2026 Mid-Atlantic Severe Storm General Discussion

[high risk]

24 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

The area to watch 

 

   Agreed.  HRRR has a pretty good handle on it, and while I'm still not totally sold on the severe threat, it's moving into a more favorable environment.

[SnowenOutThere]

Got mesocyclones on the warned storms. Could see a potential tornado threat given some time. 

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Got mesocyclones on the warned storms. Could see a potential tornado threat given some time. 

Little cluster down 81 let’s see if these storms fire up more. One by Hagerstown has my attention 

[aldie 22]

Dumping 

[midatlanticweather]

Spidy sense on that storm north of Luray. 

[midatlanticweather]

[aldie 22]

Loud thunder and windy as it passes through Stephenson 

[paxpatriot]

Got a brief warning up here in Greencastle. Not the longest duration storm, but it packed a punch. Some tiny hail with it. Looks like it blew up pretty good to my east in Waynesboro, PA. I’d say anywhere along the M/D should watch out on that line.

[dailylurker]

The line of storms west of DC has definitely gained a little juice. It's super warm and a little saucy feeling here in the lowlands. 

[Mrs.J]

Things just got crazy here. Pouring rain and a lot of wind. Thunder and the sky is backlit. 

[mappy]

Tornado warning west and including Westminster

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

Tornado warning west and including Westminster

Knew that area by Hagerstown would do something 

[Mrs.J]

Passed through here. Picked up .15” of rain. Still have thunder and got a rainbow. Sun out. So happy that Mr. J got home before all this hit. 270 looks like it is absolutely getting slammed!

[wxmeddler]

Parr's Ridge convergence zone strikes again.

[bncho]

Lots of thunder.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Tornado warning here


.

[WxUSAF]

^whoa

[Nomz]

3 hours ago, Nomz said:

Almost clear in DC, although we still might have some cloud deck coming in, according to vis sat. Already 84/54 at DCA, so it will be nearly impossible for storms to get down to the surface. The HRRR and RRFS are progging ~500 CAPE peak for DC, while the NAM nest and RAP are >1000. Usually, I'd lean towards the RAP, but both it and the NAM are initializing too cold (3 degrees or so), so I'll lean towards the HRRR and RRFF, which show a kind of isolated low-topped supercell event. Maybe some small hail.

never let me forecast again

[bncho]

damn that radar

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Nomz said:

never let me forecast again

Snow is tricky enough, but severe is it's own brand of tricky...might wanna leave it to @Kmlwx and company, lol

[Mrs.J]

Backside of the storm. 

[dailylurker]

Damnit. Fist whiff of the season in the lower lowlands 

[Nomz]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Sbow is tricky enough, but severe is it's own brand of tricky...might wanna leave it to @Kmlwx and company, lol

SVWX is definitely my "specialty" though. What got me into weather, and what is still my favorite to forecast. To be fair I was probably right about the DC area, we just don't have enough instability because we had a local area of persistent cloud deck for basically the entire day.

[Maestrobjwa]

Tornado warning even here in the city

[Nomz]

Feels a bit overaggressive to warn such broad, weak rotation.

[WxUSAF]

Nice gusty shower in progress. My wife saw a lightning strike in the distance as it approached, but no T&L that I can hear or see with the rain.