrite]

Can’t wait for my 4pm warm sector on Friday that slams shut sunrise Saturday. Sat looks like definite toast now. NAM has screen doors slamming shut in CT midday.

[Typhoon Tip]

The more I look at this .. I wouldn't trust any warm pattern up our way through at least mid month.

Not saying it will be like today - this is something else entirely. There are fewer days out of a year actually this repugnant. This is something uniquely egregious.  

We could get lucky ... but we can't seem to shake a negative anomaly in the deep troposphere circulation mode wobbling around the Canadian archipelago to D. straight and back.  And as that is persistently there, the flow is naturally going to be episodically confluent across S-SE Canada.   That's going to generate these high pressures that then suppress the ambient late season polar boundary S ...probably south of climatology at times, too. 

That PV has been plaguing that region for months, really... As we embark upon the warm season, it's not relenting... not yet anyway.  I think until that does we relay on being lucky... Since I live here, and want it to be warm, unfortunately ... that means everyone else that wants it warm will end up    UN   lucky

Probably we'll log another NASA month where relative to everywhere else around, we have a negative offset cooler region over SE Can/NE U.S. when the March numbers are settled. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Oh good, 38° with more sleet coming down.  
What an ass day.  
Happy 2nd day of Asspril! 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The more I look at this .. I wouldn't trust any warm pattern up our way through at least mid month.

Not saying it will be like today - this is something else entirely. There are fewer days out of a year actually this repugnant. This is something uniquely egregious.  

We could get lucky ... but we can't seem to shake a negative anomaly in the deep troposphere circulation mode wobbling around the Canadian archipelago to D. straight and back.  And as that is persistently there, the flow is naturally going to be episodically confluent across S-SE Canada.   That's going to generate these high pressures that then suppress the ambient late season polar boundary S ...probably south of climatology at times, too. 

That PV has been plaguing that region for months, really... As we embark upon the warm season, it's not relenting... not yet anyway.  I think until that does we relay on being lucky... Since I live here, and want it to be warm, unfortunately ... that means everyone else that wants it warm will end up    UN   lucky

Probably we'll log another NASA month where relative to everywhere else around, we have a negative offset cooler region over SE Can/NE U.S. when the March numbers are settled. 

Ya we did manage to get pretty lucky in March down here with 10 days of 63+ from March 8th through April 1. 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya we did manage to get pretty lucky in March down here with 10 days of 63+ from March 8th through April 1. 

Given the colder waters this year I'm a bit surprised-I was planning on back door hell

[OrangeCTWX]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the colder waters this year I'm a bit surprised-I was planning on back door hell

We pray the GFS is right about next weekend 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Given the colder waters this year I'm a bit surprised-I was planning on back door hell

Plenty of time for it.

[weatherwiz]

I feel like there is not much of a correlation between water temperatures and backdoor cold front potential. Perhaps there would be a correlation to the strength of the boundary or maybe the distance the front can traverse. But even when water temperatures are above average this early, they are still pretty chilly. Ultimately its likely tied into synoptic or sub-synoptic flow. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Snowing in Hubbardston 

[Chrisrotary12]

Saw some mangled flakes mixing in a bit ago. 

[Torch Tiger]

@ineedsnow snowing at a good clip in Salem nh 

[Typhoon Tip]

Yeah, our prime BD season isn't here yet.  

we can't blame every NE accelerating wind field on BDs.   BD synoptics are pretty specifically defined, and yesterday into today really isn't what that is.   There may have been some tendency/shared physical space, as Scott pointed out yesterday, there was some identifiable rad signatures that a BD-line boundary was involved, but the primary facet/influence in this case is a strong N front with a big high building in.  You don't have those features with a typical BD.

BD's require a s/w moving ESE N of Maine... As it passes, NVA behind creates DVM and this coupled to the colder marine environment underneath and produces a pressure/density discontinuity where more mass is NE of the region E of the Berkshire/White cordilleras.   This triggers a vector moving back SW to "fill" that region with the denser/colder air.

And it will do so with the ability to snap flags, wave trees around and slam doors shut as Brian mused....  I've seen BDs with very little discernible actual high pressure at the synoptic scale, with 30 kt NE wind bursts kicking up dust before. 

These are found most so in late April thru early June.    Before then, we have more hybrid types like yesterday  - which fits the time of year actually.  Just a nasty nasty cfront.  By the way, ...if you look down at the Del Marva penn and S, it's a BD for them.  Now imagine the climate of May around here, we're like they are today

[Typhoon Tip]

I keep seeing this repeating theme in our monthlies that are above normal.  The ballast of the warmth appears to be occurring in fewer days than the mode.  The modes are actually showing more days nearer to neutral and/or negative. 

Below is HFD for March a just one example

 

[dendrite]

We could get the CO2 to 1k ppm and this region would still find a way to rot near climo in the spring.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I keep seeing this repeating theme in our monthlies that are above normal.  The ballast of the warmth appears to be occurring in fewer days than the mode.  The modes are actually showing more days nearer to neutral and/or negative. 

Below is HFD for March a just one example

 

I keep hearing about that too. Like as if 2-3F AN in March that’s heavily driven by 5 days in a row of warmth is supposed to make me feel good. 

[SJonesWX]

33 degrees with occasional snow/sleet/rain.

napril indeed.

[CoastalWx]

Leaf out in DAW.

[tamarack]

We've got a WWA tonight into tomorrow morning for IP/ZR and the AFD also has RA Saturday night into Sunday, but the P&C forecasts show 7 days with nary a drop for every place in the GYX CWA (at least Portland to Jackman).  Computers are fun.   CAR area forecasts are more logical.