“Cory’s in NYC! Let’s HECS!” Feb. 22-24 Disco

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Talking to @The 4 Seasons earlier, this track is closer to a Feb 2013 than any of the other big ones.. For SNE I like that the band will be mature as it moves in, I've noticed sometimes the banding matures too far northeast for my location.  965-975mb low with 25 miles of benchmark, mature banding overhead, bands rotting over us on Monday.  You have to go big totals. 

I'm just stoked I don't have to sniff taint on this one!

[SouthCoastMA]

Ah pulling out the SREFS I see. god speed. 

[Bostonseminole]

I think I’m in a good spot right at route in Cambridge, currently in the Alewife area. Seems 14-18 is doable


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[Bostonseminole]

I think I’m in a good spot right at route 2 in Cambridge, currently in the Alewife area. Seems 14-18 is doable


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[WxWatcher007]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

I'm doing maps now, will have out shortly, lets just say it won't be conservative. Too close in and want it to be a final, if possible.

I did a morning update telegraphing that the numbers were coming up, and that should suffice for now.

Won’t be conservative on the final, I think. Maybe 16-24” lollipops of 30…

But we got smoked up here in Barrow last night and I have a ton of driveway clearing to do and my wife is all over me about paying more attention to the weather than her. So evening final call for me.   

[Modfan2]

What kind of ratios are we getting with this? Is it a foot of cement or some fluff factor with it?

[moneypitmike]

22 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Lol tequila sunrise

West but way south 

[Prismshine Productions]

What kind of ratios are we getting with this? Is it a foot of cement or some fluff factor with it?

10-12:1

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[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I think 36 is the ceiling 

Yeah can’t rule out some 30-burgers. Someone gets stuck under a death band will likely see it. 

[Prismshine Productions]

@40/70 Benchmark with 1.6 on the SREF... bet he is going to wake up the kids and his wife from how giddy in excitement he is going to be

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[Chrisrotary12]

19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The way I know this is a good one is waking up and reviewing all the guidance and saying “I think 15” is the floor here”

I wish I felt as confident here. Just got some January 2022 PTSD

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Chrisrotary12 said:

I wish I felt as confident here. Just got some January 2022 PTSD

I think this would have to trend a couple ticks east to be more like Jan 2022…it’s always possible but it seems unlikely this close in given the way all the guidance looks. 

[Hoth]

This is going to usher in a traffic apocalypse in New Haven. They did such a shit job with the January storm that there are still plenty of streets partially blocked and down to basically one lane of traffic for both directions. Also, it looks like they've depleted their mountain of salt by I-91. Going to be a fun commute to the office Monday.

[The 4 Seasons]

RAP GW

That thing is tucked and just crawls E/NE

QPF and its not even done

[moneypitmike]

Heading down to mattapoisett now….should be there in time to play catch up on 12z gfs reviews.  Would live to read “crosses the cape”.  

[WxWatcher007]

11 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I'm just stoked I don't have to sniff taint on this one!

Hear me out though…if you did…you’d be a hero to us all. 

Just messing. Good luck down there. Should get crushed. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Just now, Hoth said:

This is going to usher in a traffic apocalypse in New Haven. They did such a shit job with the January storm that there are still plenty of streets partially blocked and down to basically one lane of traffic for both directions. Also, it looks like they've depleted their mountain of salt by I-91. Going to be a fun commute to the office Monday.

the funny thing no one knows really how big or serious this storm is or even talking about it that much. Compared to Jan 25-26th, there was so much hype and news coverage. Obviously it was a much bigger storm overall that was visibly trackable across the US while this hasn't even developed yet. Not to mention it affected NM to ME. Just seeing the difference is pretty incredible but it makes sense. 

[CoastalWx]

This may have Feb 2013 type tree damage on south shore. Heavy wet snow as it pounds and then temp falls with those winds. Gfs Bufkit is insane. Has 75-80krs at top of boundary layer. 

[wx2fish]

Wind will be a limiting factor on ratios. Otherwise, the soundings looks really good. Pretty deep dgz right in the 700-500 range. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah I don’t see Jan 2022 here. This will send a death band way NW even if it doesn’t last as long. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

There will be a NEMO band somewhere - 2 faves right now are Monmouth county then SEMASS

Just not Tblizz

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, wx2fish said:

Wind will be a limiting factor on ratios. Otherwise, the soundings looks really good. Pretty deep dgz right in the 700-500 range. 

I was noticing that just a few min ago looking at soundings. Deep DGZ on just about all guidance. Interior death band could produce some ratios. Won’t be Dec 2020 style but even in storms like Feb 2013, there were at least decent ratios despite the wind. Closer to the coast it’s probably just just too windy. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Funny thing is some of the totals might be less than Jan 26, but the snow will be denser and the winds will make this much more impactful. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just not Tblizz

Rent free 

[Damage In Tolland]

Some Nemo similarities 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, Johnno said:

Beauty, runaway will be happy

We happy. We horny. 
 

Lets Fuking Snow!

[SnoSki14]

14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

RAP GW

That thing is tucked and just crawls E/NE

QPF and its not even done

How accurate is this that far out?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Some Nemo similarities 

I agree. 
 

People now more than ever have this insane fascination about death bands. I say just sit back and enjoy it. I don’t really see the storm as having someone getting screwed unless you’re way outside the snow zone.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

How accurate is this that far out?

Not much 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I agree. 
 

People now more than ever have this insane fascination about death bands. I say just sit back and enjoy it. I don’t really see the storm as having someone getting screwed unless you’re way outside the snow zone.

EMAWX calling for States of Emergency!

https://x.com/ray9590/status/2025047143631794649?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg