Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[hstorm]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

If you are sick then you probably shouldn't be flying.  Need to think of others.  

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

Still time to miss the flight

[LP08]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

Houston’s lovely if you are love big traffic and interstates ❤️ 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

There are some really good breweries in Houston. Let me know if you need recommendations. 

[Interstate]

9 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM looks pretty good so far. If it climbs and tucks. Man 

Yeah... just need it to go negative a couple hours earlier

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah... just need it to go negative a couple hours earlier

It was close to going bonkers for sure

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, rjvanals said:

It was more temp related than anything just a bunch of white rain 

Temp related 100% but that's how the screwjob would happen. DC starts as rain, coastal happens too west, then we miss the IVT

[osfan24]

NAM a step back for our area. Maybe a step toward non-GFS guidance?

[SnowGolfBro]

Just now, Interstate said:

Yeah... just need it to go negative a couple hours earlier

VERY close to the good GFS solutions. It’s gonna be a long day lol

[rjvanals]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

The airlines clearly don't believe the GFS or NAM since they haven't offered to waive change fees yet for east coast destinations 

[Interstate]

Just now, osfan24 said:

NAM a step back for our area. Maybe a step toward non-GFS guidance?

I do not know how it is a step back for Baltimore north.

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

NAM a step back for our area. Maybe a step toward non-GFS guidance?

Are we looking at the same run?. 

[Interstate]

THIS IS OUR STORM!!!

[Interstate]

and as for the 3K... the meat of the storm is after the end of it run

[dailylurker]

4 minutes ago, Thewiledcard said:

OCMD trip anyone?

You spelled Annopoils wrong 

[rjvanals]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temp related 100% but that's how the screwjob would happen. DC starts as rain, coastal happens too west, then we miss the IVT

I could definitely see that happening. I still have a strong feeling this storm could end up being a total rug pull.

[Ji]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

NAM looks pretty good so far. If it climbs and tucks. Man 

Just issue a winter storm watch. you can always downgrade it---but its fun to be under one where its warranted or not!

[LP08]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temp related 100% but that's how the screwjob would happen. DC starts as rain, coastal happens too west, then we miss the IVT

It’s maybe not as good as the 12k but the majority of our accumulation is post 57. Coastal portion is kinda just starting.

[LeesburgWx]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temp related 100% but that's how the screwjob would happen. DC starts as rain, coastal happens too west, then we miss the IVT

I'll buy this

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

NAM a step back for our area. Maybe a step toward non-GFS guidance?

Step back???  Looks like it was better than 06z!

[AlexD1990]

6 minutes ago, yoda said:

Fwiw. 10:1 12z NAM 

 

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, LP08 said:

It’s maybe not as good as the 12k but the majority of our accumulation is post 57. Coastal portion is kinda just starting.

Agree - just the NAM has 3-5" OTG for DC proper at the time. Stuff to resolve there. Willing to blend the two for now and rely on 3k tomorrow

Could always make it a heckuva chase... start in the Shenandoah's, drive to assateague... 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You gotta like your spot for this one. How is your guest bedroom situation?

lol pretty messy. I have a lot of stuff in there.

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Interstate said:

THIS IS OUR STORM!!!

got to say, you have kept the faith on this one. If it does end up panning out, i think you should get naming rights.

[Solution Man]

10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Temp related 100% but that's how the screwjob would happen. DC starts as rain, coastal happens too west, then we miss the IVT

The Raleigh whiff for D.C. 

[clueless]

5 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

You really shouldn’t get on an airplane. Out of a courtesy for others of course

ALTHOUGH margaritas may be pretty good Houston. Plus Lucy has always gotten the best of us for too many years. Toss up IMO. 

[North Balti Zen]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I’m going to be sick. 

That's great news! Means you can't go to Houston!

[EstorilM]

Just now, Ji said:

Just issue a winter storm watch. you can always downgrade it---but its fun to be under one where its warranted or not!

Nah IMO with the temp profiles and this thing looking very coastal (I don't think we get the tilt early enough to bring it too far west of I-95) I think this is more of an advisory event for us unfortunately. 

Criteria for LWX is 5" - then again a watch means it only needs to be "possible" so... 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Yeah this. I was gonna say, whoah nelly. The last frame of the 3k looks like this... more to come. 

That's 6z?

[osfan24]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Step back???  Looks like it was better than 06z!

Yeah maybe more like a hold. I’m looking at where the big totals are, not whether we went up or down a couple of inches. Seems that area shifted northeast from 6z.