Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread

[Eskimo Joe]

12 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why are people fight when we are about to have the best storm since 2016

Because someone else will get more snow than them.

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Rgem just hates this storm.  seemy pretty wet. 

It’s a furnace at the surface.

[bncho]

no joke, i'm at 36/28. I dropped like 3 degrees in 30 minutes

[weatherCCB]

36/28

[Wxtrix]

48 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Not so sure about that my man. Here’s through 38 hrs….

 

that is a work of art out my way. still can't believe the change in my forecast over the last 12 hours.

[JakkelWx]

down to 33 now

[Ji]

22 minutes ago, bncho said:

obs looks better than a lot of model initializations FWIW

dont start this weenie hallucination stuff

[jayyy]

Lets see if the GFS can come west 50 miles in 30 minutes... that should brighten the mood.

It probably won’t and we won’t pay any mind lol

[konksw]

Jan 2019 was the best since 2016. 

[jayyy]

dont start this weenie hallucination stuff

You are the literal definition of a weenie hallucination, Ji. Let the kid be

[Eskimo Joe]

Somehow I'm down to 33°?

[bncho]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Somehow I'm down to 33°?

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

[nj2va]

38/31

[Solution Man]

34/30 looking for Norlun

[BristowWx]

34/32.  After a scorching day.  Interesting. 

[gopper]

3 hours ago, LP08 said:

It’s a furnace at the surface.

very consistent with qpf. but the snow fall has decreased almost through out our region.  We shall see.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

dont start this weenie hallucination stuff

Now is the time we pick the driest model look at its sim radar and say it doesn’t match the actual radar!!! We always do this!

[hstorm]

5 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

Lived in McLean for 62 years. The difference between totals on MCLEAN and DCA is significant and real. However, the difference has gone down over years and we are unfortunately now closer to DCA‘s totals then we are IAD’s. That’s happened in the last 10 years and it sucks.

Just up the road in Great Falls, our temp/snow climo essentially mirrors IAD. Not at all comparable to DCA. 

Temp down to 35.2. 
 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

Hopefully, but by the time the precip moves in there will be a lot of mixing and you have a warm air inversion in place that often, but not always, screws things up. As a result, temps rise and the model's forecast of 38 wins.

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Hopefully, but by the time the precip moves in there will be a lot of mixing and you have a warm air inversion in place that often, but not always, screws things up. As a result, temps rise and the model's forecast of 38 wins.

When the clouds move in ahead the precip too the temps will bump back up. Always do. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

24 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why are people fight when we are about to have the best storm since 2016

You mean the best storm since January 25th?

[GreyHat]

32F/31

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, bncho said:

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

According to the SPC mesoanalysis, the 925 temps are still toasty for most of us, but we're sub zero at 850. I wonder if this is just some radiational cooling?

[winter_warlock]

Wow now down to 34.9.. my forecasted low overnight here is 34 !! I will probably go lower than that!

[MN Transplant]

19 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Will be best storm since 2016 for only people to the east of i95 ,not everyone 

I don’t think I’ll break top-5 since 2016.  

[gopper]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

colder can't hurt.  But might not be enough for early stuff.  Is early stuff supposed to be light or thumpy?  I thought it was supposed to be light.

[weathercoins]

Speaking this into existence: GFS will come west with a nice CCB over the metros 

[katabatic]

I'd like to be the first to report snow. Hi today was 49.8 but cooled off nicely to 33 now. I would absolutely love to be in New Jersey but that inconvenient thing called work is keeping me in the home office. I hope we all do well!

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

I don’t think I’ll break top-5 since 2016.  

Me neither bro !

[Jeff B]

32.4°/29°