Feb 22nd/23rd "There's no way..." Storm Thread

[snowfan]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is only one model showing the coastal bombing and tucking and that (gfs) gives me 1.5 qpf. I’ll be just fine if that happens!  But unless you’re in ocean city nothing else is even close with the CCB associated precip. Do I want the gfs to be right YES. But since that’s very unlikely, even now, I’m rooting for what is the better way more probable path to snow.  
 

The better trend on the other 18z guidance was enough to enhance the IVT with a close coastal but make no mistake without the IVT we are still always from all other guidance showing a hit from the actual miller b. We’d need another 2 shifts like the one we just for. Possible but rare I’ve seen the kind of amplification adjustment we need in the dozens of times we’ve been in this exact spot But that IVT can train moisture in off the developing coastal I’ve seen that happen way more often. 

Sir, you have exceeded the daily 1,000,000 character limit.

[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

SS was actually a hair worse... if 0z brings that back.......

we might have a chance. I'm starting to believe in this one. 

Shoutout to @Interstate for always believing, @stormtracker for the excellent PBP as always, @Maestrobjwa for the thread, @IUsedToHateCold for the nat 20 roll, and @SnowenOutThere for the great synoptic analysis! 

Eh, you might have forgotten someone on the great analysis 

[wxmeddler]

Holy Shift

[midatlanticweather]

Inverted troughs are jumpy. Still has that feel of a rug pull east for the west guys. I think this has always been the risk, just seeing extra precip is good. Of note, 18z Euro also likes to play with our emotions. It did back with the Carolina storm.. Let's see models actually trend. 

Mr pessimist here. 

[Imgoinhungry]

Sigh. Now im going to be up to 1:30 watching tonight’s model runs.


.

[87storms]

5 minutes ago, bncho said:

January 2000 levels of caving 

You must not have been here for that one lol. Light snow was predicted at the 5pm newscasts. 6-10” was on the ground by the morning.

[mappy]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Eh, you might have forgotten someone on the great analysis 

Kids amirite

[bncho]

Euro AIFS improved by a lot

[T. August]

16 minutes ago, bncho said:

Jackpot

[stormtracker]

So, 0z should legit be telling.  Fresh data and all that jazz.  One of these models is going to cave to the other

[clueless]

176 members logged in. That’s nuts. 

[bncho]

[mappy]

1 minute ago, 87storms said:

You must not have been here for that one lol. Light snow was predicted at the 5pm newscasts. 6-10” was on the ground by the morning.

Lol was he even alive? And was that a total model failure? I mean obviously tech was what it was (I was in HS). But I do remember the freak out at the 11pm news. 

[clskinsfan]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The IVT is responsible for 75% of that snow on the euro. It’s still our best chance of significant snow. If the coastal is closer it can help enhance that and it might seem like it’s part of the coastal but unless the gfs actually scores a coup nothing else shows our area (outside maybe the Delmarva) getting into the developing CCB snowfall from the miller b coastal. Even the much improved 18z euro all our snow is from the moisture training along the IVT. 

This is what they dont get. We either get the IVT or we get jumped. Know your climo and shit....

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

Holy moly! 

[Climate175]

1 minute ago, clueless said:

176 members logged in. That’s nuts. 

I noticed that too. Lot of eyes over here lol.

[Jake Wx]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

WOW!

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

Sigh. Now im going to be up to 1:30 watching tonight’s model runs.


.

As long as the GFS basically holds tonight you can go to bed and wake up at 430

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

Jackpot

Work in progress. Now that it has figured out the key upper level features that the GFS has had for many runs now(that no other model has depicted) it should get better. We shall see.

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what they dont get. We either get the IVT or we get jumped. Know your climo and shit....

Yeah but sometimes you score a win even with climo. 

[mappy]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what they dont get. We either get the IVT or we get jumped. Know your climo and shit....

Yep. Qpf and climo

[Kay]

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Nobody here cares about the reason why though lol.. its all about the goddamn snow maps.

Some of us are quietly following the evolution and quietly paying attention to the reasoning and the detailed posts. 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I literally identified the differences aloft less than an hour ago, and the Euro has made a BIG step towards the GFS. I might go back to my technical thread now lol.

I think @LP08 identified some of this too, briefly. Your post was more detailed. Just saying - some of us do read more post less, but we see the posts and appreciate them.

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Sir, you have exceeded the daily 1,000,000 character limit.

Peace. Enjoy all the snow maps and “omg” posts 

[Paleocene]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what they dont get. We either get the IVT or we get jumped. Know your climo and shit....

Lol I understand the synoptics. I was joking about PSUs 10,099 posts in 39 seconds about the IVT. I'll run away with my tail tucked between my legs now

[baltosquid]

big improvement with lows

[T. August]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Work in progress. Now that it has figured out the key upper level features that the GFS has had for many runs now(that no other model has depicted) it should get better. We shall see.

For sure, plus that will definitely bounce around a bit. My jackpot comment was in jest, referring to less than 1” in my neighborhood lol. Verbatim it’s a heartbreaker.

[CAPE]

Just now, Kay said:

Some of us are quietly following the evolution and quietly paying attention to the reasoning and the detailed posts. 

I think @LP08 identified some of this too, briefly. Your post was more detailed. Just saying - some of us do read more post less, but we see the posts and appreciate them.

Yeah I didn't really mean nobody- more like few

That's why I made the other thread.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

EPS precip made a huge shift west as expected based on that 500 map.  

[Cobalt]

1 minute ago, baltosquid said:

big improvement with lows

comical run-to-run difference. We'd have to hope it has a similar shift in store at 0z...