March Madness

[Lava Rock]

3.75". Looks like that'll be it.

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[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

3.75". Looks like that'll be it.

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Not bad for daytime accumulation in late March!

[psv88]

48 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.
 

You must be fun at parties 

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Not snowblowing. Let it melt.

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I'll need to pack a track on our driveway with the car, or we don't get mail delivery.  Gassed up the snowblower just in case, but unless we get 6"+ it will remain silent.

[Damage In Tolland]

1-3” tomorrow morning ?

[Torch Tiger]

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.
 

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat.   I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review.  lol.  

Standard deviation would settle it among scholars 

 

[NW_of_GYX]

5.5” at home, about the same at pleasant

Back to winter for a few days, photo from earlier this morning 




.

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

I wouldn't trust warmth ... not that you are, just sayn'.  

Just an example, recall that 77 F two or so weeks back.   It looked an awful lot like this 12z Euro run when it was 10 days out, too.  It turned out to be one day's worth.  Granted, it was a ginormous one day..      

The thing with heat in the latter mids/ext ranges, it is about the least dependable anomaly of all them when it comes to early lead and staying power in the guidance.  I'd put the infamous D9 Euro coastal bomb ahead of a warm pattern, particularly any lasting more than just an afternoon warm sector.  They just get eaten at either end.  Tweak the deep layer circulation mode a little and we BD and gobble 30 hours trying to erode it out on the front side...meanwhile, CC continues to instruct a faster than normal balanced geostrophic wind velocity problem which speeds things up 24 hours by the time it gets into short range.  There's 2.5 days of your warm up, gone.   

Maybe not exactly but it's always something around here in the spring. 

Having said all that, there's a verifying tendency - so far - to revert back to an SPV gyrating around between Hudson Bay and Baffin Island... that's red flag for prick tease warm patterns.

[vortex95]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat.   I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review.  lol.  

Standard deviation would settle it among scholars 

 

Understood.

Standard deviations is one of a number of ways to gauge measure an event.  Also, not all significant standard deviations, regardless of what wx parameter you chose, result in the same sensible wx or societal impact.  Such as anomalously high 500 mb heights.  That works for the heat in the Desert SW currently, but many times do not b/c first, we do not live at 500 mb, and second, what goes on at the near and the sfc is what matters.  You can have record high 500 mb heights, but nothing special as to deviations for sfc temp b/c the strength and position of the sfc high relative to your location.

[tamarack]

59 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not bad for daytime accumulation in late March!

Not that uncommon at 44N and above, but I can recall only 2 post-equinox events in NNJ that featured accumulating snow thru the day.  First one was March 29, 1970, which happened to be Easter.  Snow started about 9 AM and dumped 11" at temps low-mid 20s, ending in the evening at our Morris County home.  2nd was on a NNJ visit (we lived in Fort Kent then) when the forecast included a winter storm warning on April 19, 1983.  Snow began at dawn and continued until late evening - had some issues accumulating midday but never quit.  We measured that one also at 11", but in Ogdensburg, Sussex County.  (Three years later, on our next visit to New Jersey, a cold rain on April 22 turned to snow in the evening and that deformation band dumped 13" of paste at our friend's house, about 1,200' asl.  Down to the center of Blairstown, about 500' asl, they had a sloppy 5-6".  We wondered if they'd ever let us back in NJ.)

[HoarfrostHubb]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” tomorrow morning ?

Several pieces of guidance (NAM, Euro, HRRR) suggest that for some

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

5.5” at home, about the same at pleasant

Back to winter for a few days, photo from earlier this morning 




.

East side action. Pretty cool to see open this late in season.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Several pieces of guidance (NAM, Euro, HRRR) suggest that for some

Some knew?

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some knew?

Nothing yesterday. Came back today. But probably a lot of white rain outside of spots north of pike and elevated. Maybe inv trough action tomorrow evening. 
 

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Top 10 type day today. 

