2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[SnowenOutThere]

Could tomorrow be a possible severe weather day?

We have strong low level lapse rates, good CAPE and some turning of winds with height - though next to no increase with height. Seems like some sort of thunderstorms should be likely along anything that could trigger forcing. 

[yoda]

Maybe?  Afternoon day 2 SPC disco

.Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic...
   Along/south of a stalled surface front, ample diurnal heating amid 
   upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints and limited inhibition should promote
   widely scattered thunderstorms from the middle OH Valley into the
   Mid-Atlantic during the day. While midlevel flow will be modest, a
   subtle speed max glancing the area should contribute to around 25-30
   kt of effective shear. This should promote a couple loosely
   organized clusters capable of producing damaging wind gusts and
   isolated, marginally severe hail. A relatively higher corridor of
   severe potential is possible over northern VA and vicinity, though
   confidence in storm coverage and overall intensity was too low to
   upgrade at this time.

[yoda]

SLGT risk for the region on 13z OTLK from SPC... 0/5/15

[SnowenOutThere]

Severe warned storms down around Roanoke. Seems more active than forecasted so far. 

[jmk]

Heavy storm in Gainesville. Heavy rain and pea sized hail. Lots of lightning as well

[Bob Chill]

Second tstorm of the day for my yard. Nothing severe but some good gusts with the first one. One right now is pretty noisy but looks like the severe stuff will stay to my NW. Enjoying the booms and rumbles either way 

[MDSnow93]

Heard a couple nice rumbles of thunder in Germantown. Light showers, but the drops look massive

[clueless]

Some thunder but pouring here - just west of IAD in Sterling. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Every storm this year has delivered for me, should bode well for summer.

[SLPressure]

Lots of noise, not much wind. .80 rain in 1 hr. Nice downpours, overwhelmed the gutters. Temp dropped 15 degrees.

National  Harbor.

[SnowenOutThere]

SPC has us in a day three marginal risk which prompted me to take a look

NAM has a line of broken storms enter the region after a bit of clearing with 1000 CAPE values running right along I-64. We have 40-50kt of bulk shear and a good bit of lower level turning. Reminds me a bit of March 15th but less extreme and maybe a bit more heating. 

Wonder what yall think about it

[yoda]

Surprised that its been 15 years since the April 27 2011 event... popped up on my FB memories 

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Surprised that its been 15 years since the April 27 2011 event... popped up on my FB memories 

Time is freaking FLYING. 

[yoda]

Hmmmm... afternoon AFD from LWX about Wednesday.  Granted we will likely fail... but only chance for a while 

The better chance for showers and some thunderstorms would be on
Wednesday as a brunt of the upper trough moves toward the
Eastern Seaboard. A remnant MCV will likely be wrapped up in
this larger scale trough, the timing and amplitude of which will
dictate the extent of any strong to severe weather in the Mid-
Atlantic. As is typical with these features, their finer scale
details (as well as leftover upstream convective debris) cast
uncertainty into the extent of heating/instability. Conditionally
speaking, increasing winds throughout the lower/mid troposphere
on Wednesday as this wave approaches. Large scale ascent also
increases. The most likely area for appreciable instability to
develop would be southwest of a line from roughly Elkins WV to
Ocean City MD. This area is closer to the source of low-level
moisture return, and may see some better heating southeast of
more abundant clouds and in the vicinity of a developing warm
frontal feature. Resultant thunderstorm activity may tend to
track along the warm front later in the day, again contingent
upon the extent of available instability. Some risk for gusty to
damaging winds or perhaps a tornado or two may develop, with an
even more conditional risk of hail should stronger more discrete
cells develop.

