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Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Obs Thread


Maestrobjwa
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5 minutes ago, TJ3 said:

Lived in McLean for 62 years. The difference between totals on MCLEAN and DCA is significant and real. However, the difference has gone down over years and we are unfortunately now closer to DCA‘s totals then we are IAD’s. That’s happened in the last 10 years and it sucks.

Just up the road in Great Falls, our temp/snow climo essentially mirrors IAD. Not at all comparable to DCA. 

Temp down to 35.2. 
 

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2 minutes ago, bncho said:

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

Hopefully, but by the time the precip moves in there will be a lot of mixing and you have a warm air inversion in place that often, but not always, screws things up. As a result, temps rise and the model's forecast of 38 wins.

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1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Hopefully, but by the time the precip moves in there will be a lot of mixing and you have a warm air inversion in place that often, but not always, screws things up. As a result, temps rise and the model's forecast of 38 wins.

When the clouds move in ahead the precip too the temps will bump back up. Always do. 

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Just now, bncho said:

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

According to the SPC mesoanalysis, the 925 temps are still toasty for most of us, but we're sub zero at 850. I wonder if this is just some radiational cooling?

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3 hours ago, bncho said:

That's like 2 degrees colder than the coldest model. That could be telling for the front end thump

colder can't hurt.  But might not be enough for early stuff.  Is early stuff supposed to be light or thumpy?  I thought it was supposed to be light.

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