2/22-23 "There's no way..." Storm Part 2

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

GFS seemed like a step back. We’d really rely on the IVT. 
 

hopefully the other more western depictions of the field work out. 

At this point I’m going with the euro/mesos. GFS sniffed it out yes but that doesn’t mean I trust it at this range. 

[CAPE]

57 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah see this is the part of tracking where I legit get a bit turned around with all these various maps and models and knowing how to estimate where my yard stands. Especially in a marginal setup. Like some are weenie and some are terrible...and the you got the globals still. So for example if the NAME shows 15" how do I mentally turn that into a realistic forecast?

Read your NWS forecast. They know how to figure it out.

[mitchnick]

Rap stalls it off the coast. Little easier to read map.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

lol damn it GFS kuchie hates me 

[Jake Wx]

Very funny how some of you guys care about the gfs 36 hours out

[midatlanticweather]

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

[LeesburgWx]

11 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

.

Sold. Yes please 

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright so in order for me to have snow egg on my face, the final result has to reach warning level (5"+) or else it's still a bad luck week for snow 

[baltosquid]

While it's basically the same or a little better, I think the main thing I like is the GFS didn't go more positive again. Hopefully trends more neg tilt once more; would bring back more a more aggressive capture look.

[stormtracker]

30 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

 yall killin me here.  Slight chance i can get home to cut a day but will it really be worth it? All the latest stuff, I dunno. 

[stormtracker]

26 minutes ago, arlwx12 said:

LWX's latest guess for DCA is 2.5.

Why?

I think it's the temperatures. Latest estimates are 35 at 6 pm, 33 at 9 pm, 32 finally at midnight.

Mixed with rain throughout the night, so snow depth may be lower.

Of course, things COULD change.

 

It’s going to snow. Deal with it. You’ll be ok. You have 9 months of weather you like. 

[Paleocene]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 yall killin me here.  Slight chance i can get home to cut a day but will it really be worth it? All the latest stuff, I dunno. 

Imo, speaking as your geographic neighbor, no. Basically none of the guidance has DC consistently booming or jackpotting in any way. 2-4" bar for success, 6"+ would be great. 8" or more? I'd be shocked 

[Nomz]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

 yall killin me here.  Slight chance i can get home to cut a day but will it really be worth it? All the latest stuff, I dunno. 

I wouldn’t. City will probably look the same for a week with how heavy the snow is anyways.

[Grothar of Herndon]

14 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

Keeping hope alive!

[CAPE]

Latest forecast for my yard is 9-13 late tomorrow/tomorrow night, and 1-3 on Monday. Just a tad less for Easton. Hoping to get home late Monday afternoon. Roads should be decent by then.

[MillvilleWx]

37 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You buying into the west trends? I’m sure you loved seeing the euro and then especially its EPS move pretty nicely west at 12z 

I am tbh. This is such a dynamic setup and the fact we have all the hi-res and regionals adjusting west should give merit. Plus, EC at the eastern envelope of its own ensemble members is a red flag. These solutions with the wrap snow for hours after the meat of the storm is gone is actually classic for these large Atlantic cyclones that occlude. Makes sense the hi-res are showing these solutions. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Imo, speaking as your geographic neighbor, no. Basically none of the guidance has DC consistently booming or jackpotting in any way. 2-4" bar for success, 6"+ would be great. 8" or more? I'd be shocked 

I wouldn’t be shocked with 8 or more, very dynamic situation and some of these mesos are throwing us bands through Monday morning.  Tuck this a tiny bit more and boom.  

[BristowWx]

18 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

I am in there!  And solution man.  And yes I am watching that.  

[MillvilleWx]

20 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

Correct! 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I wouldn’t be shocked with 8 or more, very dynamic situation and some of these mesos are throwing us bands through Monday morning.  Tuck this a tiny bit more and boom.  

I like your positivity and I agree, it could go boom. Just haven't seen that enough on guidance (a 25-50 mile shift west) to believe. But, I did just read Millvilles post and he actually knows what he's talking about unlike me lol. Maybe I should have more confidence

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Paleocene said:

I like your positivity and I agree, it could go boom. Just haven't seen that enough on guidance (a 25-50 mile shift west) to believe. But, I did just read Millvilles post and he actually knows what he's talking about unlike me lol. Maybe I should have more confidence

With a massive storm bombing right off the coast nothing would surprise me really.  Could easily go boom for us.  Will it? Who knows, hopefully. 

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I am in there!  And solution man.  And yes I am watching that.  

I like that very much, yes I do

[bncho]

26 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

@MillvilleWx - This the area that you are watching for the norlun

Just in that eastern edge! Hopefully it'll tick a hair west at gametime

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I am tbh. This is such a dynamic setup and the fact we have all the hi-res and regionals adjusting west should give merit. Plus, EC at the eastern envelope of its own ensemble members is a red flag. These solutions with the wrap snow for hours after the meat of the storm is gone is actually classic for these large Atlantic cyclones that occlude. Makes sense the hi-res are showing these solutions. 

Great writeup in your WPC analysis, and great thoughts!  I believe some pages back in this thread, someone posted the EC ensembles and they were clearly clustered more to the west and the deterministic was on the eastern end of the spread as you mention.  Don't know if anyone posted the GEFS (if that's relevant), whether they're farther west than the deterministic GFS, etc.

[BristowWx]

7 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I like that very much, yes I do

[SnowenOutThere]

Man the IVT soundings on the NAM are nasty

[mappy]

33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol damn it GFS kuchie hates me 

Probably because you’re just outside the CCB and getting the subsidence. My snow, at least per gfs kuchie, is a combo of accumulating daytime snow (thank you elevation) and being on or in edge of CCB later

[Wxtrix]

16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Correct! 

i hope so. i certainly wasn't expecting a WSW this morning when I woke up, so i guess anything could happen.

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Wxtrix said:

i hope so. i certainly wasn't expecting an WSW this when I woke up, so i guess anything could happen.

For sure! That norlun feature is going to be pretty incredible. I hope you and the WV/Winchester/South-Central PA peeps can catch it if the models have that correctly placed. Easy 1+”/hr rates expected in that thing. 

[Dendrimer77]

Instead of a K U in Charlottesville this winter, we keep getting a big F U