 

[yoda]

Interesting.... morning day 2 from SPC 

..Allegheny Plateau into Mid Atlantic...
   Given the spread among the latest model output concerning the
   initial surface frontal low migrating through the Ohio Valley, and
   the developing surface troughing/warm front to the east of the Blue
   Ridge, substantial uncertainty remains concerning the convective
   potential for this period.  Remnant convective cloud cover and rain
   overspreading the region early in the day may also impede
   destabilization.  However, with at least weak to moderate
   boundary-layer destabilization, strengthening wind fields and
   forcing for ascent associated with an approaching mid-level jet
   could become conducive to organized severe storm development.  This
   may initiate west of the Allegheny Mountains, and include potential
   for evolving supercell structures, before developing to the east of
   the Blue Ridge by late Wednesday afternoon into evening.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 hours ago, yoda said:

Surprised that its been 15 years since the April 27 2011 event... popped up on my FB memories 

That event was the biggest tornado outbreak that I can remember. The only other event that even comes close in my mind was April 16-17, 2011. Both events even spun tornadoes up into our area.

[George BM]

Is there anyone here that was in or around La Plata, MD 24 years ago today?

[Poodleusier]

36 minutes ago, George BM said:

Is there anyone here that was in or around La Plata, MD 24 years ago today?

I was at my Dad's house in Waldorf the day the tornado went through La Plata.  Less than 10 miles from where the tornado passed.  It was a wild storm even there.  At one point the rain stopped and it was nothing but hail.  Golf ball to tennis ball sized.  We watched the hail strip the branches off trees as it came down.  Got some nice hail dents on my car, but luckily no broken glass.  When I headed back to Germantown that night, it was a constant stream of emergency vehicles headed down Rt 5.

[nw baltimore wx]

3 hours ago, Poodleusier said:

I was at my Dad's house in Waldorf the day the tornado went through La Plata.  Less than 10 miles from where the tornado passed.  It was a wild storm even there.  At one point the rain stopped and it was nothing but hail.  Golf ball to tennis ball sized.  We watched the hail strip the branches off trees as it came down.  Got some nice hail dents on my car, but luckily no broken glass.  When I headed back to Germantown that night, it was a constant stream of emergency vehicles headed down Rt 5.

Was that the same day as the College Park tornado at UMCP?

[George BM]

47 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Was that the same day as the College Park tornado at UMCP?

No it wasn't. That tornado occurred on September 24, 2001.

Coming to think about it... it sure was something that we got two different significant/violent tornadoes in the area a little over 7 months apart.

[southmdwatcher]

I was in the supercell 24 years ago as well. Very heavy rain HP supercell and then the back half of the storm passage was all hail. I did see what became the 2nd tornado/waterspout as this storm crossed into the Bay....but overhead in southern St Charles...rapidly rotating funnel maybe no more than 100 to 200 feet above us. The trees were swaying but none fell. That was immediately preceded by some clearing and the steam coming up from all the hail. Just an incredible storm. 

 

I drove down to La Plata and I remember so many windows busted along the way by hail. Then seeing the guard rails wrapped around the tops of the trees a considerable distance away from the 301/Rt 6 intersection. Wild stuff.

[dailylurker]

25 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

I was in the supercell 24 years ago as well. Very heavy rain HP supercell and then the back half of the storm passage was all hail. I did see what became the 2nd tornado/waterspout as this storm crossed into the Bay....but overhead in southern St Charles...rapidly rotating funnel maybe no more than 100 to 200 feet above us. The trees were swaying but none fell. That was immediately preceded by some clearing and the steam coming up from all the hail. Just an incredible storm. 

 

I drove down to La Plata and I remember so many windows busted along the way by hail. Then seeing the guard rails wrapped around the tops of the trees a considerable distance away from the 301/Rt 6 intersection. Wild stuff.

