Winter Storm Threat Feb 22-24th

[MJO812]

[nycsnow]

[nycsnow]

AI eps

[Nibor]

17 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Bad call.  Major improvement vs. 12Z, both in surface low being over 100 miles NW and actually getting 1-3" along 95 and 3-4" towards the NJ coast, vs nada at 12Z.  Looks similar to 6Z which people were gushing over.  

 

I said it came west and improved at 500 mb? Sorry I should have said grazer and posted a snow map. 

[SACRUS]

 

Creeping back up

 

[nycsnow]

[ron1660]

Kong is King.

[WeatherGeek2025]

2 hours ago, Jt17 said:

Weathergeek - how do we feel about euro AI your favorite looking terrible still, while every other model improved? Wondering how you are handling this emotionally.


.

i don't like it i don't know what to do now! guess we wait

[Jt17]

i don't like it i don't know what to do now! guess we wait

Deep breaths


.

[Irish]

20 minutes ago, ron1660 said:

Kong is King.

Umm... sure 

[EastonSN+]

First up NAM end of run.

[Mail Man]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

First up NAM end of run.

It's the long range nam doesn't mean anything yet.

[SACRUS]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

First up NAM end of run.

Compares to the GFS at the same range its much flatter or slower.

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

It's the long range nam doesn't mean anything yet.

Yup just one of the models 

[Mail Man]

I don't think the Icon wants to play ball yet.

[SACRUS]

 

2/19 00z ICON

 

 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

I don't think the Icon wants to play ball yet.

Less confluence but the trough wasn't sharp enough.

[SACRUS]

 

2/18 00z ICON

Total QPF 

 

[Mail Man]

I think RGEM had a better look maybe it could of done something.

[SACRUS]

 

RGEM did look much better tgan the NAM / ICOn and more in line with the 18z GFS

 

[Mail Man]

AIGFS is looking better

[Wxbear25]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I cant get on board until I see support from the Euro-sorry

Right, but there’s a difference between not being on board and declaring the threat dead and that it’s time to move on lol

[Wxbear25]

3 minutes ago, Mail Man said:

AIGFS is looking better

It is better. Not quite there yet, but def an improvement aloft

[Mail Man]

Too early to tell but GFS looks like the 18z 

[Wxbear25]

Just now, Mail Man said:

Too early to tell but GFS looks like the 18z 

at hr 84, heights a little lower ahead of it which is bad, but the ULL is strengthening much faster and the vorticity rotating around it looks to be in a good spot and orientation

Dunno if it will get us to where we need to be, but that ULL strengthening over the Ohio River Valley could help pump heights up and slow the whole thing down more giving more time to turn up the coast as opposed to NE

[Mail Man]

Snowing in South Jersey in hour 93

[Mail Man]

Bomb

[WeatherGeek2025]

1 minute ago, Mail Man said:

Snowing in South Jersey in hour 93

very similar stronger by 2 millibars and west by 7-8 miles

[SACRUS]

 

2/19 00z GFS

 

[WeatherGeek2025]

doesn't climb as much north precip wise to me it's noise that's a strong system