March Madness

[Lava Rock]

3.75". Looks like that'll be it.

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[vortex95]

8 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

3.75". Looks like that'll be it.

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Not bad for daytime accumulation in late March!

[psv88]

48 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.
 

You must be fun at parties 

[tamarack]

48 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Not snowblowing. Let it melt.

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I'll need to pack a track on our driveway with the car, or we don't get mail delivery.  Gassed up the snowblower just in case, but unless we get 6"+ it will remain silent.

[Damage In Tolland]

1-3” tomorrow morning ?

[Torch Tiger]

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, vortex95 said:

I said this about flawed premise:

And the concept of "wins the debate" is a flawed premise.  What matters in science are facts and the truth.  It does not care about who "wins" or "loses."

I was not talking about the definitions from the norm or anomalies.  I was talking about the idea of "win" or "lose" and that concept bring brought into a scientific discussion.  So your reply is a non-sequitur.
 

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat.   I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review.  lol.  

Standard deviation would settle it among scholars 

 

[NW_of_GYX]

5.5” at home, about the same at pleasant

Back to winter for a few days, photo from earlier this morning 




.

[MJO812]

32 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

LOL

[Typhoon Tip]

50 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Heck of a 12z euro. Big summer incoming

I wouldn't trust warmth ... not that you are, just sayn'.  

Just an example, recall that 77 F two or so weeks back.   It looked an awful lot like this 12z Euro run when it was 10 days out, too.  It turned out to be one day's worth.  Granted, it was a ginormous one day..      

The thing with heat in the latter mids/ext ranges, it is about the least dependable anomaly of all them when it comes to early lead and staying power in the guidance.  I'd put the infamous D9 Euro coastal bomb ahead of a warm pattern, particularly any lasting more than just an afternoon warm sector.  They just get eaten at either end.  Tweak the deep layer circulation mode a little and we BD and gobble 30 hours trying to erode it out on the front side...meanwhile, CC continues to instruct a faster than normal balanced geostrophic wind velocity problem which speeds things up 24 hours by the time it gets into short range.  There's 2.5 days of your warm up, gone.   

Maybe not exactly but it's always something around here in the spring. 

Having said all that, there's a verifying tendency - so far - to revert back to an SPV gyrating around between Hudson Bay and Baffin Island... that's red flag for prick tease warm patterns.

[vortex95]

26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh, it sounded at the time like people were comparing dick sizes on which region was dealing with the bigger cold vs heat.   I probably didn't get the gist of the conversation right - which I'm not about to scroll back and review.  lol.  

Standard deviation would settle it among scholars 

 

Understood.

Standard deviations is one of a number of ways to gauge measure an event.  Also, not all significant standard deviations, regardless of what wx parameter you chose, result in the same sensible wx or societal impact.  Such as anomalously high 500 mb heights.  That works for the heat in the Desert SW currently, but many times do not b/c first, we do not live at 500 mb, and second, what goes on at the near and the sfc is what matters.  You can have record high 500 mb heights, but nothing special as to deviations for sfc temp b/c the strength and position of the sfc high relative to your location.

[tamarack]

59 minutes ago, vortex95 said:

Not bad for daytime accumulation in late March!

Not that uncommon at 44N and above, but I can recall only 2 post-equinox events in NNJ that featured accumulating snow thru the day.  First one was March 29, 1970, which happened to be Easter.  Snow started about 9 AM and dumped 11" at temps low-mid 20s, ending in the evening at our Morris County home.  2nd was on a NNJ visit (we lived in Fort Kent then) when the forecast included a winter storm warning on April 19, 1983.  Snow began at dawn and continued until late evening - had some issues accumulating midday but never quit.  We measured that one also at 11", but in Ogdensburg, Sussex County.  (Three years later, on our next visit to New Jersey, a cold rain on April 22 turned to snow in the evening and that deformation band dumped 13" of paste at our friend's house, about 1,200' asl.  Down to the center of Blairstown, about 500' asl, they had a sloppy 5-6".  We wondered if they'd ever let us back in NJ.)

[HoarfrostHubb]

55 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” tomorrow morning ?

Several pieces of guidance (NAM, Euro, HRRR) suggest that for some

[Baroclinic Zone]

39 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

5.5” at home, about the same at pleasant

Back to winter for a few days, photo from earlier this morning 




.

East side action. Pretty cool to see open this late in season.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Several pieces of guidance (NAM, Euro, HRRR) suggest that for some

Some knew?