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"Don’t do it" 2026 Blizzard obs, updates and pictures.


Ginx snewx
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5 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah the NBM was way overdone in a lot of the region.   

Well the SREFS are part of that so there you go, That was driving the numbers up up here but 8 cycles in a row it was trimming them.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

We're still getting used to the forecast process now, and the NBM is good, but it still has some big holes.

One is that it provides us with snow ratios, but it nearly always too high. It is too frequently in the 15-20:1 range. 

box.GIF

As an example for BOX's CWA, if you just had your extended forecast living in the 8-14:1 range you would be a lot less susceptible to these kinds of NBM busts.

As a rule (I had mentioned this before the mega SWFE on 1/25-26), I try not to stray over 13 or 14 to 1 even in cold events that look “decent” in the soundings. That’s basically the cold snow climo in a lot of New England (outside of the upslope zones).

Unless you have overwhelming model consensus on strong crosshair sigs in an event that isn’t super complex or long-duration….that might be the exception. 

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13 minutes ago, Vinny Findley said:

What part of Cranston are you in? I'm 1/2 mile from Walmart. There's over 2 feet on my street. They're big trucks with big blades but can only do so much with this amount of snow!

I'm not too far from you. I'm in Eden Park—just south of Rolfe Square.

Yeah, it's tough trying to keep up with the low visibility and the snowfall rates. 
A guy I know who plows for the city was stranded for a couple of hours this morning.

 

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1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Not at all.  That didn't even enter my mind.  I'm thinking government waste and corruption, bridges falling down in disrepair, high taxes and cost of living.

But if that's what entered your mind first, that's something for you to address, not me.

Nah.  Not really.  But thanks for your concern.

Waste and corruption compared to a guy whinning about snow is just as llaughable.  

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Storm sort of sucked here in the valley. 10" or so I'd say but it definitely compacted a lot with the wind. 

Glad we stuck with the conceptual model and hit the deform band out in far W CT and the firehose out east. 

Looks like RI and MA will break their all-time state 24-hour snowfall records.

Rhode Island - 30.0" Woonsocket (1978) 

Massachusetts - 29.0" Natick (1997)

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

As a rule (I had mentioned this before the mega SWFE on 1/25-26), I try not to stray over 13 or 14 to 1 even in cold events that look “decent” in the soundings. That’s basically the cold snow climo in a lot of New England (outside of the upslope zones).

Unless you have overwhelming model consensus on strong crosshair sigs in an event that isn’t super complex or long-duration….that might be the exception. 

You can see from the study that only 1 in 4 obs is greater than 13:1 in SNE, maybe 1 in 10 greater than 20:1.

Even factoring in people who measure once when the storm is done or the next morning with compaction, you're maybe moving the SLR 2 inches, not 5+.

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2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad the water equiv at the ASOS is useless. Hopefully they augment that by melting the w.e. down.

Although I see PVD reports snow pack water equiv every 18z…it was 1.5” yesterday and 4.1” at 18z today. So roughly 2.6” of liquid from their 32.8” new at 1pm.

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Too bad the water equiv at the ASOS is useless. Hopefully they augment that by melting the w.e. down.

 

1 minute ago, The 4 Seasons said:

but we've learned they never do...

Unfortunately ASOS is king, and that liquid is what goes in for the climate. Even if the snow observer reports more (or less). 

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