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Napril 2026 Discussion/Obs


Torch Tiger
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As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent.   Day after day after day ...   

Nope. 

There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind.   So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights.  Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement -

I don't wish CC upon the world.   But it is unfortunately for the world, real.   Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge.  We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else!   And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count. 

image.png.185140345bd13909fa194f94363ae922.png

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35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent.   Day after day after day ...   

Nope. 

There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind.   So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights.  Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement -

I don't wish CC upon the world.   But it is unfortunately for the world, real.   Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge.  We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else!   And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count. 

image.png.185140345bd13909fa194f94363ae922.png

Not a thing to worry about…take it to the bank. 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

As I take a hit off my coffee every morning, I keep hoping the modeling cinemas I'm about to let roll will at last depict a big correction ridge bloomin' over east/mid latitude continent.   Day after day after day ...   

Nope. 

There's some semblance in the 500 mb ( Euro op) for ridging to roll back up next week, but I can tell without looking, day after day after day... once again, it stops short of what I had in mind.   So...then I go look at the sfc evolution for those 500 mb frames and yep ... piece of shit over the top high pressure driving in a BD butt bang, if not an outright cold front that seemingly shouldn't be be so aggressively slicing into the warm heights.  Clearly doing so because the Euro model was a corroborative engineering effort between Indeedsnow and NY Metro law enforcement -

I don't wish CC upon the world.   But it is unfortunately for the world, real.   Seeing as that is the case, and we're pretty well solidly fucked to stop it - incredulously so ... - we may as well find some way to enjoy what time remaining in our species MAGAdian-Darwinian cliff rush we have before it all starts going over the edge.  We could at least wallow in our crapulence for creating a global temperature curve whence relative to date, the world is currently at a historic high ... by making it actually fucking warm here... and not everywhere else!   And no ... some random 75 F day here or there doesn't count. 

image.png.185140345bd13909fa194f94363ae922.png

Yeah this region despite being very warm in March was still shielded from the crazy +10 to +20 departures over 70 percent of the country. 

It's going to take a Pac NW style summer ridge to wake people up. Unfortunately we need to see 110-120F temperatures over multiple days that will shut the grid down for people to get a clue. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah this region despite being very warm in March was still shielded from the crazy +10 to +20 departures over 70 percent of the country. 

It's going to take a Pac NW style summer ridge to wake people up. Unfortunately we need to see 110-120F temperatures over multiple days that will shut the grid down for people to get a clue. 

Agreed ...  Brian and I have had this discussion in the now distancing past but again, those heat explosions that took place in the Pac NW and London ...SE Asia, step country of the Urals, Moscow and Austrialia ...those were all synergistic events.  That's when several factors, not just the synoptic footprint, feed back and the modeling technology just doesn't really do that?   SO you end up with product that far surpasses expectation.   

The closes we've come to seeing that E of the Mississippi Valley and N of the Mason Dixie, in modern era whence these synergistic heat waves became a recurring global phenomenon, is the 2012 heat wave.  However, that was restricted to far SW and was squeezed further S and eventually demolished by a massive Derecho/processing event. 

Simply put, we have not had one here.   Despite 102 once in awhile, that's not it.  We could possibly argue that the May heat up in Ontario the bled into NNE a couple years around the early 2020s but 90s mmm there was some resonate feedback going on there, but it was mostly just lacking the DP input into those that drove that.  It was multi-sourced and "bursting" over modeling either.  

I've actually begun to suspect that it is harder for this area to achieve the synergy.  We just have too many available negative inputs... squeezing our circumstance manifold down to lesser ways to get that to happen - it becomes lower odds. 

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