“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Johnno]

Was it Boxing Day 91 corridor areas were in the bullseye right up till go time and then the death band set up to the west of us?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Heaviest stuff looks like it rolls in this area at 5-6am.. alarm will be set early

Yep…5-8am…maybe as early as 4am for far SE MA…is when the convective stuff rips into eastern MA. 

[CoastalWx]

3k still has a good fronto signal way back in western CT. 

[CoastalWx]

Hoping that arc of convection can make it a little further north into Metro Boston.

[Bryan63]

Thinking about sending the wife and kids my mother in laws house with a full house generator just to be safe. Not sure I want to be stuck in a power and heat less house with a 7 and 2 year old.

[Spanks45]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

3k still has a good fronto signal way back in western CT. 

I know its the RGEM, but man that thing has been stubborn....I know I can worry a bit, but there are definitely some red flags for the big numbers out this way, been there, done that situation for sure

[FXWX]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

There's some normalization going on in the NAM back east, too.   It's subtle, but ex, Login was 53 kts in the middle BL sustained wind fields yesterday, and now it is only 41 in the FOUS grid.    The QPF is down a bit too.   It's also down in PHL and NYC compared to what it was yesterday.   

I suspect yesterday's cinemas were the max d-drippers for this storm's modeling movie, and now we're just going to end up with a major and not much more overall.  Fine. 

I say this ...not just because of the NAM, but there's a 10 ... 12% amplitude theft going on across the board as we've entered these late modeling innings. 

(note, I'm not incorporating the HRRR or the like).   

Now-cast could perhaps bring the theft back, ... but, since that behavior has been noted over recent years worth of modeling ( actually), it's sort of built in confidence/expectation to take place.    As an aside, it seems what we haven't seen is a modeled system that started out meager and grew 8% per run until go time.  It seems like technology favors going the other way, either by error or design... We're always giving back in the closing arguments.    

 

Not a trolling inquiry, but do you now think this is (just) a major event and a high end occurrence?  Do you think snow totals should be cutback region wide, along with dropping wind gust levels? 

[DJln491]

some people are going to get a foot of snow and be pissed

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hoping that arc of convection can make it a little further north into Metro Boston.

Don’t open it

[moneypitmike]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re gonna be ribbing MPM for years if he buys a place in Mattapoisett and then misses a top 3-5 storm there all time. 

 

I should have done like Jeff and just checked out at 12z on Friday.

[tiger_deF]

1 minute ago, DJln491 said:

some people are going to get a foot of snow and be pissed

I’m melting over anything less than 18”

[Torch Tiger]

39 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

For someone who claims they love only big wind, wound up coastals, this is truly a shit post.

expectations were very low and no one's complaining, and hopefully SE areas get a good storm.

[Kitz Craver]

8 minutes ago, SJonesWX said:

he is ATATT. All troll all the time.

he is definitely trying too hard, again.

I have said it before, but I don’t know why the entire forum doesn’t have him on ignore. his next genuine post will be his first.

He will pepper in an occasional legit post to throw us off though, lol

[Torch Tiger]

3 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

some people are going to get a foot of snow and be pissed

a foot. Wow

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

I know its the RGEM, but man that thing has been stubborn....I know I can worry a bit, but there are definitely some red flags for the big numbers out this way, been there, done that situation for sure

ha…how did it manage to go more se?

[CoastalWx]

Icon looked good here and Rgem still scoffs 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said:

expectations were very low and no one's complaining, and hopefully SE areas get a good storm.

Ehhh the post I commented on was a hyperbolic downplay

[SouthCoastMA]

ICON/IEPS juiced up the qpf a bit for SEMA. now solidly over 2"

[George001]

11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep…5-8am…maybe as early as 4am for far SE MA…is when the convective stuff rips into eastern MA. 

Im going to set my alarm. This is going to be a historic burial here.

[HoarfrostHubb]

34 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It’s been light, small flakes all morning in Greenfield.  Setting the mood. 

Just walked the dog around our neighborhood.  Our DPW appears to have just said “fuck it”.  Road is pretty narrow.  Must be resting up for tomorrow

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Icon looked good here and Rgem still scoffs 

RGEM has consistently had that coastal locked enhancement right along EPYM county..it basically just hugs the shore. I havent seen that in other mesos. Either way, weird how that model has been steadfast in its eastern lean

[kdxken]

Sorry if it's been posted

[MuddyWx]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Im going to set my alarm. This is going to be a historic burial here.

Will you be measuring throughout? I want to see some verification of those crazy rates

[Masswx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

RGEM has consistently had that coastal locked enhancement right along EPYM county..it basically just hugs the shore. I havent seen that in other mesos. Either way, weird how that model has been steadfast in its eastern lean

The cmc has had it too might be Canadian thing

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

ICON/IEPS juiced up the qpf a bit for SEMA. now solidly over 2"

Yeah, solid trends 

[George001]

Just now, MuddyWx said:

Will you be measuring throughout? I want to see some verification of those crazy rates

Yeah, going to be tricky with the drifting but I’m going to clear the deck every few hours, going to take measurements when I do so.

[The 4 Seasons]

Final call, no change. 1-2' mostly region wide with 2'+ SE MA and Ocean/Monmouth counties

 

[SouthCoastMA]

BOX has had this strange relative snowfall min depicted in SE PYM county. Not sure I follow the basis for that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Not a trolling inquiry, but do you now think this is (just) a major event and a high end occurrence?  Do you think snow totals should be cutback region wide, along with dropping wind gust levels? 

I'd like another model cycle.   I'd say if the 18z's roll in with another of this seeming attempt to get a reduction by our noses, we might consider limiting this to major headlines. 

Also ...  the difference between a "major" event and something say, top 5/history and so forth, isn't likely to register much differently in the high 90s percentile population.  Just being a member of the species and modern culture ( lol ), but intuitively the individual would see 1/8th mi vis and snow 3/4 the way up their SUV's tire wells, and figure for a well handled event.  perhaps the distinction is more for us in that sense. 

This storm is idiosyncratically compact, and if it bumps 50 mi E, we're just going to have to consider that when it comes to snowfall distribution.  Now-cast workout...  SE Mass could take a particular pummeling, even in a shaded total system profile. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

2 minutes ago, Masswx said:

The cmc has had it too might be Canadian thing

They are too busy watching the game