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March Madness

Prismshine Productions

By Prismshine Productions,
in New England

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powderfreak
powderfreak

ICON with the follow up wave on Monday pasting SNE. I beat the cops and ineedsnow to it…

TauntonBlizzard2013
TauntonBlizzard2013

Gas up 55 cents in less than a week here. Folks better hope the cold weather shuts off in the next 10 days because they are going to need to borrow from their 401k for future heating bills. I am

WinterWolf
WinterWolf

I’ll take it…And It won’t last long…unlike the previous mummy. You’ll see! 

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psv88

psv88

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.
 

You must be fun at parties 

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
48 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Not snowblowing. Let it melt.

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

I'll need to pack a track on our driveway with the car, or we don't get mail delivery.  Gassed up the snowblower just in case, but unless we get 6"+ it will remain silent.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.
 

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat.   I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review.  lol.  

Standard deviation would settle it among scholars 

 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

I wouldn't trust warmth ... not that you are, just sayn'.  

Just an example, recall that 77 F two or so weeks back.   It looked an awful lot like this 12z Euro run when it was 10 days out, too.  It turned out to be one day's worth.  Granted, it was a ginormous one day..      

The thing with heat in the latter mids/ext ranges, it is about the least dependable anomaly of all them when it comes to early lead and staying power in the guidance.  I'd put the infamous D9 Euro coastal bomb ahead of a warm pattern, particularly any lasting more than just an afternoon warm sector.  They just get eaten at either end.  Tweak the deep layer circulation mode a little and we BD and gobble 30 hours trying to erode it out on the front side...meanwhile, CC continues to instruct a faster than normal balanced geostrophic wind velocity problem which speeds things up 24 hours by the time it gets into short range.  There's 2.5 days of your warm up, gone.   

Maybe not exactly but it's always something around here in the spring. 

Having said all that, there's a verifying tendency - so far - to revert back to an SPV gyrating around between Hudson Bay and Baffin Island... that's red flag for prick tease warm patterns.

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vortex95

vortex95

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat.   I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review.  lol.  

Standard deviation would settle it among scholars 

 

Understood.

Standard deviations is one of a number of ways to gauge measure an event.  Also, not all significant standard deviations, regardless of what wx parameter you chose, result in the same sensible wx or societal impact.  Such as anomalously high 500 mb heights.  That works for the heat in the Desert SW currently, but many times do not b/c first, we do not live at 500 mb, and second, what goes on at the near and the sfc is what matters.  You can have record high 500 mb heights, but nothing special as to deviations for sfc temp b/c the strength and position of the sfc high relative to your location.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted
59 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not bad for daytime accumulation in late March!

Not that uncommon at 44N and above, but I can recall only 2 post-equinox events in NNJ that featured accumulating snow thru the day.  First one was March 29, 1970, which happened to be Easter.  Snow started about 9 AM and dumped 11" at temps low-mid 20s, ending in the evening at our Morris County home.  2nd was on a NNJ visit (we lived in Fort Kent then) when the forecast included a winter storm warning on April 19, 1983.  Snow began at dawn and continued until late evening - had some issues accumulating midday but never quit.  We measured that one also at 11", but in Ogdensburg, Sussex County.  (Three years later, on our next visit to New Jersey, a cold rain on April 22 turned to snow in the evening and that deformation band dumped 13" of paste at our friend's house, about 1,200' asl.  Down to the center of Blairstown, about 500' asl, they had a sloppy 5-6".  We wondered if they'd ever let us back in NJ.)

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, vortex95 said:

That is correct. I never it is wasn't a record breaking air mass.

Local contamination from infrastructure is common even in sparely populated areas. Parking lots, vehicle traffic, solar panel arrays, AC units, etc. all contribute. And the digital thermometers have a warm bias compared to glass thermometers b/c they record instantaneous temp and react quickly to any changes in the air.  ASOS use 5-min avg temp to mitigate this, but sensors and equipment out there are far from standardized, never mind not all ideally located (look the areal view of the official temp sensor in Death Valley, parking lots and solar arrays all around).  So it's not just UHI that skew temp records.

It's all too easy to get caught up in it all when big wx events occur.  I get that.  It is our passion for wx that drives it.  However, we should not let that cloud our judgement when talking about caveats and shortcomings that just happen to "deflate" that excitement or how impressive it is.  Taking everything as face value and acting there is nothing to question or analyze is not a good scientific position.

Well I actually think ASOS is pretty good. The bigger issues in my mind are siting and a lack up upkeep in sensor maintenance. GYX had issues at CON years ago because airport maintenance decided to put dark mulch around the ASOS so they didn’t have to mow anymore. BDL just had an issue fixed last year that was causing them to run a solid 2F too warm. But I don’t have an issue with digital thermometers and fan aspiration.

And I seem to recall someone telling me once that they had wanted to have automation take over at the Visitor Center, but the digital temps consistently ran cooler than the max/min in the Stevenson screen so it never happened.

The same thing happened at Central Park when that poor excuse for an ASOS replaced the COOP.

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Lava Rock

Lava Rock

Posted
Posted
Not that uncommon at 44N and above, but I can recall only 2 post-equinox events in NNJ that featured accumulating snow thru the day.  First one was March 29, 1970, which happened to be Easter.  Snow started about 9 AM and dumped 11" at temps low-mid 20s, ending in the evening at our Morris County home.  2nd was on a NNJ visit (we lived in Fort Kent then) when the forecast included a winter storm warning on April 19, 1983.  Snow began at dawn and continued until late evening - had some issues accumulating midday but never quit.  We measured that one also at 11", but in Ogdensburg, Sussex County.  (Three years later, on our next visit to New Jersey, a cold rain on April 22 turned to snow in the evening and that deformation band dumped 13" of paste at our friend's house, about 1,200' asl.  Down to the center of Blairstown, about 500' asl, they had a sloppy 5-6".  We wondered if they'd ever let us back in NJ.)
Always amazed how you can pull dates and events like they happened yesterday. While sitting here with some wine, i was reading through my 1993 journal when i was going to Orono, but parents still had lake house on great pond. That season started bad but Feb made up for it. 115" on the seaon with 3' on ground early march. Here's a fun photo of me on the 88 Ski Doo. Good times. 20260322_143312.jpg

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