2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The area to watch 

 

   Agreed.  HRRR has a pretty good handle on it, and while I'm still not totally sold on the severe threat, it's moving into a more favorable environment.

[SnowenOutThere]

Got mesocyclones on the warned storms. Could see a potential tornado threat given some time. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Got mesocyclones on the warned storms. Could see a potential tornado threat given some time. 

Little cluster down 81 let’s see if these storms fire up more. One by Hagerstown has my attention 

[aldie 22]

Dumping 

[midatlanticweather]

Spidy sense on that storm north of Luray. 

[midatlanticweather]

[aldie 22]

Loud thunder and windy as it passes through Stephenson 

[paxpatriot]

Got a brief warning up here in Greencastle. Not the longest duration storm, but it packed a punch. Some tiny hail with it. Looks like it blew up pretty good to my east in Waynesboro, PA. I’d say anywhere along the M/D should watch out on that line.

[dailylurker]

The line of storms west of DC has definitely gained a little juice. It's super warm and a little saucy feeling here in the lowlands. 

[Mrs.J]

Things just got crazy here. Pouring rain and a lot of wind. Thunder and the sky is backlit. 

[mappy]

Tornado warning west and including Westminster

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Tornado warning west and including Westminster

Knew that area by Hagerstown would do something 

[Mrs.J]

Passed through here. Picked up .15” of rain. Still have thunder and got a rainbow. Sun out. So happy that Mr. J got home before all this hit. 270 looks like it is absolutely getting slammed!

[wxmeddler]

Parr's Ridge convergence zone strikes again.

[bncho]

Lots of thunder.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Tornado warning here


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[WxUSAF]

^whoa

[Nomz]

3 hours ago, Nomz said:

Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.

never let me forecast again

[bncho]

damn that radar

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

never let me forecast again

Snow is tricky enough, but severe is it's own brand of tricky...might wanna leave it to @Kmlwx and company, lol

[Mrs.J]

Backside of the storm. 

[dailylurker]

Damnit. Fist whiff of the season in the lower lowlands 

[Nomz]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Sbow is tricky enough, but severe is it's own brand of tricky...might wanna leave it to @Kmlwx and company, lol

SVWX is definitely my "specialty" though. What got me into weather, and what is still my favorite to forecast. To be fair I was probably right about the DC area, we just don't have enough instability because we had a local area of persistent cloud deck for basically the entire day.

[Maestrobjwa]

Tornado warning even here in the city

[Nomz]

Feels a bit overaggressive to warn such broad, weak rotation.

[WxUSAF]

Nice gusty shower in progress. My wife saw a lightning strike in the distance as it approached, but no T&L that I can hear or see with the rain. 

[Nomz]

This event is very driven by 700mb forcing. Local maxima NW of Baltimore, where the most severe storming is, and much less flow with southern extent, which is causing the southern side of the storm to be much weaker. Our temp/dew spreads are a little wider down here as well, which is not helping matters.

[MN Transplant]

Ah connective season.  That means a trace of rain and thunder somewhere in the distance.

[Kleimax]

A little wind in Pikesville, Power flickered a few times. Nothing crazy 

[AdamHLG]

Two years ago we were hit by a direct strike and it caused $70k of damage to our house. It is incredible how the perspective changes once that has happened.


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