3/15-3/16 Winter Storm

[Chicago Storm]

2 hours ago, Baum said:

Not really. He’s basically saying still a lot of moving parts and not to trust anyone solution. Which is playing out in real time. Note the model shifts just in the last 12 hours. Which is why I complemented LOT. Issued a conservative call but with some flexibility if short term trends change. Looks like 2-4 still in play here in Dupage. I’ll take it and than gladly close the book.

essentially this.

just take a look at ens guidance currently, and the range that still exists at this time.

some ens have a non-event south of the wi/il border, some favor cycloneville for, others favor the mchenry area crew, and there are numerous that favor the metro.

[cmillzz]

2 hours ago, A-L-E-K said:

1-2 inches of rain and dab still the call

LOT generally agrees with you. Seems like they're not really buying into the high totals the Euro has for the western suburbs too.

[Met1985]

42 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah, Wausau seems to be the cutoff for true winters in WI. I go up there a few times each winter for snowmobiling and relaxation. The gateway to the northwoods, a beautiful area especially when you get into the forests north of town. 

Yeah you are right about that. Merrill is pretty nice. I worked for Canadian National railroad as a freight train conductor when I was living there. 

[madwx]

Been a sleet/freezing rain fest for the past couple hours.  Bright banding overhead is pushing reflectivities very high

[laferri2]

Small flakes in Traverse City right now. Waiting to see how the icing works out. 

[cyclone77]

Occasional rumbles of thunder, steady rain, and down to 38 degrees.

[Malacka11]

The qualm before the storm

[sbnwx85]

South wind really started picking up in the last hour. Gusting between 40-50 mph. Temp is up to 64.

[Chicago WX]

Caught a break with the high wind warning for here. LOT calling for 65 mph gusts, and we've only managed a few around 32 so far. You know, this area needs all the help we can get with the ongoing recovery.

Going to be interesting to see happens with winter part in N IL. Hope to see an inch or two here, which looks like a decent possibility.

And this from the blizzard warning text for Green Bay. 2-4"/hour. Awesome. 

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions expected. Snow, heavy at
  times with snowfall rates of 2 to 4 inches per hour. Additional
  accumulations between 9 and 13 inches with the lowest totals
  towards Oshkosh and Chilton. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph will
  result in considerable blowing and drifting snow and blizzard
  conditions into Monday. The Monday morning commute will be severely
  impacted.

[Baum]

Does LOT upgrade to Blizzard warning for Boones Farm County and go WWA for remainder of CWA ?

[ILSNOW]

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[Chicago WX]

1 minute ago, ILSNOW said:

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Trash model. Been lost the whole time.  

[SchaumburgStormer]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

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[RogueWaves]

16 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

What was your peak depth? Detroit peaked at 9" Jan 26-29 and Feb 7.

9.5 in December right before the pull-back. Nearly that (9+) later in Feb again right before the final thaw-off.

Windy storms have made measurement a challenge but Harrison has had 8.5-9" since Friday, and I went from a bare balcony to now a 10" drift. Looks like mid-January again out there and I was ready for spring tbh. 

This from APX is not nice - so glad to miss this round of ice. 32F attm here at home.

Unfortunately, whoever gets into the heavier freezing rain will
likely see significant impacts...to include power outages and tree
damage...with both of these being exacerbated by increasingly gusty
winds during the day Monday. And, unlike last years historic ice
storm, the ground temperatures are several degrees colder with this
event...supporting very icy driving conditions as well.

[Geoboy645]

48 minutes ago, madwx said:

Been a sleet/freezing rain fest for the past couple hours.  Bright banding overhead is pushing reflectivities very high

Yeah the trees are starting to get the freezing rain look right now. This could be an issue once the change over happens and the wind starts to pick up. 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Col front just pushed through. Down 6 degrees in the last 20 minutes 

[madwx]

Switched over to snow here.  About 6 hours ahead of schedule 

[Geoboy645]

Wausau still looks like the winner so far with 24 inches reported around 2 a few miles west of town. With the defo band still to come they may get to 30+ before it's all set and done.

[McHenrySnow]

11 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Col front just pushed through. Down 6 degrees in the last 20 minutes 

Yep, bit surprised at how fast temp has fallen and how early. Models last night were definitely keeping 50s around for several more hours.

[McHenrySnow]

0z HRRR last night. Upper 50s forecast for 7 pm. Didn't quite hit 55 before front went through.

[McHenrySnow]

12z HRRR was trending colder, but it's currently colder now than it has it at 7 pm. Let's see how this works out. 

[cutlew]

This deformation band parked over the Twin Cities has picked up noticeably in intensity the last hour or so. More frequent winds too. Might bode well for those of you interested in its evolution over the next 12-18 hours.

Measured about 11" otg here when I took the dog out at 1:30. Maybe another inch or so if these bands can stay for a while longer. My parents' house up in the NE corner of WI is at 24" from the band that just finally moved out. Crazy they're in line for another 6-12"+ once the storm ramps up again overnight

[cmillzz]

7 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

0z HRRR last night. Upper 50s forecast for 7 pm. Didn't quite hit 55 before front went through.

ORD just tagged 60. Should be near freezing there by midnight though

[Nelson]

We've got some decent icing on trees/raised surfaces. Temp down to 31F now. Thinking the next batch of precip moving in from S/SW should be snow. Well ahead of schedule (per models).

[Sciascia]

Big thunderstorm ongoing here. Our cat has made her scurry behind the couch for protection.

[cmillzz]

LOT sticking with their guns, smart move imo.

[SchaumburgStormer]

35 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Yep, bit surprised at how fast temp has fallen and how early. Models last night were definitely keeping 50s around for several more hours.

Down to 37, bottom really fell out fast 

[cutlew]

This deformation band parked over the Twin Cities has picked up noticeably in intensity the last hour or so. More frequent winds too. Might bode well for those of you interested in its evolution over the next 12-18 hours.
Measured about 11" otg here when I took the dog out at 1:30. Maybe another inch or so if these bands can stay for a while longer. My parents' house up in the NE corner of WI is at 24" from the band that just finally moved out. Crazy they're in line for another 6-12"+ once the storm ramps up again overnight

View from their house in WI this morning. The trees are maybe 100 yards from the window.

[Baum]

9 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

LOT sticking with their guns, smart move imo.

Subtle upticks in accumulations further east. 

[michsnowfreak]

DTW had a trace of light snow early this morning. It was 40° at 11am and has shot up to 70° at 4pm