[CoastalWx]

There might be a very narrow area that get an inch or two tomorrow morning where we have good vertical motion, otherwise it’s a lot of 33 to 34 Fahrenheit snow that probably doesn’t do much. Tomorrow evening could be interesting as temps drop. 

[dendrite]

3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

That is correct. I never it is wasn't a record breaking air mass.

Local contamination from infrastructure is common even in sparely populated areas. Parking lots, vehicle traffic, solar panel arrays, AC units, etc. all contribute. And the digital thermometers have a warm bias compared to glass thermometers b/c they record instantaneous temp and react quickly to any changes in the air.  ASOS use 5-min avg temp to mitigate this, but sensors and equipment out there are far from standardized, never mind not all ideally located (look the areal view of the official temp sensor in Death Valley, parking lots and solar arrays all around).  So it's not just UHI that skew temp records.

It's all too easy to get caught up in it all when big wx events occur.  I get that.  It is our passion for wx that drives it.  However, we should not let that cloud our judgement when talking about caveats and shortcomings that just happen to "deflate" that excitement or how impressive it is.  Taking everything as face value and acting there is nothing to question or analyze is not a good scientific position.

Well I actually think ASOS is pretty good. The bigger issues in my mind are siting and a lack up upkeep in sensor maintenance. GYX had issues at CON years ago because airport maintenance decided to put dark mulch around the ASOS so they didn’t have to mow anymore. BDL just had an issue fixed last year that was causing them to run a solid 2F too warm. But I don’t have an issue with digital thermometers and fan aspiration.

And I seem to recall someone telling me once that they had wanted to have automation take over at the Visitor Center, but the digital temps consistently ran cooler than the max/min in the Stevenson screen so it never happened.

The same thing happened at Central Park when that poor excuse for an ASOS replaced the COOP.

[Lava Rock]

Not that uncommon at 44N and above, but I can recall only 2 post-equinox events in NNJ that featured accumulating snow thru the day.  First one was March 29, 1970, which happened to be Easter.  Snow started about 9 AM and dumped 11" at temps low-mid 20s, ending in the evening at our Morris County home.  2nd was on a NNJ visit (we lived in Fort Kent then) when the forecast included a winter storm warning on April 19, 1983.  Snow began at dawn and continued until late evening - had some issues accumulating midday but never quit.  We measured that one also at 11", but in Ogdensburg, Sussex County.  (Three years later, on our next visit to New Jersey, a cold rain on April 22 turned to snow in the evening and that deformation band dumped 13" of paste at our friend's house, about 1,200' asl.  Down to the center of Blairstown, about 500' asl, they had a sloppy 5-6".  We wondered if they'd ever let us back in NJ.)

Always amazed how you can pull dates and events like they happened yesterday. While sitting here with some wine, i was reading through my 1993 journal when i was going to Orono, but parents still had lake house on great pond. That season started bad but Feb made up for it. 115" on the seaon with 3' on ground early march. Here's a fun photo of me on the 88 Ski Doo. Good times.

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[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing yesterday. Came back today. But probably a lot of white rain outside of spots north of pike and elevated. Maybe inv trough action tomorrow evening. 
 

 

It’s been there the whole time if folks knew what to look for . 

[dryslot]

5.0” so far.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been there the whole time if folks knew what to look for . 

Beer? 

[DavisStraight]

Bad water break in Lewiston, you ok Dryslot? Looks downtown.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Beer? 

I haven’t wavered . I should get to 70”

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I haven’t wavered . I should get to 70”

You might be too far south.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You might be too far south.

It’s 20-30 miles either side of 90

[NW_of_GYX]

49 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

East side action. Pretty cool to see open this late in season.

Plenty of snow on that side these days. Snowmaking upgrades plus boyne budget has made a big difference. Rumor has it will be open 7 days a week next season. 

[vortex95]

56 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Nothing yesterday. Came back today. But probably a lot of white rain outside of spots north of pike and elevated. Maybe inv trough action tomorrow evening. 
 

 

 

[powderfreak]

3.5” of waterlogged snow.  Can squeeze water out of it.