SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said: GFS seemed like a step back. We’d really rely on the IVT. hopefully the other more western depictions of the field work out. At this point I’m going with the euro/mesos. GFS sniffed it out yes but that doesn’t mean I trust it at this range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah see this is the part of tracking where I legit get a bit turned around with all these various maps and models and knowing how to estimate where my yard stands. Especially in a marginal setup. Like some are weenie and some are terrible...and the you got the globals still. So for example if the NAME shows 15" how do I mentally turn that into a realistic forecast? Read your NWS forecast. They know how to figure it out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Rap stalls it off the coast. Little easier to read map. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 9 minutes ago, mappy said: lol damn it GFS kuchie hates me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jake Wx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Very funny how some of you guys care about the gfs 36 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 @MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 11 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: . Sold. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 21 Author Share Posted February 21 Alright so in order for me to have snow egg on my face, the final result has to reach warning level (5"+) or else it's still a bad luck week for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 While it's basically the same or a little better, I think the main thing I like is the GFS didn't go more positive again. Hopefully trends more neg tilt once more; would bring back more a more aggressive capture look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 30 minutes ago, Warm Nose said: yall killin me here. Slight chance i can get home to cut a day but will it really be worth it? All the latest stuff, I dunno. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 26 minutes ago, arlwx12 said: LWX's latest guess for DCA is 2.5. Why? I think it's the temperatures. Latest estimates are 35 at 6 pm, 33 at 9 pm, 32 finally at midnight. Mixed with rain throughout the night, so snow depth may be lower. Of course, things COULD change. It’s going to snow. Deal with it. You’ll be ok. You have 9 months of weather you like. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yall killin me here. Slight chance i can get home to cut a day but will it really be worth it? All the latest stuff, I dunno. Imo, speaking as your geographic neighbor, no. Basically none of the guidance has DC consistently booming or jackpotting in any way. 2-4" bar for success, 6"+ would be great. 8" or more? I'd be shocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nomz Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: yall killin me here. Slight chance i can get home to cut a day but will it really be worth it? All the latest stuff, I dunno. I wouldn’t. City will probably look the same for a week with how heavy the snow is anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: @MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun Keeping hope alive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Latest forecast for my yard is 9-13 late tomorrow/tomorrow night, and 1-3 on Monday. Just a tad less for Easton. Hoping to get home late Monday afternoon. Roads should be decent by then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 37 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: You buying into the west trends? I’m sure you loved seeing the euro and then especially its EPS move pretty nicely west at 12z I am tbh. This is such a dynamic setup and the fact we have all the hi-res and regionals adjusting west should give merit. Plus, EC at the eastern envelope of its own ensemble members is a red flag. These solutions with the wrap snow for hours after the meat of the storm is gone is actually classic for these large Atlantic cyclones that occlude. Makes sense the hi-res are showing these solutions. 13 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Imo, speaking as your geographic neighbor, no. Basically none of the guidance has DC consistently booming or jackpotting in any way. 2-4" bar for success, 6"+ would be great. 8" or more? I'd be shocked I wouldn’t be shocked with 8 or more, very dynamic situation and some of these mesos are throwing us bands through Monday morning. Tuck this a tiny bit more and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: @MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun I am in there! And solution man. And yes I am watching that. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 20 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: @MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun Correct! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I wouldn’t be shocked with 8 or more, very dynamic situation and some of these mesos are throwing us bands through Monday morning. Tuck this a tiny bit more and boom. I like your positivity and I agree, it could go boom. Just haven't seen that enough on guidance (a 25-50 mile shift west) to believe. But, I did just read Millvilles post and he actually knows what he's talking about unlike me lol. Maybe I should have more confidence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Paleocene said: I like your positivity and I agree, it could go boom. Just haven't seen that enough on guidance (a 25-50 mile shift west) to believe. But, I did just read Millvilles post and he actually knows what he's talking about unlike me lol. Maybe I should have more confidence With a massive storm bombing right off the coast nothing would surprise me really. Could easily go boom for us. Will it? Who knows, hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I am in there! And solution man. And yes I am watching that. I like that very much, yes I do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: @MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun Just in that eastern edge! Hopefully it'll tick a hair west at gametime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I am tbh. This is such a dynamic setup and the fact we have all the hi-res and regionals adjusting west should give merit. Plus, EC at the eastern envelope of its own ensemble members is a red flag. These solutions with the wrap snow for hours after the meat of the storm is gone is actually classic for these large Atlantic cyclones that occlude. Makes sense the hi-res are showing these solutions. Great writeup in your WPC analysis, and great thoughts! I believe some pages back in this thread, someone posted the EC ensembles and they were clearly clustered more to the west and the deterministic was on the eastern end of the spread as you mention. Don't know if anyone posted the GEFS (if that's relevant), whether they're farther west than the deterministic GFS, etc. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 7 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I like that very much, yes I do 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Man the IVT soundings on the NAM are nasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol damn it GFS kuchie hates me Probably because you’re just outside the CCB and getting the subsidence. My snow, at least per gfs kuchie, is a combo of accumulating daytime snow (thank you elevation) and being on or in edge of CCB later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxtrix Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Correct! i hope so. i certainly wasn't expecting a WSW this morning when I woke up, so i guess anything could happen. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Just now, Wxtrix said: i hope so. i certainly wasn't expecting an WSW this when I woke up, so i guess anything could happen. For sure! That norlun feature is going to be pretty incredible. I hope you and the WV/Winchester/South-Central PA peeps can catch it if the models have that correctly placed. Easy 1+”/hr rates expected in that thing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dendrimer77 Posted February 21 Share Posted February 21 Instead of a K U in Charlottesville this winter, we keep getting a big F U Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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