Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[WxUSAF]

Most nearby PWSs down to 35 now in east Columbia. Still mostly rain. Maybe 50/50 snow and rain in heavier bursts.

[wxdude64]

Just clouds and 38.0/31.5 here. I'm too far SW this time, I'll just root for those N and E to get a decent snow from the sidelines. 

[LeesburgWx]

Finally getting some big rain drops and mix to fall here 

[paxpatriot]

Moderate snow and 32.7 here. Grass has caved but the roads and walkways have been stubborn.

Friend just sent me a pic from Sabillasville area. They have several inches already.

[LeesburgWx]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Preface by noting two different forecast time stamps. We should know where the norlun is setting up by 22z-00z (5-7 pm est) based on radar sigs from the CAMs:

 

My guess is we will know by 5-6 pm

Round Hill to Sterling is the place I am watching for it to set up per latest guidance. How wide it is will help more people, as well 

[Hank Scorpio]

Temp on my PWS is sloooooooowly creeping down, just now showing 35.8

As soon as the yellows got overhead here in Leesburg again we went right back to a rain / snow mix. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Round Hill to Sterling is the place I am watching for it to set up per latest guidance. How wide it is will help more people, as well 

I sure hope so, we’d be right in the middle of that if correct

[Solution Man]

Rain 35f

[87storms]

16 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

I made it up to Gambrills Park. It's full on winter up here. My truck is reading 34 at about 1200'. There's about 2" otg and snowing lightly. The roads are also covered up here. I'm headed up even higher. I'll report back.

Dang lol, I haven’t been able to see the mountain all morning.

[Ji]

rain and snow mixed. 35.5 degrees. Lowest we had was 34.9 degrees a few hours ago.
 

What the ratio?

[EstorilM]

Down to 35.4, first wet flakes of the event just started mixing in (south of Leesburg.)

 

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

Round Hill to Sterling is the place I am watching for it to set up per latest guidance. How wide it is will help more people, as well 

I'm on the eastern edge of the IVT right now. I need it to be a little bit wide, just as lots of other forum members

[jayyy]

Preface by noting two different forecast time stamps. We should know where the norlun is setting up by 22z-00z (5-7 pm est) based on radar sigs from the CAMs:

 
My guess is we will know by 5-6 pm

HRRR appears to he more correct with initializing SLP position

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I sure hope so, we’d be right in the middle of that if correct

Doesn’t seem like it setting up west of us is as much a threat now as it setting up just to our east. Time will tell

[Ji]

Finally getting some big rain drops and mix to fall here 

Nam3k said around 11 right?

[nesussxwx1]

Don't look at the RGEM folks..

[Ji]

HRRR appears to he more correct with initializing SLP position

Low is so close. Crazy that precip is so narrow in scope

[baltosquid]

15 minutes ago, snowfan said:

You’re still many hours from anything accumulating. Nothing has changed.

I never disputed anything. I’m observing the poor returns that don’t correlate with temperatures dropping. It’s nowcasting time and the nowcast has light rates.

[nw baltimore wx]

Why does WBAL have a ticker running across my screen saying that the WSW goes until 12AM Tuesday?  

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, nesussxwx1 said:

Don't look at the RGEM folks..

It has never been bullish on this event… Looks the same as it always has for this event.

[LeesburgWx]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Nam3k said around 11 right?

Feels a little early here. But an official mix falling now. I’m in Hamilton near Purcellville

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Snowman. said:

It has never been bullish on this event… Looks the same as it always has for this event.

Heck part of me kinda hopes it's right. I guess I'm a misery loves company kind of guy. 2" here and 9" in NYC might be better than 5" here and 25" in NYC. Sorry 

[JakkelWx]

radar filling in nicely. thing of beaut

[87storms]

4 minutes ago, nesussxwx1 said:

Don't look at the RGEM folks..

Looks about the same as the nam regarding qpf. I might need to accept that Frederick is getting the Norlun.

[snowmagnet]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

It has never been bullish on this event… Looks the same as it always has for this event.

I do not trust the RGEM. Been burned too many times on it being bullish and giving hope!

[GATECH]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Heck part of me kinda hopes it's right. I guess I'm a misery loves company kind of guy. 2" here and 9" in NYC might be better than 5" here and 25" in NYC. Sorry 

We will take our participation trophy and like it!  37.9, drizzle…

[Weather Will]

36, very light mix.  Actually hope heavier precip. Moves in after 2 as we start to lose sun angle for the day.

[Jrlg1181]

Best falling snow of the past couple years.... large flakes about .25 inch on the ground despite being about 35 temp...

[kfwalther]

Hanging around 37/38 degrees here with rain in eastern Leesburg, VA


.

[CAPE]

The "Norlun" starts to form here, then reaches maximum intensity as it moves eastward. What I see is lower level convergence of wind fields and aloft there is piece of vorticity that causes divergence. That equals lift. Whatever you want to call it, it produces heavy snow.