I saw wild things in La Plata. I talked to the father of some poor teenage girl that worked at the Taco Bell that got obliterated. She was standing next to him in shock still. He brought her back there so she could understand what happened. Her friend that worked there was still missing if I remember correctly. I have no idea how she survived unhurt. The only thing left was the stools that were bolted to the foundation. The tornado ripped the blacktop off 301 where it crossed. It was an EF5. I'll fight anyone that says different lol

[Poodleusier]

41 minutes ago, southmdwatcher said:

I was in the supercell 24 years ago as well. Very heavy rain HP supercell and then the back half of the storm passage was all hail. I did see what became the 2nd tornado/waterspout as this storm crossed into the Bay....but overhead in southern St Charles...rapidly rotating funnel maybe no more than 100 to 200 feet above us. The trees were swaying but none fell. That was immediately preceded by some clearing and the steam coming up from all the hail. Just an incredible storm. 

 

I drove down to La Plata and I remember so many windows busted along the way by hail. Then seeing the guard rails wrapped around the tops of the trees a considerable distance away from the 301/Rt 6 intersection. Wild stuff.

I was in St Charles.  Based on the track of the storm, we were probably 3 miles or so from actual storm track.  And we were clueless.  We weren't watching a local channel on cable TV, so no storm warnings were popping up.  Wasn't until my girlfriend called and ask if we were OK, and told me a tornado went through La Plata that we had a clue.  I drove down to La Plata the next weekend when I went to visit my Dad that I saw the obvious track of the tornado.  The utter destruction at 301 & Rt 6...  A fast food restaurant with nothing left but a slab and about a foot of plumbing pipes sticking out of the concrete.

[SnowenOutThere]

I wasn't alive for the storm but reading the Wikipedia article and apparently the tornado warning was issued with only a 5 minute warning time for the city itself. Just crazy to think about and how far we've managed to come since then. Shows the value that the NWS and research provides us and what happens when they are neglected or undeveloped. Also sort of neat that it added to the conversation to change to the EF instead of the regular F scale. 

[WxUnit]

00z Euro had an interesting look for next Thursday. Decent shear and placement of the low, would like to see some more instability though. Still, its far out and possibly something to track over the next week. 

[high risk]

I don't really understand the MRGL for the DC area.   It makes some sense for areas further south and west, but while the low-level shear should be decent this evening, there really isn't much of a path to sfc-based instability.   I'll be happy if we can just get some heavy convective elements with thunder.

[SnowenOutThere]

3 hours ago, high risk said:

I don't really understand the MRGL for the DC area.   It makes some sense for areas further south and west, but while the low-level shear should be decent this evening, there really isn't much of a path to sfc-based instability.   I'll be happy if we can just get some heavy convective elements with thunder.

Great, really need UVA to get slabbed to cancel my finals so I'm putting all my eggs in this basket. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Actual analysis and honestly, I think SW VA and especially eastern WV might be in for an interesting evening. Though we are socked in the wedge; WV and points west of Shenandoah will clear out high level clouds and are getting surface heating, as a consequence we are seeing CAPE values rise past 1000 pretty quick. 

The three hour CAPE change really shows that area of clearing in the warm sector ahead of the front too. If we are able to burn enough of the low clouds (which is doubtful) then even central VA could get some surface based storms.

Our surface LRs do suck - as expected - but clearly that's not stopping rotating supercells from occurring at time of writing in WV. After all our wind environment is on the "concerning" side for what we usually see in our area. We have good turning with height (seen with HRRR predicted sounding for Cvill). 

I mainly felt compelled to make this post after seeing the cell over central WV which has a nice rotating updraft and hook echo. Feels like tonight is a night that probably won't see anything happen; but, on a rare chance could be a night to remember for some unlucky folks. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Cell I was talking about in WV has a well defined couplet with a debris ball though is still under a severe T-storm warning

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Cell I was talking about in WV has a well defined couplet with a debris ball though is still under a severe T-storm warning

I don't like to criticize the NWS but Charleston dropped the T-storm warning and now has this completely unwarned as it approaches a town which just seems really bad and one of the worst misses I've seen when it comes to tornado signatures. It had a better circulation and more lofted debris ball beforehand too! It even had a separate debris ball 30 minutes ago now!