Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[DDweatherman]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

This batch is accumulating

Excellent 

[WxUSAF]

To get accumulation, I think the first step is to increase rates above drizzle lol

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Dude this event is weird. Driving through blue ridge and penmar…1300 feet there was about 1.5” maybe in grass… down to 1100 and 1000 on the way down, basically nothing, and rain snow mix.

Meanwhile, I have almost 2” in the grass at 900ft about a mile from Carroll Valley..

Yeah. Not sure what to think. For MBY it's IVT or bust it seems

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Did you see my post above? Why am I the local jack at 900 ft elevation in Carroll valley just east of the ridges vs places just west at blue ridge summit having similar and then 1k-1200ft having wet grass west of pen mar? 

I'm going to be totally honest with you...I have no clue how you managed to pull that off!! Potentially rates and you just happen to be better off? I'd take my money and run!!! 

[aldie 22]

Just now, mattie g said:

I don’t even know where the hell you live anymore.

Haha im a few miles northeast of Winchester 

[wasnow215]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Euro precip after 5 and 7. Good luck!

Nowcasting time

[DDweatherman]

Just now, MillvilleWx said:

I'm going to be totally honest with you...I have no clue how you managed to pull that off!! Potentially rates and you just happen to be better off? I'd take my money and run!!! 

So, LUCK?! Damn time for a lottery ticket perhaps? Need that to translate to the norlun later. The euro says I do.

[Paleocene]

17z HRRR is consistent with showing the flippage battle happening between 3pm-5pm for the broader forum. 

[Imgoinhungry]

All you doom and gloom peeps in here know we arent under a WSW until 3pm, right?


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[mappy]

35 with drizzle at the moment. Going as expected imby, when rates picks up it snows, then back to drizzle/light rain in between heavier pockets of precip. Had to pick up kiddo from a friends an hour ago, about 10 miles south. Was snowing when I left, then rain at the friends house. Elevation helping for sure. 

[SBYWeather]

Huge flakes mixing in here in SBY on the eastern shore of MD, temp 36.2 currently

[Bubbler86]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

@Bubbler86 @paxpatriot

Over/under for 3 " for our yards? 

IVT maybe just a little east on the latest model runs.

 

I go over but I question the warning.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

I go over but I question the warning.

I still think 4-6 for you guys. That was my call for the yard as well.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Imgoinhungry said:

All you doom and gloom peeps in here know we arent under a WSW until 3pm, right?


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People are looking at the current temps/rates and extrapolating.

[HighStakes]

Drizzle. 

[bncho]

over under 6" imby

[SnowenOutThere]

Really starting to see the precip shield reblossom as the coastal low starts getting ready to crank. 

[Imgoinhungry]

People are looking at the current temps/rates and extrapolating.

So what is the issue? We are a few degrees warmer currently than what this mornings models showed?


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[aldie 22]

Still dumping roof tops getting white now which is new. If im to believe the hrrr this is it for me

[Stradivarious]

Snow in Salisbury MD

[EHoffman]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

over under 6" imby

Under but it's close.  My o/u for here is 2.5"

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

So what is the issue? We are a few degrees warmer currently than what this mornings models showed?


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The wetbulb temp for Frederick is right at freezing and I would not expect the valley to get any accumulation until after sunset. Storm is really just getting started. 

[NorthArlington101]

over under 6" imby

I’m thinking 3-4” is a good close burbs number. Hope you are closer to correct

[Grothar of Herndon]

Temp up 39/35

Light rain

[CAPE]

Been continuously in these heavy bands. Right on the edge. Should see action increase further west at the low strengthens.

 

[Imgoinhungry]

The wetbulb temp for Frederick is right at freezing and I would not expect the valley to get any accumulation until after sunset. Storm is really just getting started. 

Right. But i questioned why people are so doom and gloom and someone said folks are extrapolating the data.


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[bncho]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m thinking 3-4” is a good close burbs number. Hope you are closer to correct

I bet you the inv trough delivers more than we expect. It'll be fluffly 12:1 snow falling at 2" per hour.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m thinking 3-4” is a good close burbs number. Hope you are closer to correct

Over under 4”, those who get the norlun will be safely over

[MillvilleWx]

Snowing at my parents place west of Rehoboth. Massive flakes and sticking to the grass and tables outside. 

[Solution Man]

Sad rain and 36, will be lucky to see flakes out here